Production engineering and energy transition: comparison of installed capacity and GHG emissions in the Brazilian power sector

Abstract

Paper aims  This study conducts a comparative analysis of the historical evolution of installed electricity generation capacity in Brazil and the historical series of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector. The objective is to assess how energy development aligns with carbon neutrality commitments and to identify opportunities for innovation and management within the scope of Production Engineering.

Originality  The study integrates operational data on installed capacity with historical records of GHG emissions in the Brazilian context, providing technical and analytical support for strategic decision-making in energy policies and technological innovations aimed at carbon neutrality.

Research method  A quantitative, exploratory, and comparative approach was employed. Installed capacity data were obtained from ANEEL, and emissions data from SEEG. Analyses were performed using R software, applying descriptive statistics, geographic and sectoral visualizations, time-series analysis, and multivariate methods to integrate and compare the two dimensions.

Main findings  The results indicate a condition of partial decoupling between electricity expansion and greenhouse gas emissions. Although the growth of wind and solar generation helped reduce the relative carbon intensity of the electricity matrix, emissions remained structurally influenced by hydrological variability and thermoelectric dispatch requirements.

Implications for theory and practice  The study advances theoretical understanding by integrating energy supply and GHG emissions and offers practical contributions to the formulation of public policies and investment decisions that promote energy storage, the integration of intermittent sources, and regulatory measures (such as the Brazilian Emissions Trading System – SBCE), thereby accelerating decarbonization and the achievement of Brazil’s carbon neutrality targets.

Keywords:
Energy transition; Installed capacity; Greenhouse gas emissions; Electricity sector

1. Introduction

The transition to a low-carbon energy matrix constitutes one of the main contemporary global challenges, as it links climate change mitigation with the growing demand for energy (Camargo, 2022). In Brazil, whose electricity matrix has a high share of renewable sources, the energy sector plays a central role in the trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, acting simultaneously as a mitigation vector and a significant source of emissions (De Azevedo et al., 2018; Ribeiro et al., 2023). In this context, understanding the evolution of generation infrastructure and its relationship with emissions becomes essential to guide public policies and energy transition strategies (Goes, D’Agosto & Machado, 2019).

The Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimates System (SEEG) provides detailed historical series of national emissions, allowing for sectoral analyses of the energy sector (De Azevedo et al., 2018). Despite the advancement of renewable energies, the sector’s emissions still show significant variations, influenced by factors such as thermoelectric expansion, hydrological conditions, and changes in energy demand (Ribeiro et al., 2023; Lucena et al., 2016). This behavior highlights the need for integrated analyses that relate the expansion of generation capacity to the dynamics of emissions.

In this context, the Brazilian electricity sector presents evidence of a partial decoupling dynamic, in which the expansion of renewable electricity generation contributes to reducing the relative carbon intensity of the system without fully eliminating the operational dependence on carbon-intensive thermoelectric dispatch. This condition reflects the structural complexity of renewable-intensive electricity systems, where decarbonization depends not only on expanding clean generation capacity but also on flexibility, resilience, and system integration mechanisms.

The diversification of the electricity matrix has been identified as a central strategy for the decarbonization of the energy sector and for meeting Brazil’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement (Ramos Júnior et al., 2022). In recent decades, the expansion of non-hydraulic renewable sources, especially wind and photovoltaic solar energy, has played an increasingly important role in transforming the national electricity system (Araujo et al., 2024). The historical configuration of the Brazilian electricity matrix reflects a long-term planning strategy strongly centered on large-scale hydropower development, resulting in a highly interconnected but hydro-dependent electricity system (Tolmasquim, 2012).

Although several studies analyze either renewable expansion or greenhouse gas emissions separately, integrated empirical investigations capable of evaluating how renewable-intensive electricity systems interact with operational flexibility, climatic variability, and emissions dynamics remain limited, particularly in emerging economies such as Brazil. This gap hinders a systemic understanding of the relationship between the expansion of electricity infrastructure and the decarbonization of the energy sector.

In this context, this study conducts an integrated analysis of the historical evolution of installed electricity generation capacity in Brazil and the energy sector emissions reported by SEEG. The research seeks to answer the following question: to what extent has the historical expansion of electricity generation capacity, especially from renewable sources, contributed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the Brazilian energy sector?

By integrating energy and environmental data within a unified empirical approach, the study contributes to the literature by providing quantitative evidence on the relationship between the expansion of the electricity matrix and emission dynamics. The study contributes to the theme “Production Engineering towards Carbon Neutrality” by providing analytical support for strategic decision-making in energy policies and assisting in the development of corporate and regulatory strategies that enhance environmental, economic, and social benefits.

Furthermore, it provides analytical support for energy planning and the formulation of public policies aligned with energy transition and carbon neutrality objectives.

