The objective of this work was to simulate droughts with different duration ranges (1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days) in order to identify its occurrence probability in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, between December to February. Rain gauge data collected over 16 years from 62 weather stations, 40 from Rio de Janeiro, 15 from Minas Gerais, 4 from Espírito Santo and 3 from São Paulo, were used in the analysis. The results allowed the conclusion that, in general, the highest drought probabilities were found for December, decreasing in January and from January to February. Drought periods lasting 1-5 and 6-10 days were found to occur with greater probability in the State. The probability of droughts lasting 11-15 days was higher in Northern region, particularly in February. The Southern State region presented higher probability of droughts for periods of 1-5 days.
rainfall shortage; dry days; simulation
