Dynamic modeling and urban water demand scenarios: simulations in Campina Grande-PB

ABSTRACT

This work estimates urban water demands for future land-use scenarios using spatial analysis and dynamic modeling based on cellular automata for an urban area of the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba State, Brazil. Ground truth for two dates (2011 and 2018) is used to identify the process of land-use change in these neighborhoods. Some static and dynamic variables are defined in order to support the model parameterization and to simulate the changes occurred in the period. After the validation of those simulations for 2018, based on the observed data, new future scenarios are proposed for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100, thus identifying a tendency of occupation with some specific characteristics such as the replacement of residential areas new buildings with multiple floors, whether residential, business, or services. Due to the increase in urban occupation, the water demands for attending to the population also increase. Between 2018 and 2100, this upward trend is estimated at 300%. A comparison of future scenarios considering conventional and rational water uses (using saving mechanisms) is also simulated.

Keywords:
dynamic modeling; cellular automato; soil use and occupation; verticalization; water demand