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Population dynamics of oriental fruit moth in peach and plum orchards

The objective of this work was to study the populational dynamics of oriental fruit moth [Grapholita molesta (Busk)] in peach and plum orchards. Adults were monitored in two peach and one plum orchards for five years. Equivalent time series of maximum and minimum temperatures were correlated to the population fluctuation data to verify the correspondence between pest occurrence and temperature fluctuations. A Fourier analysis of the moth time series revealed cyclic dynamics, with a main average period of 53.91 weeks. Another mean short period of 7.45 weeks was also obtained, and approximates to the mean pest generation time. The power spectrum analysis of the time series, with and without the main periodicity, revealed that G. molesta population dynamics has one regular component characterized by the observed periods, and one irregular component, reminiscent of 1/f noise, characterized by the observed apparently irregular amplitude oscillations in the insect occurrence. The combination of components generate a process in the low frequency domain, consistent with noisy periodic dynamic. The pest cycles occurred in phase with the maximum and minimum temperature fluctuations.

Grapholita molesta; Prunus; insect population; pest insects; pests of plants


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