2. Theoretical framework

The electricity matrix refers to the composition of the different sources used to generate electricity in a country, reflecting the availability of natural resources, the level of technological development, and the energy policies adopted. In the global context, fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas remain predominant (International Energy Agency, 2023). In contrast, Brazil stands out for its high share of renewable sources, especially hydropower, due to the wide availability of water resources and the technical and economic capacity to harness this potential since the mid-twentieth century. These characteristics place the country among the global leaders in renewable participation within the electricity matrix, with more than 80% of installed electricity-generation capacity originating from renewable sources in 2023 (Balanço Energético Nacional, 2025).

Historically, Brazil’s electricity strategy was based on the development of large hydroelectric plants interconnected through extensive transmission networks, forming the National Interconnected System (SIN). This model ensured a predominantly renewable electricity matrix with relatively low operating costs for several decades. However, major hydrological crises, such as those experienced in 2001 and 2014, exposed the vulnerability associated with strong dependence on hydropower generation. During these periods, the increased dispatch of thermoelectric plants was required to guarantee supply security, resulting in temporary increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Tolmasquim, 2016).

To reduce these vulnerabilities and improve energy security, Brazil has progressively diversified its electricity matrix through the expansion of alternative renewable sources, particularly wind and solar photovoltaic generation. Public policies played a central role in this process. The Incentive Program for Alternative Electricity Sources (PROINFA) contributed significantly to reducing technological costs and stimulating renewable deployment. Wind power capacity increased from 27.1 MW in 2005 to 10,740 MW in 2016 (Diniz, 2018). Since its implementation in 2006, PROINFA has also supported the generation of approximately 135.9 million MWh from wind, biomass, and small hydropower facilities (Programa de Incentivo às Fontes Alternativas de Energia Elétrica, 2022). Additionally, energy auctions targeting renewable technologies contributed to expanding the participation of wind and biomass generation in the Brazilian electricity sector (Climate Transparency, 2019).

The Brazilian state also played a structural role by establishing financing mechanisms, regulatory frameworks, and investment conditions that enabled the diffusion of renewable technologies across different regions of the country (Santos et al., 2016; Pereira et al., 2023). Without these public strategies, renewable-energy expansion would have faced substantial technical, economic, and institutional barriers (Pagel et al., 2018). Beyond increasing electricity supply, renewable expansion contributes to reducing dependence on fossil fuels, mitigating exposure to geopolitical uncertainties and fuel-price volatility while supporting climate-change mitigation efforts (Camargo, 2022).

Despite possessing one of the world's cleanest electricity matrices, the Brazilian energy sector still accounts for approximately 18% of national GHG emissions, particularly during years characterized by hydrological stress and increased thermoelectric dispatch (Observatório do Clima, 2024). Therefore, understanding the relationship between electricity-generation expansion and emissions dynamics remains essential for supporting energy planning, infrastructure investment, technological innovation, and decarbonization strategies.

From a production engineering perspective, greenhouse gas mitigation depends on the integration of technological expansion, economic regulation, and governance structures. Studies indicate that technological advances must be supported by coherent public policies, institutional arrangements, and organizational capabilities to ensure effective environmental outcomes (Camargo, 2023; Velho et al., 2024; Ibrahim et al., 2025). Likewise, integrated management systems combining technological and quality-oriented practices contribute to improvements in energy efficiency and environmental performance. Recent evidence from manufacturing systems indicates that the integration of Total Quality Management (TQM) and Technology Management promotes sustainable innovation, operational efficiency, waste reduction, and lower environmental impacts, reinforcing the role of management capabilities as important drivers of corporate sustainability performance (Restuputri et al., 2025; Mantovaneli et al., 2025). These findings suggest that decarbonization strategies should not rely exclusively on technological expansion but also on managerial practices capable of improving resource utilization and supporting continuous environmental improvement (Miranda et al., 2025).

Energy efficiency is recognized as a key mechanism for reducing environmental impacts while improving operational performance. The literature highlights the growing adoption of energy-management practices, performance indicators, and continuous-improvement approaches, as well as their integration with production management and organizational decision-making processes (Fenerich et al., 2017).

Recent literature argues that contemporary energy transitions should be understood as socio-technical transformation processes rather than simple technological substitutions (Geels, 2002; Markard et al., 2012). This governance perspective is particularly relevant in emerging economies, where energy-transition processes depend on the coordination of technological development, regulatory frameworks, infrastructure planning, and public policies. Evidence from the Brazilian electromobility transition indicates that government actions, innovation incentives, technological development, and energy infrastructure are among the critical components required to support low-carbon transitions and accelerate decarbonization pathways (Velho et al., 2024). Therefore, the effectiveness of energy-transition strategies depends not only on renewable-energy deployment but also on institutional capacity and long-term policy consistency. In this perspective, decarbonization depends on the interaction among technological innovation, institutional adaptation, infrastructure development, and governance mechanisms capable of coordinating long-term transformation processes (Meadowcroft, 2009).

