O papel do capital social no risco de vitimização contra a propriedade: evidências para o Brasil

Moreira, Gustavo Carvalho; Kassouf, Ana Lucia; Justus, Marcelo

doi:10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n2art11

Gustavo Carvalho Moreira

Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of São João del Rei (UFSJ), MG, Brazil. E-mail: gustavocmoreira@ufsj.edu.br.

Ana Lucia Kassouf

Professor in the Department of Economics and Rural Sociology at Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq), Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. E-mail: anakassouf@usp.br.

Marcelo Justus

Professor in the Institute of Economics at the University of Campinas (Unicamp. IE), Campinas, SP, Brazil. E-mail: mjustus@unicamp.br.

Definition		Mean	s.d.	e.s.
Victim	1 if the individual was victimized⁽¹⁾ (1) Unarmed robbery with and without physical threat; armed robbery; burglary of home and extortion. Data obtained from the LAPOP survey databases (2010, 2012 and 2014). The variables inequality and homicide were obtained from data compiled by Ipeadata for the same years as the Lapop data employed. in the 12 months before the research, and 0 otherwise.	0.17	0.37
Social capital	1 if the individual considers people who live in their community very trustworthy or somewhat trustworthy, and 0 not very trustworthy and untrustworthy	0.58	0.49	-
Work	1 if the individual works or studies, and 0 otherwise	0.72	0.44	+
Man	1 if the individual is a man, and 0 otherwise	0.50	0.50	-
Urban	1 if the individual lives in an urban area, and 0 otherwise	0.86	0.34	+
Classpop	1 if the individual lives in a city with less than 25 thousand inhabitants	0.08	0.26	-
	2 if the individual lives in a city with between 25 and 50 thousand inhabitants	0.24	0.43	-
	3 if the individual lives in a city with between 50 and 200 thousand inhabitants	0.22	0.41	-
	4 if the individual lives in a city with between 200 and 500 thousand inhabitants	0.20	0.40	-
	5 if the individual lives in a city with more than 500 thousand inhabitants	0.26	0.44	Base
Age	1 if the individual is 16-25 years old	0.23	0.42	+
	2 if the individual is 26-35 years old	0.25	0.43	+
	3 if the individual is 36-45 years old	0.21	0.40	+
	4 if the individual is over 46 years old	0.31	0.46	Base
Schooling	Years of schooling	8.40	3.90	-
Income	Class A - 1 if the monthly per capita income is greater than R$ 1,041.00, and 0 otherwise	0.28	0.45	Base
	Class B - 1 if the monthly per capita income is between R$ 411,00 and R$ 1.040,00, and 0 otherwise	0.26	0.43	?
	Class C - 1 if the monthly per capita income is smaller than R$ 410,00, and 0 otherwise	0.46	0.49	?
Inequality	Population ratio of income held by the richest 20% compared to the poorest 20% of each Federation Unit	0.55	0.13	+
Homicide	Homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants for the Federation Unit	26.9	12.8	+
Gangs	The individual's perception regarding the presence of gangs in the neighborhood:
	1 if not at all affected	0.29	0.45	Base
	2 if slightly affected	0.36	0.48	-
	3 if reasonably affected	0.16	0.37	-
	4 if greatly affected	0.19	0.39	-
Year	Year dummies
State	Federation Unit dummies

Type of crime you have suffered in the last 12 months	Year
	2010		2012		2014		Total
	n	%	n	%	n	%	n	%
Armed robbery	160	40.0	98	43.4	81	36.3	339	39.9
Unarmed robbery, no physical threats	84	21.0	41	18.1	52	23.3	177	20.8
Burglary of your home	72	18.0	29	12.8	22	9.9	123	14.5
Unarmed robbery with physical threats	30	7.5	14	6.2	29	13.0	73	8.6
Extorsion	17	4.2	13	5.7	13	5.8	43	5.0
Other	37	9.3	31	13.7	26	5.8	94	5.0
Total	400	100	226	100	223	100	849	100

Have you been avictim of any type of crime in thepast 12 months?	Interpersonal confidence level
	Very trustworthy		Somewhat trustworthy		Not very trustworthy		Untrustworhy		Total
	n	%	n	%	n	%	n	%	n	%
No	939	21.2	1.704	38.5	1.418	32.0	366	8.3	4.427	100
Yes	132	15.8	287	34.3	318	38.0	99	11.8	836	100
Total	1,071	20.4	1,991	37.8	1,736	33.0	465	8.8	5,263	100

	Non-victimized	Victmized	z/t test
Social capital	0.59	0.48	0.11***
Social capital	(0.49)	(0.50)	(0.02)
Work	0.71	0.8	-0.08***
Work	(0.45)	(0.40)	(0.02)
Man	0.49	0.53	-0.03*
Man	(0.50)	(0.50)	(0.02)
Urban	0.85	0.93	-0.08***
Urban	(0.36)	(0.25)	(0.01)
Classpop (< 25 thousand inhab.)	0.25	0.34	-0.09***
Classpop (< 25 thousand inhab.)	(0.43)	(0.47)	(0.02)
Classpop ( ≥25k to < 50k)	0.20	0.24	-0.05***
Classpop ( ≥25k to < 50k)	(0.40)	(0.43)	(0.02)
Classpop ( ≥50k to <200k)	0.22	0.21	0.01
Classpop ( ≥50k to <200k)	(0.42)	(0.41)	(0.02)
Classpop (≥200k to <500)	0.25	0.15	0.09***
Classpop (≥200k to <500)	(0.43)	(0.36)	(0.02)
Classpop (≥ 500 thousand inhab.)	0.08	0.05	0.02***
Classpop (≥ 500 thousand inhab.)	(0.28)	(0.23)	(0.01)
Age (16-25)	0.23	0.27	-0.04***
Age (16-25)	(0.42)	(0.44)	(0.02)
Age (26-35)	0.25	0.26	-0.01
Age (26-35)	(0.43)	(0.44)	(0.02)
Age (36-45)	0.20	0.25	-0.04***
Age (36-45)	(0.40)	(0.43)	(0.02)
Age (46+)	0.32	0.22	0.10***
Age (46+)	(0.47)	(0.41)	(0.02)
Schooling	8.25	9.26	-1.07***
Schooling	(3.91)	(3.75)	(0.15)
Income(class A)	0.29	0.29	-0.00
Income(class A)	(0.45)	(0.45)	(0.02)
incOme(class B)	0.25	0.26	-0.00
incOme(class B)	(0.44)	(0.44)	(0.02)
Income(class C)	0.46	0.45	0.01
Income(class C)	(0.50)	(0.50)	(0.02)
Inequality	0.55	0.55	0.00
Inequality	(0.14)	(0.13)	(0.01)
Homicide	26.71	27.81	-0.97**
Homicide	(12.61)	(12.88)	(0.48)
Gangs (nothing affected)	0.16	0.31	-0.15***
Gangs (nothing affected)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Gangs (slightly affected)	0.16	0.18	-0.02*
Gangs (slightly affected)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Gangs (reasonably affected)	0.36	0.31	0.04**
Gangs (reasonably affected)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Gangs (greatly affected)	0.30	0.18	0.12***
Gangs (greatly affected)	(0,00)	(0,01)	(0,01)

