Managing risks associated with lean methodology implementation is important in order to overcome the low success rate for such projects. This paper presents three main contributions to this subject: (i) identification of risk factors of lean methodology implementation projects, (ii) degree of relationship between the factors identified, and (iii) algorithm for estimating the probability of a successful lean methodology project implementation, considering the type of factors and the degree of relationship between them. The model proposed was based on literature review and views of experts from academia and industry. It uses principles of reliability, in which the risk factors are modeled as a series-parallel system. The model tested in three companies showed results consistent with the uncertainties and risks of such projects. In addition, it identified the project critical risk factors considering the synergy between the factors.
Lean manufacturing; Risk management
