Villes et Violence: Une Analyse Empirique du Cas du Costa Rica

Gimenez, Gregorio; Tkacheva, Liubov; Svitková, Katarína; Barrado, Beatriz

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ARTIGOS ORIGINAIS • Dados rev. ciênc. sociais 64 (1) • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/dados.2021.64.1.225 copy

Villes et Violence: Une Analyse Empirique du Cas du Costa Rica

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

RÉSUMÉ

Cet article se concentre sur l’effet de l’urbanisation sur la criminalité violente – en particulier l’homicide au Costa Rica. Bien que la violence soit un problème majeur dans toute l’Amérique Latine, peu d’études empiriques menées dans la région utilisent des bases de données socio-économiques et criminelles de haute qualité avec un niveau élevé de désagrégation géographique. Dans cet article, on utilise les données des 473 districts du Costa Rica entre 2010 et 2013. On développe un modèle qui prend en compte les problèmes d’endogénéité et utilise des contrastes de prédictions linéaires marginales. On conclut que le degré de concentration urbaine joue un rôle clé dans l’explication des taux d’homicides, toutes choses étant égales par ailleurs. Cet effet est progressif: plus la concentration urbaine est élevée, plus l’augmentation des taux d’homicides est importante. Cette relation de cause à effet n’est pas observée dans les infractions autres que l’homicide.

crime; violence urbaine; villes; Amérique Latine; Costa Rica

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Police force	-0,024	-0,034**	-0,032**	-0,035**
	(0,016)	(0,016)	(0,016)	(0,018)
Population density	0,128***	0,101***	0,115***	0,112***
	(0,032)	(0,032)	(0,033)	(0,033)
Annual population growth	-3,835	-5,187*	-6,346**	-5,398*
	(2,987)	(3,009)	(3,054)	(3,030)
Men	-4,308	-2,118	-1,537	-2,397
	(5,220)	(5,228)	(5,266)	(5,213)
Immigrants	5,179	4,835	5,718	4,813
	(3,739)	(3,720)	(3,966)	(3,759)
Gini index	1,546	1,834	1,249	1,664
	(1,311)	(1,289)	(1,322)	(1,349)
Poverty index (unsatisfied basic needs)	2,994***	3,300***	3,982***	3,410***
	(0,646)	(0,656)	(0,750)	(0,670)
Unemployment rate	11,463***	9,199**	7,787*	8,911**
	(4,354)	(4,187)	(4,144)	(4,172)
Average schooling years +15	0,122*	0,048	0,303**	0,067
	(0,071)	(0,073)	(0,134)	(0,075)

Urban Effects
Urban population %		0,797***	2,790***
		(0,185)	(0,987)
Urban*Average schooling years +15			-0,270**
			(0,125)
Urban category
1. <20 percentiles				(base)
2. 20-40 percentiles				0,301**
				(0,128)
3. 40-60 percentiles				0,475**
				(0,189)
4. 60-80 percentiles				0,543***
				(0,190)
5. >80 percentiles				0,692***
				(0,162)
Constant	-0,091	-1,061	-3,134	-1,013
	(2,874)	(2,871)	(3,161)	(2,849)
Number of districts	459	459	459	459
R2	0,192	0,220	0,229	0,223
Adjusted R2	0,176	0,203	0,210	0,200

Urban group	F	P>F	Contrast	[95% Conf. Interval]
(2 vs 1)	5.55	0.019	0.301	[0.05, 0.553]
			(0.128)
(3 vs <3)	4.37	0.037	0.370	[0.022, 0.718]
			(0.177)
(4 vs <4)	3.92	0.048	0.347)	[0.003, 0.692]
			(0.175)
(5 vs <5)	10.8	0.001	0.446	[0.179, 0.713]
			(0.136)
Joint	4.99	0.0006

