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Transitions in the Brazilian labor market and the immediate effects of the economic crisis of the years 2010

Abstract

This paper analyzes the transitions and profile of individuals in the labor market in the main Brazilian metropolitan regions, considering the statuses of occupied, unemployed and inactive. The basic information is from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), from the period 2002 to 2015, making it possible to verify the behavior of the transitions in the Brazilian labor market at different phases of the economic cycle. The results show that the chances of transitions along this cycle are affected by individual characteristics, making certain groups much more (less) disadvantaged (favored) in the recessive (expansive) phases than others. Estimates suggest that blacks, especially females, are the most affected in a context of employment crisis, thus requiring a discussion on the need to structure public policy capable of mitigating this effect. It is also shown that after a long period, from 2002 to 2014, in which there was an increase in the chances of individuals remaining employed, 2015 marked the worsening of the economic crisis and the resultant impact on the labor market, with a decrease in the transition to employment and dilation of time in unemployment.

Keywords:
Transactions in the Brazilian labor market; Transaction profiles; Economic crisis

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