From an organizational perspective, the effectiveness of complex systems increasingly depends on the quality of interactions among stakeholders and the ability to coordinate information and resource flows. Research on supply-chain networks demonstrates that collaboration, connectivity, and information exchange among actors contribute to greater operational resilience and improved decision-making processes, elements that are also relevant for managing energy-transition systems characterized by multiple stakeholders and interconnected infrastructures (Gomes et al., 2025).

Within this context, renewable-intensive electricity systems face challenges that extend beyond the expansion of generation capacity. As the participation of variable renewable sources increases, electricity systems become more dependent on flexibility-oriented infrastructures capable of balancing intermittency, maintaining operational reliability, and ensuring adequate supply under climatic uncertainty (Lund et al., 2015; Heptonstall & Gross, 2021). Consequently, energy storage systems, smart grids, adaptive transmission networks, and demand-response mechanisms have become central components of contemporary energy-transition strategies (Koohi-Fayegh & Rosen, 2020; Khalili et al., 2025; Sousa et al., 2025). At the same time, resilience-oriented approaches emphasize that electricity systems should also be evaluated according to their adaptive capacity, operational robustness, and ability to recover from climatic and infrastructural disturbances (Panteli & Mancarella, 2015; Gasser et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2024; Soares et al., 2026).

Empirical evidence indicates that renewable-capacity expansion does not necessarily result in proportional emissions reductions. Operational constraints, backup-generation requirements, hydrological variability, and system-management practices continue to influence the carbon intensity of electricity systems, even in scenarios characterized by high renewable penetration (Hirth, 2013; Jenkins et al., 2018). Consequently, understanding the relationship between electricity-generation expansion and emissions dynamics requires an integrated perspective that simultaneously considers technological, operational, institutional, and environmental dimensions.

These discussions are particularly relevant in Brazil, where a historically hydroelectric-based electricity system is undergoing rapid diversification through the expansion of wind and solar generation. Although this transformation contributes to reducing carbon intensity, important questions remain regarding how infrastructure expansion affects emissions dynamics, operational reliability, and long-term decarbonization objectives. Despite the growing literature on renewable-energy deployment and greenhouse gas emissions, studies integrating electricity-generation expansion and emissions dynamics within a unified analytical framework remain limited. Addressing this gap contributes to advancing knowledge on the Brazilian energy transition and supports energy planning, infrastructure management, and sustainable production systems.

3. Methodology

This research adopts a quantitative, exploratory, and longitudinal approach based on the analysis of installed electricity-generation capacity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil. Time-series analysis was employed to examine the relationship between electricity infrastructure expansion and emissions dynamics, considering changes in the technological composition of the electricity matrix over time.

The study also incorporates an energy-transition perspective by evaluating generation sources, spatial distribution of infrastructure, and the expansion of renewable technologies within the Brazilian electricity system. This approach enables the assessment of infrastructure growth, operational characteristics, and carbon-intensity dynamics in the national context.

The research was structured in three stages: (i) data collection and processing, (ii) statistical modeling and visualization, and (iii) comparative analysis based on SEEG data. Figure 1 presents a summary of the methodological flow.

Figure 1
Methodological steps of the research. Source: Elaborated by the authors (2025).

3.1. Data collection and processing

The installed capacity data were obtained from the generation project database of the Generation Information System of the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL), in Excel format (.xltx). This database compiles technical and operational information on generation projects, including authorized and monitored capacity, type of generation, energy source, geographic location, and commissioning date. The dataset includes records updated through December 31, 2025.

Emissions data were extracted from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimates System (SEEG), maintained by the Climate Observatory, which provides annual historical series of emissions in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) based on IPCC methodologies (De Azevedo et al., 2018; Ribeiro et al., 2023). Energy sector data from 1995–2024 were used, allowing the integration of electricity infrastructure expansion with environmental indicators.

Data processing and cleaning were carried out in the R programming language, using the readxl and tidyverse packages for importing and transforming the datasets.

Data processing and cleaning were performed in the R programming language using the readxl and tidyverse packages. The procedures included variable standardization, treatment of missing and categorical data, transformation of date and numeric fields, and organization of generation technologies and geographic variables for subsequent statistical analyses.

After preprocessing, the dataset was used for descriptive statistics, temporal analyses of electricity-generation expansion, spatial assessments of infrastructure distribution, and evaluation of installed-capacity patterns by generation technology. Additional analyses included concentration measures, correlation analyses, and graphical visualizations developed primarily using the ggplot2 package.

3.2. Statistical modeling and visualization

The statistical analysis was structured as an integrated analytical workflow combining descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, spatial visualization, time-series analysis, and multivariate techniques to characterize the Brazilian electricity-generation system.

Initially, the spatial distribution of installed capacity was examined across states and municipalities through geographic visualizations and rankings of the largest generation hubs, allowing the identification of territorial concentration patterns and technological specialization.