	Mugging	Robbery of items in vehicles	Robbery with violence from people	Robbery without violence from people	Robbery (non residential without violence)	Robbery (residential without violence	"Theft (non residential with violence)	Theft (non residential without violence)	Theft (residential with violence)	Theft (residential without violence)	Vehicle theft
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)
Police force	0,142	-0,049	-0,001	0,285	0,031	-0,051	0,256	0,062	0,032	-0,017	0,169
	(0,733)	(0,220)	(0,023)	(0,967)	(0,282)	(0,092)	(0,222)	(0,066)	(0,206)	(0,028)	(0,143)
Population density	-0,410	-0,188	-0,064	-3,029	-1,088	-0,097	-0,674*	0,041	-0,618**	-0,029	0,444
	(2,647)	(0,418)	(0,043)	(3,176)	(0,965)	(0,140)	(0,378)	(0,186)	(0,256)	(0,032)	(0,316)
Annual population growth	-565,550**	-59,241	-6,361	-519,727*	-166,673*	-7,776	-63,821	-40,378**	76,674	-4,182	-52,704*
	(254,349)	(52,337)	(5,751)	(300,879)	(92,669)	(21,040)	(42,467)	(17,982)	(49,101)	(3,949)	(27,059)
Men	-609,736	-19,736	4,062	-567,582	-208,863	15,659	27,580	-38,922	52,885	-5,465	-16,540
	(423,510)	(65,284)	(13,106)	(511,936)	(156,094)	(27,635)	(68,221)	(28,520)	(57,868)	(6,997)	(43,778)
Immigrants	488,444*	196,305**	8,940	576,292*	197,143*	47,617*	60,220	32,877*	38,843	6,181	69,495**
	(272,399)	(78,841)	(5,929)	(325,361)	(103,479)	(28,305)	(47,028)	(19,644)	(45,696)	(4,981)	(33,208)
Gini index	-71,229	41,291**	4,307*	8,426	3,344	36,091***	45,958***	-9,007	79,816***	-0,082	-10,007
	(81,842)	(19,206)	(2,207)	(99,063)	(30,363)	(7,952)	(17,093)	(5,909)	(17,241)	(1,896)	(11,471)
Poverty index (unsatisfied basic needs)	77,485**	18,280***	0,060	64,530	25,782*	3,565	18,115**	8,687***	-2,835	4,050***	4,496
	(36,811)	(6,766)	(1,310)	(43,630)	(13,591)	(3,066)	(7,514)	(2,816)	(7,690)	(0,999)	(5,724)
Unemployment rate	214,724**	7,029	14,132*	116,661	62,186*	4,860	94,073**	25,691***	43,536	18,931**	35,016
	(93,576)	(36,533)	(7,281)	(96,346)	(33,121)	(16,979)	(38,096)	(9,616)	(49,536)	(7,830)	(21,714)
Average schooling years +15	10,602**	5,176***	0,036	9,672	3,751*	0,484	1,921**	1,488***	1,182	0,607***	2,503***
	(5,362)	(1,193)	(0,110)	(6,377)	(1,982)	(0,431)	(0,961)	(0,407)	(0,916)	(0,106)	(0,817)
Urban category
1. <20 percentiles
	3,622	1,051	0,362	4,442	1,491	1,151	3,287**	0,334	2,320	0,022	1,697**
2. 20-40 percentiles	(2,227)	(1,517)	(0,360)	(3,314)	(0,964)	(0,832)	(1,599)	(0,272)	(2,264)	(0,208)	(0,780)
	0,295	-1,966	-0,269*	-3,493	0,340	0,893	2,579	-0,077	0,657	0,304	-0,088
3. 40-60 percentiles	(3,299)	(1,384)	(0,151)	(3,692)	(1,376)	(0,711)	(1,657)	(0,391)	(1,973)	(0,313)	(0,811)
	0,023	-0,629	-0,101	0,714	-0,252	2,467**	1,626	-0,183	0,722	-0,122	-0,003
4. 60-80 percentiles	(5,608)	(2,006)	(0,231)	(6,780)	(2,116)	(0,974)	(1,823)	(0,467)	(2,069)	(0,257)	(1,084)
	0,923	0,680	-0,167	-2,110	-0,465	1,477	-1,263	-0,016	-1,887	0,080	1,263
5. >80 percentiles	(5,706)	(2,701)	(0,248)	(6,896)	(2,352)	(1,114)	(1,963)	(0,523)	(2,555)	(0,256)	(1,180)
Constant	226,485	-49,651	-3,822	188,139	67,744	-23,942	-45,879	9,189	-54,143	-2,740	-5,270
	(198,176)	(34,852)	(6,312)	(240,791)	(73,129)	(14,783)	(36,065)	(13,529)	(33,445)	(3,999)	(21,545)
Number of districts	459	459	459	459	459	459	459	459	459	459	459
R2	0,23	0,34	0,08	0,14	0,18	0,16	0,13	0,33	0,16	0,23	0,35
Adjusted R2	0,21	0,32	0,05	0,11	0,16	0,13	0,11	0,31	0,14	0,21	0,33

Mugging	Robbery of items in vehicles	Robbery with violence from people	Robbery without violence from people	Robbery (non residential without violence)	Robbery (residential without violence)	Theft (non residential with violence)	Theft (non residential without violence)	Theft (residential with violence)	Theft (residential without violence)	Vehicle theft
0,369	0,298	0,115	0,32	0,335	0,29	0,257	0,4	0,152	0,448	0,318

