We address the problem of expected cost minimization of meeting the uncertain fuel demand during a time planning horizon, where supply is provided by selecting discrete shipments with lead times. Due to uncertainty and the passage of time, corrective actions can be taken such as cancellation and postponement on supply of shipments with associated costs and delays. This problem is modeled as a stochastic multi-stage capacitated discrete lot-sizing problem with lead times. Computational experiments were performed on the resolution of various instances of the model for four information structures of uncertainty. The experimental optimal values and stochastic rating measures obtained show the validity and interest of the stochastic model, as well as the benefits that can be obtained with respect to a deterministic variant of the model that considers average demand.
oil and gas procurement; oil supply chain; stochastic lot-sizing; multi-stage stochastic integer programming; postponement