Subsequently, the temporal evolution of installed capacity between 1995 and 2025 was analyzed using annual expansion series by generation technology, including hydroelectric (UHE), thermoelectric (UTE), wind (EOL), solar photovoltaic (UFV), small hydropower plants (PCH), and micro hydropower plants (CGH). This procedure enabled the identification of structural growth phases and changes in the composition of the electricity matrix over time.

To evaluate the relationship between electricity expansion and environmental performance, installed-capacity data were integrated with the SEEG historical series of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Comparative analyses were conducted between infrastructure expansion, renewable-generation growth, and emissions dynamics.

Additional quantitative analyses included descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation tests, emission-intensity indicators, and sensitivity analyses. The distribution of installed capacity by technology was also examined using boxplots and proportional participation analyses.

Finally, relationships among operational variables, including installed capacity, granted capacity, firm energy, plant age, and remaining concession period, were evaluated through correlation matrices and regression-based visualizations.

This set of procedures enabled an integrated assessment of the spatial structure, temporal evolution, and technological diversification of the Brazilian electricity sector.

3.3. Tools and reproducibility

The data processing and statistical analyses were conducted in RStudio (version 2024.12 or higher) using structured and reproducible scripts. The datasets and code may be made publicly available after peer review in accordance with transparency and open-science practices.

4. Results

4.1. Geographic distribution of installed capacity

Figure 2 presents the geographic distribution of installed electricity-generation capacity across Brazil. The results reveal a highly concentrated spatial structure combined with marked patterns of technological specialization among regions, reflecting both resource availability and the historical evolution of the Brazilian electricity sector.

Figure 2
Installed capacity distribution by generation type in Brazil. Source: Research data (2026).

Hydropower remains concentrated in traditional generation hubs located primarily in the North and Southeast regions, particularly in the states of Pará, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais. Wind generation exhibits a strong concentration in the Northeast, especially in Bahia, while solar photovoltaic generation presents a broader territorial distribution, with notable expansion in Minas Gerais and other southeastern states. Small hydropower plants (PCH and CGH) are more geographically dispersed, whereas thermoelectric generation remains concentrated mainly in the Southeast and Central-West regions.

The state-level distribution further highlights the concentration of generation infrastructure. Bahia accounts for 10.83% of the national installed capacity, followed by Minas Gerais (8.89%) and Pará (7.66%). Other states with significant participation include Piauí (5.75%), Rio Grande do Norte (5.62%), Rio Grande do Sul (5.61%), Pernambuco (5.37%), and Rondônia (5.28%). Together, these states represent a substantial share of the Brazilian electricity-generation capacity, evidencing the coexistence of traditional hydroelectric centers and emerging renewable-energy regions.

To further examine this concentration pattern, Figure 3 presents the municipalities with the highest installed electricity-generation capacity in Brazil.

Figure 3
Top municipalities by installed electricity capacity (Brazil). Source: Research data (2026).

The ranking is dominated by municipalities associated with large hydroelectric complexes, particularly Altamira, Vitória do Xingu, and Tucuruí in the state of Pará. Other major generation hubs include Porto Velho (RO) and Foz do Iguaçu (PR), which are also linked to large-scale hydroelectric infrastructure. These municipalities illustrate the historical concentration of electricity generation in a limited number of strategic locations within the National Interconnected System (SIN).

At the same time, municipalities such as São Gonçalo do Amarante (CE), Janaúba (MG), and Três Lagoas (MS) reveal the growing participation of wind, solar photovoltaic, and thermoelectric generation. This finding suggests that recent renewable expansion has promoted technological diversification without substantially altering the territorial concentration of installed capacity.

Overall, the results indicate that the Brazilian electricity matrix combines increasing technological diversification with a persistent concentration of infrastructure in specific states and municipalities. This pattern reinforces the strategic importance of transmission networks and may increase the sensitivity of the system to climatic and operational disturbances affecting key generation regions.

4.2. Evolution and technological diversification of installed capacity (1995–2025)

Figures 4and 5 present the evolution of installed electricity-generation capacity in Brazil and the technological composition of this expansion between 1995 and 2025. Together, the results reveal a long-term process of infrastructure growth accompanied by significant changes in the composition of the electricity matrix.

Figure 4
Total installed capacity in Brazil in Megawatts (MW) (1995-2025). Source: Research data (2026).

Figure 5
Installed capacity by generation type (1995-2025). Source: Research data (2026).

Throughout the analyzed period, installed capacity expanded continuously, reflecting successive investment cycles and the increasing demand for electricity. Three broad phases can be identified. The first phase (1995–2003) was characterized by institutional reforms and expansion initiatives associated with supply-security concerns following the electricity crisis of the early 2000s. The second phase (2004–2015) corresponded to the consolidation of large hydroelectric projects and the gradual incorporation of wind generation. The third phase, beginning after 2016, was marked by accelerated diversification driven primarily by wind and solar photovoltaic technologies.

