The Potential Impact of Climate Change in the Zoning of Pine Production in the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil

Oliveira, Laís Thomazini; Pezzopane, José Eduardo Macedo; Cecílio, Roberto Avelino

doi:10.4322/floram.2011.021

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Artigo de Pesquisa • Floresta Ambient. 18 (1) • Jan-Mar 2011 • https://doi.org/10.4322/floram.2011.021 linkcopy

The Potential Impact of Climate Change in the Zoning of Pine Production in the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

The production of Pinus in the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil has become feasible due to the development of technology to be used in its timber and lumber laminate industry. Since global climate change may alter the Brazilian forestry scenario, the objective of this paper is to assess its potential impact on the climatic zoning of the pine species in the state. Climate data of 110 stations and future climate data were obtained through HadCM3 model, which was used to calculate the current and future water balance necessary to the zoning. Results showed that 100% of areas will be unsuitable for two of the species in the 2050s and for all species in the 2080s.

Keywords:
global warming; HadCM3; water balance.

Tabela 1 Faixa de aptidão térmica para as espécies de Pinus.

	Regiões
Cultura	Apta inapta
	Temperatura média anual (Ta)
Pinus elliottii var. elliottii	15 ≤ Ta ≤ 24 °C 15 > Ta > 24 °C
Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis	21 ≤ Ta ≤ 27 °C 21 > Ta > 27 °C
Pinus oocarpa	13 ≤ Ta ≤ 21 °C 13 > Ta > 21 °C
Pinus taeda	13 ≤ Ta ≤ 19 °C 13 > Ta > 19 °C

Tabela 2 Faixa de aptidão hídrica para as espécies de Pinus.

Cultura	Regiões
	Apta inapta
	Deficiência hídrica anual (Da)
Pinus elliottii var. elliottii	≤ 50 mm > 50 mm
Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis	≤ 200 mm > 200 mm

Tabela 3 Áreas aptas e inaptas para a implantação de Pinus spp. no Estado.

Espécies	Áreas aptas (% do total)	Áreas inaptas (% do total)
Pinus elliottii var. elliottii	14,96	85,04
Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis	78,92	21,08
Pinus oocarpa	15,73	84,27
Pinus taeda	3,52	96,48

Tabela 4 Áreas aptas e inaptas para a implantação de Pinus ssp. no Estado, nas décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, com seus respectivos cenários.

Décadas	Áreas (% do total)
	Pinus elliottii var. elliottii		Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis		Pinus oocarpa		Pinus taeda
	Aptas	Inaptas	Aptas	Inaptas	Aptas	Inaptas	Aptas	Inaptas
2020 A2	4,73	95,27	60,60	39,4	9,96	90,04	0,89	99,11
2020 B2	2,01	97,99	29,71	70,29	8,63	91,37	0,40	99,6
2050 A2	0,0	100,0	14,21	85,79	3,37	96,63	0,0	100,0
2050 B2	0,0	100,0	17,09	82,91	4,90	95,1	0,0	100,0
2080 A2	0,0	100,0	0,0	100,0	0,0	100,0	0,0	100,0
2080 B2	0,0	100,0	5,0	95,0	1,0	99,0	0,0	100,0

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