Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to
               2010

Silva, Franciane F.; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P.

doi:10.1016/j.jped.2013.12.013

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Original Articles • J. Pediatr. (Rio J.) 90 (6) • Nov-Dec 2014 • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jped.2013.12.013 copy

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010 ^☆ ☆ Please cite this article as: Silva FF, Zandonade E, Zouain-Figueiredo GP. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. J Pediatr (Rio J). 2014;90:587-92. ^☆☆ ☆☆ Study associated with the Postgraduate Program in Collective Health, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brazil.

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

OBJECTIVE:

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

METHODS:

This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%.

RESULTS:

Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females).

CONCLUSIONS:

The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis.

Infant mortality; Leukemia; Linear models; Child; Adolescent

Variable	Gender	Age range	Model	R²	p-Value	Trend	Growth (%)
All subgroups of leukemias	Male	0 to 4	Semi-log	-	0.375	No trend	*
		5 to 9	Linear	0.255	0.004	Increasing	0.70
		10 to 14	Semi-log	-	0.000	Increasing	1.23
		15 to 19	Semi-log	-	0.000	Increasing	1.40
	Female	0 to 4	Semi-log	-	0.005	Increasing	1.09
		5 to 9	Semi-log	-	0.521	No trend	*
		10 to 14	Semi-log	-	0.000	Increasing	1.28
		15 to 19	Linear	0.584	0.000	Increasing	1.62
	Both	0 to 4	Semi-log	-	0.000	Decreasing	-4.24
		5 to 9	Linear	0.100	0.000	Decreasing	-0.72
		10 to 14	Semi-log	-	0.603	No trend	*
		15 to 19	Semi-log	-	0.647	No trend	*
Lymphoid leukemias	Male	0 to 4	Linear	0.311	0.001	Decreasing	-1.21
		5 to 9	Semi-log	-	0.194	No trend	*
		10 to 14	Linear	0.086	0.109	No trend	*
		15 to 19	Linear	0.291	0.002	Increasing	1.00
	Female	0 to 4	Linear	0.058	0.194	No trend	*
		5 to 9	Linear	0.081	0.120	No trend	*
		10 to 14	Linear	0.076	0.133	No trend	*
		15 to 19	Linear	0.289	0.002	Increasing	1.21
	Both	0 to 4	Semi-log	-	0.827	No trend	*
		5 to 9	Linear	0.100	0.084	No trend	*
		10 to 14	Linear	0.110	0.068	No trend	*
		15 to 19	Linear	0.455	0.000	Increasing	1.06
Myeloid leukemias	Male	0 to 4	Linear	0.065	0.168	No trend	*
		5 to 9	Linear	0.200	0.012	Increasing	1.29
		10 to 14	Linear	0.052	0.216	No trend	*
		15 to 19	Linear	0.000	0.965	No trend	*
	Female	0 to 4	Linear	0.288	0.002	Increasing	1.33
		5 to 9	Linear	0.001	0.873	No trend	*
		10 to 14	Linear	0.111	0.067	No trend	*
		15 to 19	Linear	0.067	0.161	No trend	*
	Both	0 to 4	Linear	0.609	0.000	Increasing	1.77
		5 to 9	Linear	0.151	0.031	Increasing	0.71
		10 to 14	Linear	0.127	0.049	Increasing	0.53
		15 to 19	Linear	0.031	0.346	No trend	*
Other types of leukemias	Male	0 to 4	Linear	0.812	0.000	Decreasing	-4.14
		5 to 9	Linear	0.662	0.000	Decreasing	-3.15
		10 to 14	Linear	0.680	0.000	Decreasing	-2.83
		15 to 19	Linear	0.518	0.000	Decreasing	-2.58
	Female	0 to 4	Linear	0.799	0.000	Decreasing	-3.92
		5 to 9	Linear	0.812	0.000	Decreasing	-4.16
		10 to 14	Linear	0.494	0.000	Decreasing	-2.82
		15 to 19	Linear	0.528	0.000	Decreasing	-2.60
	Ambos	0 to 4	Linear	0.733	0.000	Decreasing	-3.16
		5 to 9	Linear	0.843	0.000	Decreasing	-3.55
		10 to 14	Linear	0.722	0.000	Decreasing	-2.84
		15 to 19	Linear	0.658	0.000	Decreasing	-2.59

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E-mail: jped@jped.com.br

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[1] * Corresponding author.E-mail: francianefigueiredo@gmail.com (F.F. Silva).