Competition, campaign spending and electoral fragmentation effects on voter turnout and valid votes in Brazilian local elections in 2012Abstract
This article investigates factors associated with the levels of voter turnout, in particular, contextual political variables. The argument is that with the weakening of enduring constraints, such as sociodemographic and sociopsychological, we must consider the short-term effect of the conjuncture on electoral participation. The study of this effect is still incipient in Brazil and Latin America. The initial expectation was that competition, campaign spending, and fragmentation were positively associated with aggregate voter turnout. This hypothesis was tested using multivariate linear models in the mayoral elections of 2012. The results confirm this hypothesis in relation to competition and campaign expenditures, with even more force on valid votes compared to attendance itself. However, the results point to a negative effect of fragmentation.
voter turnout; electoral competition; campaign spending; electoral fragmentation; Brazil
Fonte: Elaboração própria com dados do TSE, IBGE e Atlas de Desenvolvimento Humano do PNUD.
Fonte: Elaboração própria com dados do TSE, IBGE e Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano do PNUD.Nota: Os valores estimados de da taxa de votos válidos ultrapassam o valor de 100 porque os votos válidos foram modelados, por aproximação, como uma variável contínua no modelo de regressão linear e não como uma variável limitada. Entretanto, o objetivo do gráfico é apenas apresentar o efeito não linear dos gastos de campanha e do número efetivo de partidos das eleições majoritárias sobre os níveis de votos válidos.