Variable	Definition	Source	Year	Mean	S.d.
Annual population growth	Annual population growth.	INEC	Between 2000 and 2011	0.010	0.018
Attack (non-residential building)	Attack with violence in which an individual takes property for personal use, such as goods or money, from a building, without the owner’s permission. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	6.210	16.540
Attack (residential building)	Attack with violence in which an individual takes property for personal use, such as goods or money, from someone else’s house, without the owner’s permission. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	5.399	5.537
Average schooling years +15	Average years of education completed by persons 15 years and over with respect to the population 15 years and over.	INEC and IGN	2011	7.981	1.623
Gini index	Gini index.	CRS	2005	0.412	0.043
Homicide rate	Intentional homicide, that is, a homicide in which the criminal intentionally seeks the victim’s death. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	0.777	1.042
Immigrants	Percentage of the population not born in the country.	INEC and IGN	2011	0.021	0.018
Men	Ratio of men to women.	INEC and IGN	2011	0.498	0.019
Mugging	Crime characterized by a violent attack on an individual, usually with the objective of robbery. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	14.030	46.350
Police force	Police paid by the state, and depending on Costa Rica’s Ministerio de Seguridad. Per every 1,000 inhabitants.	INEC and MSP	2011	4.025	2.541
Population density	The original variable is defined as the average population of a district per square kilometre. However, regressions show the figures multiplied by 1,000 for readability.	INEC and IGN	2011	1,186	2,359
Poverty index (unsatisfied basic needs)	Percentage of households having at least one unsatisfied basic need (in shelter, hygiene, education or consumption),	INEC and IGN	2011	0.314	0.145
Robbery (non residential building)	The seizure of another’s assets from a building, with the intention of profiting, employing force, violence or intimidation. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	11.840	11.750
Robbery (people)	The seizure of another’s assets with the intention of profiting, employing force, violence or intimidation. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	0.690	1.467
Robbery (residential building)	The seizure of another’s assets from a house, with the intention of profiting, employing force, violence or intimidation. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	15.620	12.940
Robbery or theft of items in vehicles	Offense consisting of robbing or stealing objects from a motor vehicle, whether or not locked. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	7.784	14.730
Theft (non-residential building)	The perpetrator takes something from a building unlawfully with the intention of keeping it. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	2.045	4.094
Theft (people)	A form of theft in which an individual takes property for personal use, such as goods or money, without the owner’s permission. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	13.340	51.880
Theft (residential building)	The perpetrator takes something from someone’s house illegally with the intention of keeping it. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	1.223	1.508
Unemployment rate	Unemployment rate.	INEC and IGN	2011	0.031	0.012
Urban population	Percentage of the population of a district living in an urban area. Urban areas were defined a priori by Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos with physical and functional criteria, taking into account tangible items such as clearly defined quadrants, streets, sidewalks, urban services (garbage collection, street lighting) and economic activities. The administrative centres of each county or district performed geographic delineation.	INEC and IGN	2011	0.523	0.377
Vehicle theft	Offense consisting of the seizure of another’s vehicle with the intention of profiting, employing force, violence or intimidation. Per every 10,000 inhabitants.	OIJ and INEC	Average value 2010-2013	7.531	8.801

	Homicide rate	Police force	Population density	Annual population growth	Men	Immigrants	Gini index	Poverty index	Unemployment rate	Average schooling years +15	Urban population
Homicide rate	1.000
Police force	-0.028	1.000
Population density	0.280	0.156	1.000
Annual population growth	-0.097	0.041	-0.175	1.000
Men	-0.124	-0.143	-0.542	-0.008	1.000
Immigrants	0.120	-0.022	0.046	0.185	-0.011	1.000
Gini index	0.122	-0.017	-0.076	0.216	-0.162	0.101	1.000
Poverty index	0.089	-0.145	-0.421	-0.074	0.678	0.005	0.022	1.000
Unemployment rate	0.181	0.006	0.116	0.034	-0.125	-0.073	0.224	-0.011	1.000
Average schooling years +15	0.085	0.204	0.554	0.076	-0.776	0.149	0.174	-0.824	0.026	1.000
Urban population	0.200	0.242	0.579	0.087	-0.674	0.093	0.069	-0.673	0.138	0.760	1.000

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[TFN1] Notes: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

[TFN2] Huber-White estimated standard errors are in parentheses below coefficients.