The technological composition of this expansion reveals important structural changes. Hydropower remained the dominant source during most of the period and continued to play a central role in the Brazilian electricity system. However, its relative contribution to recent capacity additions declined as wind and solar generation expanded rapidly. Wind power experienced sustained growth after the 2010s, while solar photovoltaic generation became one of the main drivers of capacity expansion after 2016. In contrast, thermoelectric generation maintained a relatively stable participation, reflecting its continuing role in supporting system reliability.

These results indicate that the recent expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector has been characterized less by the replacement of existing technologies and more by the addition of new renewable sources to an already predominantly renewable system. Consequently, the electricity transition has occurred through diversification rather than through a disruptive restructuring of the generation mix.

Overall, the findings reveal a gradual transformation of the Brazilian electricity matrix, combining continuous infrastructure growth with increasing technological diversity and a growing contribution from non-conventional renewable sources.

4.3. Installed capacity expansion and emissions dynamics (1995–2024)

Figures 6and 7 present the evolution of installed electricity-generation capacity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil between 1995 and 2024, providing an integrated view of infrastructure expansion and environmental performance.

Figure 6
Electricity capacity and GHG emissions in Brazil (1995–2024). Source: Research data (2026).

Figure 7
Installed capacity (UHE, UFV, EOL) and GHG emissions in Brazil (1995–2024). Source: Research data (2026).

The results indicate that installed capacity and emissions followed distinct trajectories throughout the analyzed period. While electricity-generation capacity expanded continuously, particularly after the 2000s, emissions remained comparatively more stable, exhibiting periods of decline followed by temporary increases associated with operational and climatic conditions. This pattern suggests that infrastructure growth was not accompanied by proportional increases in emissions.

The technological composition of capacity expansion helps explain this behavior. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, growth was driven primarily by large-scale hydropower projects, consistent with the historical development model of the Brazilian electricity sector. From the late 2000s onward, wind generation expanded steadily, while solar photovoltaic generation accelerated after 2017, becoming one of the principal contributors to recent capacity additions. In contrast to the variability associated with hydropower expansion cycles, wind and solar technologies followed a more continuous growth trajectory.

Despite the substantial increase in renewable capacity, emissions did not decline monotonically throughout the period. Temporary increases were observed during years of greater operational stress, reflecting the continued influence of hydrological variability and thermoelectric dispatch on the electricity system. This finding is consistent with Hirth (2013) and Jenkins et al. (2018), who argue that renewable-capacity expansion alone does not necessarily guarantee proportional emissions reductions, particularly in electricity systems where operational flexibility and balancing requirements remain critical. The Brazilian case extends this discussion by demonstrating that emissions dynamics continue to be strongly affected by hydrological conditions even within a predominantly renewable electricity matrix.

Overall, the results provide evidence of a gradual reduction in the relative carbon intensity of the Brazilian electricity sector. However, they also indicate that emissions dynamics remain conditioned by broader operational and structural factors, suggesting that renewable expansion alone is insufficient to guarantee proportional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The visual patterns observed in Figures 6 and 7 were further examined through correlation analysis, sensitivity tests, and emission-intensity indicators. The results reinforce the existence of a non-proportional relationship between electricity-generation expansion and greenhouse gas emissions.

Pearson correlation analysis revealed a moderate negative association between renewable-capacity expansion and total emissions (r = −0.36; R² = 0.13), suggesting that the growth of renewable sources contributed to reducing the relative carbon intensity of the electricity sector. However, the low coefficient of determination indicates that emissions dynamics remain influenced by broader operational, climatic, and economic factors.

The correlation matrix presented in Figure 8 supports this interpretation by revealing stronger negative associations between emissions and renewable technologies, particularly wind and solar generation, whereas thermoelectric generation exhibits a slightly positive relationship with emissions.

Figure 8
Correlation matrix of emissions and installed capacity by source. Source: Research data (2026).

Sensitivity analysis excluding the year 2016 maintained the negative association (r ≈ −0.31), indicating that the observed pattern is robust to temporal fluctuations in infrastructure expansion. Likewise, emission-intensity indicators revealed a substantial decline over the analyzed period, reinforcing the evidence that renewable-capacity growth contributed to lowering the relative carbon intensity of electricity generation.

Taken together, the graphical and statistical analyses suggest a condition of partial decoupling between electricity-generation expansion and greenhouse gas emissions. Although renewable-capacity growth has contributed to reducing carbon intensity, emissions remain partially conditioned by hydrological variability, thermoelectric dispatch requirements, and other structural characteristics of the Brazilian electricity system.

Sensitivity analysis excluding the year 2016 maintained the negative association (r ≈ −0.31), indicating that the observed pattern is robust to temporal fluctuations in infrastructure expansion.

To further evaluate the relationship between renewable-capacity growth and environmental performance, an emissions-intensity indicator was estimated as the ratio between electricity-sector emissions and annual renewable-capacity additions (Equation 1).

