Delphi Study: social actors and trends in the Brazilian health care system

This article summarizes the Final Report published by the Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, containing the results of the Delphi Study conducted in 2000 with the objective of identifying the main health trends in Brazil in the first decade of the 21st century, according to opinion-makers selected from various social segments most directly involved in issues in their respective sectors. A total of 138 panelists were interviewed, of whom 105 (76.1%) participated in both stages of the study (1st and 2nd questionnaires). The first major general conclusion is the improbability of any scenario involving a break with the current model. The second refers to the presence of contradictory opinions among the different groups on numerous issues. The healthy absence of a single line of thought is displayed even when all segments represented in the panel point in the same direction, since the degree of optimism (or pessimism) differs from one group to another.

Health System; Prospective Studies; Delphi Study

Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz Rua Leopoldo Bulhões, 1480 , 21041-210 Rio de Janeiro RJ Brazil, Tel.:+55 21 2598-2511, Fax: +55 21 2598-2737 / +55 21 2598-2514 - Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil