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Structure of Brazilian inflation: determinants and disaggregation of the extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA)

This paper aims to discuss the determinants of Brazilian inflation measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) from 2000 to 2009. We built 22 disaggregated series, the segments classification, crossing the classification in tradables/non-tradables/monitored prices with the main groups of the IPCA (food and beverages, housing, household goods, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, personal expenses, education and communication). Segments with the most influence on inflation are ordered according to the Inflation Targeting Pressure Index (ITPI), designed to measure the impact of each prices group on the IPCA. The paper also presents the results from an econometric model to estimate the macroeconomic determinants of inflation in the 22 disaggregated series, using monthly data from 1999 to 2009. The determinants of most influential segments are explored based on the results of the econometric model. Finally, the implications for inflation policies are discussed.

Inflation decomposition; Inflation targeting pressure index; Segment classification; IPCA - Extended National Consumer Price Index; Transfer function models


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