	Model I (IV-Probit)		Model II (IV-Probit)		Model III (Probit)
	First stage	M.E.	First stage	M.E.	M.E.
Social capital		-0.2736** (0.1398)		-0,2923** (0,1444)	-0,0402*** (0,0095)
Work	0.0316** (0.0158)	0.0396*** (0.0113)	0.0302* (0.0159)	0,0387*** (0,0113)	0,0311** (0,0116)
Man	-0.0121 (0.0137)	0.0110 (0.0100)	-0.0125 (0.0134)	0,0103 (0,0099)	0,0175* (0,0098)
Urban	0.0983** (0.0371)	0.1311*** (0.0258)	0.0960** (0.0370)	0,1309*** (0,0262)	0,1060*** (0,0209)
Classpop (< 25 thous. inhab.)	0.0339 (0.0495)	-0.0354 (0.0492)	0.0365 (0.0489)	-0,0319 (0,0495)	-0,0517 (0,0464)
Classpop (≥25k and < 50k)	0.0282 (0.0465)	-0.0258 (0. 0535)	0.0312 (0.0464)	-0,0241 (0,0535)	-0,0409 (0,0506)
Classpop (≥50k and <200k)	-0.0574 (0.0419)	-0.0804** (0.0394)	-0.0560 (0.0418)	-0,0795** (0,0392)	-0,0689* (0,0367)
Classpop (≥200k and <500k)	-0.0744** (0.0381)	-0.1109** (0.0417)	-0.0729* (0.0382)	-0,1106** (0,0412)	-0,0965** (0,0430)
Age (16-25)	0.1185*** (0.0243)	0.0417*** (0.0186)	0.1184*** (0.0249)	0,0740*** (0,0188)	0,0346** (0,0135)
Age (26-35)	0.0777*** (0.0170)	0.0403** (0.0168)	0.0770*** (0.0171)	0,0431** (0,0166)	0,0170 (0,0132)
Age (36-45)	0.0477** (0.0190)	0.0589*** (0 .0139)	0.0478** (0.0191)	0,0600*** (0,0140)	0,0486*** (0,0135)
Schooling	-0.0018 (0.0024)	0.0043** (0.0016)	-0.0016 (0.0024)	0,0042** (0,0017)	0,0057*** (0,0015)
Income (class B)	0.0573** (0.0166)	0.0274* (0.0158)	0.0581** (0.0167)	0,0292* (0,0164)	0,0101 (0,0141)
Income (class C)	0.0637** (0.0271)	0.0342 (0.0271)	0.0620** (0.0267)	0,0363 (0,0278)	0,0129 (0,0209)
Inequality	0.4845 (0.5068)	-0.5865 (0.3978)	0.4842 (0.5001)	-0,5689 (0,3904)	-0,7960** (0,3826)
Homicide	0.0028 (0.0017)	0.0022 (0.0015)	0.0027 (0.0017)	0,0023 (0,0014)	0,0015 (0,0014)
Gangs (slightly affected)	-0.1656*** (0.0287)	-0.1138*** (0.0260)	-0.1635*** (0.0281)	-0,1139*** (0,0248)	-0,0617** (0,0178)
Gangs (reasonably affected)	-0.1474*** (0.0216)	-0.1420*** (0.0185)	-0.1481*** (0.0216)	-0,1439*** (0,0176)	-0,0979*** (0,0157)
Gangs(greatly affected)	-0.1925*** (0.0219)	-0.1789*** (0.0212)	-0.1940*** (0.0219)	-0,1806*** (0,0202)	-0,1238*** (0,0175)
Politics	-0.0338*** (0.0089)		-0.0315** (0.0096)
News			0.0098* (0.0057)
Dummies for year and state	Yes		Yes		Yes
Hausman (p-value)	0.9993
Wald (p-value)	0.0359		0.0361
Sargan (p-value)			0.6958
N	4.905		4.875		4.936

\begin{matrix} {bl}_{ij} = α \{w [k_{j}, g_{ji} (d_{ji}, r_{ji}) + g_{jz} (d_{jz}, r_{jz})]\} \\ - w \{k_{i}, [g_{ij} (d_{ij}, r_{ij})]\} + u (∆ r_{ij}^{e}) + u (∆ r_{iz}^{e}) \end{matrix}

∆ {bl}_{ij} = α (\frac{\partial w_{j}}{\partial r_{ij}} ∆ r_{ij} + \frac{\partial w_{j}}{\partial r_{jz}} ∆ r_{jz}) - (\frac{\partial w_{i}}{\partial r_{ij}} ∆ r_{ij} + \frac{\partial w_{i}}{\partial r_{iz}} ∆ r_{iz}) + \frac{\partial u}{\partial r_{ij}^{e}} ∆ r_{ij}^{e} + \frac{\partial u}{\partial r_{iz}^{e}} ∆ r_{iz}^{e}

\begin{matrix} \frac{\partial \Pr [y_{i} = 1]}{\partial γ_{it} \partial social {capital}_{it}} = F^{'} (social capita {l^{'}}_{it} β; {γ^{'}}_{it} θ) θ_{t} \\ where F^{'} (z) = \frac{\partial δ (z)}{\partial z} . \end{matrix}

[TFN1] Note:

[TFN2] ⁽¹⁾
Unarmed robbery with and without physical threat; armed robbery; burglary of home and extortion. Data obtained from the LAPOP survey databases (2010, 2012 and 2014). The variables inequality and homicide were obtained from data compiled by Ipeadata for the same years as the Lapop data employed.

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O papel do capital social no risco de vitimização contra a propriedade: evidências para o Brasil

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