$E{I}_t=\frac{E_{elec,t}}{C_{renew,t}}$ (1)

Where $E{I}_t$ represents emissions intensity in year $\left(t\right)$ ($tC{O}_{2}e/MW$), $E_{elec,t}$ corresponds to electricity-sector GHG emissions ($MtC{O}_{2}e$), and $C_{renew,t}$ represents the annual expansion of renewable capacity ($MW$).

The indicator reveals a substantial decline in emissions intensity over the analyzed period, reflecting the increasing participation of renewable sources in the Brazilian electricity matrix. As shown in Table 1, average emissions intensity decreased from 1.57 $tC{O}_{2}e/MW$ during 1995–2004 to 0.45 $tC{O}_{2}e/MW$ during 2015–2024, while average annual renewable-capacity expansion increased from 1,630 $MW/year$ to 4,450 $MW/year$.

Table 1
Renewable expansion and emissions intensity in Brazil (1995–2024).

Period	Average Renewable Expansion (MW/year)	Average Emissions (MtCO2e)	Emissions Intensity (tCO2e/MW)
1995–2004	1630	2.56	1.57
2005–2014	2050	1.88	0.92
2015–2024	4450	1.99	0.45

• Source: Elaborated by the authors (2026).

The results indicate an approximate 71% reduction in emissions intensity over the last three decades. This finding reinforces the evidence that renewable-capacity growth contributed to lowering the relative carbon intensity of electricity generation. However, the weak-to-moderate correlation coefficients and the low explanatory power of the regression model suggest that emissions dynamics remain influenced by broader operational, climatic, and economic factors, including hydrological variability and thermoelectric dispatch requirements.

Taken together, the graphical, statistical, and emissions-intensity analyses suggest a condition of partial decoupling between electricity-generation expansion and greenhouse gas emissions. Although renewable-capacity growth has contributed to reducing carbon intensity, emissions remain partially conditioned by structural characteristics of the Brazilian electricity system, indicating that renewable expansion alone is insufficient to guarantee proportional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

4.4. Operational characteristics of the Brazilian electricity system

Figures 9–12 provide a complementary perspective on the operational structure of the Brazilian electricity system by examining the distribution of generation technologies, the composition of installed capacity by energy source, the relationship between installed capacity and firm energy, and the correlation among key operational variables. Together, these analyses reveal how technological diversification, generation scale, and operational reliability interact within the current configuration of the electricity sector.

Figure 9
Distribution of granted capacity by generation type in Brazil. Source: Research data (2026).

Figure 10
Total installed capacity in Brazil by fuel source (Data in Megawatts (MW)). Source: Research data (2026).

Figure 11
Relationship between granted capacity and firm energy. Source: Research data (2026).

Figure 12
Correlation matrix between operational variables of electric generation plants. Source: Research data (2026).

4.4.1. Technological heterogeneity and generation structure

Figure 9 presents the distribution of granted capacity by generation technology. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in the scale of electricity-generation projects operating in Brazil, reflecting the coexistence of centralized and decentralized generation models.

Hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants exhibit the greatest variability in installed capacity, reflecting differences in project scale, technological configuration, and fuel composition. Wind generation displays a comparatively more homogeneous distribution, suggesting greater standardization in project size. In contrast, solar photovoltaic generation presents a wider dispersion, reflecting the coexistence of distributed-generation systems and utility-scale facilities. Small hydropower plants (PCH and CGH) occupy intermediate and lower capacity ranges, while nuclear generation remains highly concentrated due to the limited number of standardized facilities in operation.

These patterns indicate that the diversification of the Brazilian electricity matrix has occurred through the incorporation of technologies with markedly different scales and operational characteristics, increasing the structural complexity of the electricity system.

Figure 10 complements this analysis by presenting the composition of installed capacity according to energy source.

The results show that diversification has occurred within a still highly concentrated technological structure. Hydropower remains the dominant source of electricity generation, reflecting its historical role in national energy planning. However, the growing participation of wind and solar generation demonstrates the increasing relevance of non-conventional renewable sources in recent decades. Biomass also contributes significantly to the renewable portfolio, whereas natural gas remains the principal fossil-fuel source supporting electricity supply.

Although renewable sources account for most of the installed capacity, the concentration of capacity in a limited number of technologies remains evident. Hydropower, wind, and solar generation together represent the majority of the Brazilian electricity matrix, suggesting that diversification has expanded the portfolio of generation sources without fundamentally altering the concentration pattern of the sector.

4.4.2. Operational reliability and firm energy

Figure 11 examines the relationship between installed capacity and firm energy across generation technologies.

A strong positive relationship is observed between installed capacity and firm energy, indicating that larger generation facilities generally contribute proportionally more to the available generation capacity of the National Interconnected System (SIN). However, important differences emerge among technologies.

