Abstract
Predictive models for the detection landscape change have been widely-used as an important tool for environmental planning and analysis. The approach that combines Markov Chains with cellular automata has been shown to produce results with excellent calibration and validation for the simulation of changes in land use and cover. The present study focused on the hydrographic basin of the Pântano River, located in the Brazilian Cerrado savanna, which has been impacted by a number of major projects, including a hydroelectric dam, and the world’s largest paper and pulp industries. The study simulated the changes in land cover and use for the year 205. Evaluating the spatial effects of the expansion of forestry into the Cerrado in the context of its different degrees of natural potential fragility. To predict the future scenario, the cellular automata Markov Chain method was combined with a multicriteria analysis using AHP logic. The model validation indicated excellent results (Kappa index greater than 0.9) for the predictions of the 2050 scenario. The model revealed a strong overall tendency for the substitution of livestock by forestry by 2050, with a predominance of expansion into areas of medium environmental fragility.
Keywords:
Dynamic modeling; Watershed; GIS; Geotechnologies
