IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROELECTRIC POWER DURATION CURVES OF SMALL RURAL CATCHMENTS IN THE AMAZON

Soares, Amanda de C. L.; Blanco, Claudio J. C.; Cruz, Josias da S.

doi:10.1590/1809-4430-Eng.Agric.v43nepe20220144/2023

Amanda de C. L. Soares

Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA/Belém - PA, Brasil.

Claudio J. C. Blanco ^**Corresponding author. Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA/Belém - PA, Brasil. E-mail: blanco@ufpa.br

Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA/Belém - PA, Brasil.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8022-2647

Josias da S. Cruz

Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA/Belém - PA, Brasil.

*Corresponding author. Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA/Belém - PA, Brasil. E-mail: blanco@ufpa.br

Area Editor: Teresa Cristina Tarlé Pissarra

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FIGURE 1
Location of the study hydrometeorological stations.

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FIGURE 2
Observed and simulated flow duration curves of the rainfall-runoff model calibration of the five small catchments.

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FIGURE 3
Observed and simulated flow duration curves of the rainfall-runoff model validation of the five small catchments.

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FIGURE 4
Flow duration curves of Prata’s creek.

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FIGURE 5
Flow duration curves of the Piranhas River.

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FIGURE 6
Flow duration curves of the Caeté River.

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FIGURE 7
Flow duration curves of the Capivara River.

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FIGURE 8
Flow duration curves of the Braço Norte River.

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FIGURE 9
Hydroelectric power duration curves calculated with observed flow data and simulated with data from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2023 to 2029, 2050 to 2059 and 2090 to 2099) – Prata’s creek.

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FIGURE 10
Hydroelectric power duration curves calculated with observed flow data and simulated with data from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2023 to 2029, 2050 to 2059 and 2090 to 2099) – Piranhas River.

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FIGURE 11
Hydroelectric power duration curves calculated with observed flow data and simulated with data from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2023 to 2029, 2050 to 2059 and 2090 to 2099) – Caeté River.

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FIGURE 12
Hydroelectric power duration curves calculated with observed flow data and simulated with data from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2023 to 2029, 2050 to 2059 and 2090 to 2099) – Capivara River.

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FIGURE 13
Hydroelectric power duration curves calculated with observed flow data and simulated with data from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2023 to 2029, 2050 to 2059 and 2090 to 2099) – Braço Norte River.

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TABLE 1
Data from small catchments.

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TABLE 2
ANA codes and data periods of series of rainfall and streamflow gauge stations.

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TABLE 3
Annual data periods used for model calibration and validation.

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TABLE 4
Calibration parameters of the rainfall-runoff model of the studied catchments

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TABLE 5
Q5%, Q50% and Q95% of the observed flows (representation of the current scenario).

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TABLE 6
Differences in Q5%, Q50% and Q95% between the current scenario and the 2023-2029 scenario.

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TABLE 7
Differences in Q5%, Q50% and Q95% between the current scenario and the 2050-2059 scenario.

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TABLE 8
Differences in Q5%, Q50% and Q95% between the current scenario and the 2090-2099 scenario.

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Catchment	City/State	Drainage Area (km²)
Prata’s creek (Q1 e P1)	Capitão Poço/PA	32.7
Piranhas river (Q2 e P2)	Abreulândia/TO	186
Caeté river (Q3 e P3)	Ourém/PA	290
Capivara river (Q4 e P4)	Colinas do Tocantins/TO	386
Braço Norte river (Q5 e P5)	Novo Progresso/PA	465

Catchment	Rainfall gauge station (ANA code)	Streamflow gauge station (ANA code)	Data period
Prata’s creek	00147016	31600000	1993-2006
Piranhas river	00949000	27370000	2004-2007
Caeté river	00147000	32300000	1968-1971
Capivara river	00848000	23130000	1995-1998
Braço Norte river	00855000	17345000	1995-1999

Catchment	Calibration/Validation
Prata’s creek	1993-2006
Piranhas river	2004-2007
Caeté river	1968-1971
Capivara river	1995-1998
Braço Norte river	1995-1999

Catchment	m (days)	k (days)
Prata’s creek	322	3
Piranhas river	270	2
Caeté river	111	3
Capivara river	157	4
Braço Norte river	244	2

Catchment	Q_5% (m³.s^-1)	Q_50% (m³.s^-1)	Q_95% (m³.s^-1)
Prata’s creek	2.13	0.98	0.33
Piranhas river	15.27	1.99	0.31
Caeté river	7.05	3.24	1.13
Capivara river	28.88	3.76	0.59
Braço Norte river	51.10	19.31	10.5

Catchment	Q_5% (m³.s^-1)		Q_50% (m³.s^-1)		Q_95% (m³.s^-1)
Catchment	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5
Prata’s creek	1.55	1.50	0.95	0.94	0.46	0.41
Piranhas river	12.67	10.93	3.19	2.83	0.00	0.00
Caeté river	5.31	5.37	3.04	3.05	1.25	1.30
Capivara river	27.06	25.86	5.96	5.72	0.00	0.00
Braço Norte river	39.78	38.91	22.16	20.89	11.76	11.14

Catchment	Q_5% (m³.s^-1)		Q_50% (m³.s^-1)		Q_95% (m³.s^-1)
Catchment	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5
Prata’s creek	1.70	1.67	0.99	0.94	0.27	0.20
Piranhas river	9.88	10.58	2.99	3.26	0.00	0.00
Caeté river	5.69	5.86	3.63	3.45	1.24	1.27
Capivara river	24.22	26.92	6.51	5.67	0.00	0.00
Braço Norte river	39.93	40.77	25.10	24.63	13.11	12.26

Catchment	Q_5% (m³.s^-1)		Q_50% (m³.s^-1)		Q_95% (m³.s^-1)
Catchment	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5
Prata’s creek	1.39	1.48	0.77	0.77	0.27	0.30
Piranhas river	7.89	8.17	2.11	2.22	0.00	0.14
Caeté river	5.10	5.38	2.77	2.73	1.27	1.35
Capivara river	19.99	18.90	4.56	4.28	0.00	0.60
Braço Norte river	32.13	34.04	19.80	19.90	11.21	12.13

f_{x y} (ω) = \frac{\sum_{t = - \infty}^{\infty} \sum_{k = 0}^{\infty} h k e c^{- i ω t} y_{x} (τ - k) e^{- i ω (τ - k)}}{π} = \sum_{k = 0}^{\infty} h_{k} e^{- i ω t} f_{x} (ω) = H (ω) f_{x} (ω)

[1] *Corresponding author. Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA/Belém - PA, Brasil. E-mail: blanco@ufpa.br

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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROELECTRIC POWER DURATION CURVES OF SMALL RURAL CATCHMENTS IN THE AMAZON

ABSTRACT