Hydroelectric and nuclear plants exhibit relatively stable relationships between installed capacity and firm energy, reflecting their greater operational predictability. In contrast, wind and solar technologies display greater dispersion, associated with resource variability and differences in generation profiles. Thermoelectric plants also present higher heterogeneity due to technological diversity and fuel composition.

Consistent with Lund et al. (2015) and Heptonstall & Gross (2021), the results indicate that renewable-energy transitions progressively depend on flexibility and system-integration capabilities rather than on installed-capacity expansion alone. The Brazilian evidence extends this discussion by showing that nominal capacity growth does not necessarily result in proportional increases in firm energy, highlighting the growing importance of balancing mechanisms, storage solutions, and operational coordination in renewable-intensive electricity systems.

4.4.3. Correlation among operational variables

Figure 12 presents the correlation matrix among the main operational variables of electricity-generation plants in Brazil.

The results reveal a highly coherent operational structure. Granted capacity, installed capacity, and firm energy exhibit very strong positive correlations, frequently exceeding 0.90. In particular, granted capacity and installed capacity show an almost perfect association (r = 0.99), indicating strong consistency between authorized and implemented infrastructure.

Conversely, plant age and remaining concession period present comparatively weak correlations with capacity-related variables, suggesting that generation scale is largely independent of institutional and life-cycle characteristics. The only moderate relationship is observed between plant age and remaining concession period (r = 0.47), reflecting the expected association between infrastructure maturity and concession duration.

From a methodological perspective, the strong correlations among granted capacity, installed capacity, and firm energy indicate potential multicollinearity issues in future econometric models. Therefore, the adoption of representative variables may contribute to improving model parsimony and statistical robustness.

Overall, Figures 9 –12 reveal that the Brazilian electricity system combines increasing technological diversification with strong operational consistency. Although renewable expansion has introduced greater heterogeneity in generation profiles, the system remains structurally concentrated around a limited number of technologies and strongly influenced by generation-scale variables. These findings reinforce the importance of considering not only capacity expansion, but also operational reliability, generation variability, and effective energy availability in long-term electricity planning and energy-transition strategies.

5. Discussion

The results reveal that the Brazilian electricity transition follows a distinctive pathway characterized by increasing renewable diversification without a proportional reduction in the structural factors that influence greenhouse gas emissions. Although renewable-capacity expansion contributed to reducing the relative carbon intensity of electricity generation, the decarbonization process remains conditioned by hydrological dependence, spatial concentration of infrastructure, and the operational role of thermoelectric generation.

This finding differs from transition pathways commonly observed in fossil-fuel-dominated electricity systems, where renewable expansion tends to replace carbon-intensive generation more directly and therefore produces stronger emissions reductions (Wood, 2019; Zou et al., 2023). In contrast, Brazil already operates a predominantly renewable electricity matrix based on hydropower. Consequently, the marginal effect of additional renewable capacity on emissions reduction is inherently smaller, making operational conditions and infrastructure characteristics increasingly important determinants of environmental performance.

The results therefore help explain why renewable expansion and emissions reduction do not necessarily evolve proportionally in renewable-intensive electricity systems. Rather than representing a simple process of technological substitution, the Brazilian case illustrates a more complex transition dynamic in which decarbonization depends on the interaction among generation diversity, system flexibility, infrastructure integration, and climatic conditions.

It is important to emphasize that the results should be interpreted as evidence of statistical association rather than causal relationships. Although renewable-capacity expansion is associated with reductions in carbon intensity, the analytical approach adopted in this study does not allow causal inference regarding the direct effect of renewable deployment on emissions dynamics. Other factors, including hydrological variability, thermoelectric dispatch, economic activity, and electricity demand fluctuations, may also influence the observed relationships. Therefore, the findings should be interpreted as indicative of systemic interactions rather than definitive evidence of causality.

5.1. Structural transformation of the Brazilian electricity system

The results indicate that the Brazilian electricity sector has undergone a significant structural transformation over the last three decades, characterized by continuous capacity expansion and increasing technological diversification. However, this transformation has not been accompanied by a proportional reconfiguration of the spatial organization of generation infrastructure. Instead, the findings reveal the coexistence of two simultaneous processes: the diversification of generation technologies and the persistence of territorial concentration patterns inherited from the historical development of the electricity sector.

The spatial analysis demonstrates that installed capacity remains concentrated in a limited number of states and municipalities, particularly those associated with large hydroelectric complexes. Hydropower generation continues to be strongly concentrated in the North region, while wind generation is predominantly located in the Northeast and solar generation exhibits a broader but still regionally differentiated distribution. This pattern helps explain why technological diversification has advanced more rapidly than the decentralization of electricity infrastructure.

