Simulation of climatic impacts of desertification in Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT

The climatic behavior of the Brazilian Northeast (BNE) was simulated considering a scenario where all its caatinga area was replaced by desert. Precipitation decreased in the region in almost every month of the year, mainly on the caatinga sector. Evapotranspiration showed decreases of great magnitude throughout the year, especially during the rainy season. Runoff presented overall increases, indicating a decrease of the water extracted by plant roots. Air temperature was the most affected variable, with increases of up to 6°C in some regions and an average increase of approximately 3°C in the caatinga area. In addition, there was a restorative mechanism associated with convergence of humidity that worked favoring precipitation although insufficient to prevent its reduction in the BNE.

Keywords:
CCM3-IBIS; caatinga; climate changes; atmospheric modeling; ecosystem modeling