The results therefore extend previous studies on the Brazilian electricity sector by showing that renewable expansion has primarily occurred through the addition of new technologies to an existing hydroelectric-based structure rather than through a complete reconfiguration of generation geography. While wind and solar energy have expanded substantially, historical hydroelectric hubs such as Altamira, Vitória do Xingu, Tucuruí, Porto Velho, and Foz do Iguaçu continue to concentrate a significant share of national installed capacity. This finding suggests that infrastructure legacies remain important determinants of current electricity-system configuration.

The temporal analysis further reinforces this interpretation. Three major phases can be identified in the evolution of installed capacity. The first phase (1995–2003) was characterized by institutional reforms and supply-security concerns following the electricity crisis of the early 2000s. The second phase (2004–2015) corresponded to the consolidation of large hydroelectric projects and the initial expansion of wind generation. The third phase, beginning after 2016, was marked by accelerated growth of wind and solar photovoltaic technologies, leading to a more diversified electricity matrix.

Unlike transition pathways frequently observed in fossil-fuel-dominated electricity systems, where renewable-energy expansion is associated with the progressive replacement of conventional generation technologies and substantial modifications to the structure of electricity supply (Wood, 2019; Zou et al., 2023), the Brazilian transition has occurred within an electricity system that was already predominantly renewable due to its historical reliance on hydropower. Consequently, the Brazilian case extends the international literature by demonstrating that diversification can occur through technological complementarity rather than through direct technological substitution. As a result, renewable expansion has primarily added new sources to an existing low-carbon electricity structure rather than replacing carbon-intensive generation on a large scale.

This interpretation also helps explain the continued operational relevance of thermoelectric generation. Despite the rapid expansion of wind and solar capacity, thermal plants remain important components of the electricity system because they provide operational support during periods of hydrological stress and renewable-generation variability. Consequently, the Brazilian transition should not be interpreted as a linear replacement of one generation technology by another, but rather as a gradual reconfiguration of a complex electricity system that must simultaneously ensure supply security, operational reliability, and environmental performance.

From a broader socio-technical perspective, the results support arguments that energy transitions are constrained by historical infrastructure, institutional arrangements, and long-term investment trajectories (Geels, 2002; Markard et al., 2012; Meadowcroft, 2009). The Brazilian case therefore contrasts with simplified views of decarbonization based exclusively on technology deployment. Instead, it illustrates how infrastructure legacies and spatial concentration patterns continue to shape the pace and characteristics of energy-transition processes.

Overall, the findings suggest that the future evolution of the Brazilian electricity system will depend not only on further renewable-capacity expansion but also on the ability to reduce territorial concentration, strengthen transmission infrastructure, expand distributed-generation initiatives, and improve coordination among generation technologies. These factors appear increasingly relevant as the electricity transition advances toward higher levels of renewable penetration and operational complexity.

5.2. Renewable expansion and emissions dynamics

The results indicate that the expansion of renewable electricity generation in Brazil has contributed to reducing the relative carbon intensity of the electricity sector, although without producing a complete decoupling between infrastructure growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While installed capacity expanded continuously throughout the analyzed period, emissions followed a comparatively more stable trajectory, suggesting that electricity-sector growth was not accompanied by proportional increases in carbon emissions.

This finding helps explain an important characteristic of renewable-intensive electricity systems. Unlike transition pathways commonly observed in fossil-fuel-dominated countries, where renewable deployment directly replaces carbon-intensive generation and often produces substantial emissions reductions (Wood, 2019; Zou et al., 2023), the Brazilian electricity sector already operates with a predominantly renewable generation mix. While renewable expansion in coal-dependent systems such as China and in several European electricity markets tends to directly displace carbon-intensive generation, the Brazilian electricity sector already operates from a comparatively low-carbon baseline due to the historical predominance of hydropower. Consequently, additional renewable deployment produces smaller marginal emissions reductions and shifts the focus of decarbonization from generation-source substitution toward operational flexibility, infrastructure integration, and system coordination.

The combined analysis of installed capacity, emissions dynamics, and technological composition reveals that the relationship between renewable expansion and emissions is not linear. Although wind and solar generation experienced accelerated growth after the 2010s, temporary increases in emissions were still observed during periods of hydrological stress and intensified thermoelectric dispatch. These results contrast with simplified assumptions that renewable-capacity expansion automatically produces proportional emissions reductions and instead suggest that the environmental performance of electricity systems depends on broader operational and infrastructural conditions.

The statistical results reinforce this interpretation. The moderate negative correlation between renewable-capacity expansion and total emissions, together with the reduction in emissions-intensity indicators over time, provides evidence that renewable growth contributed to limiting emissions growth. However, the relatively low explanatory power of the statistical models indicates that a substantial portion of emissions variability remains associated with factors beyond renewable deployment itself. Climatic variability, hydrological conditions, thermoelectric dispatch requirements, economic activity, and fluctuations in electricity demand continue to influence emissions dynamics.

These findings are broadly consistent with Hirth (2013) and Jenkins et al. (2018), who argue that the benefits of renewable expansion increasingly depend on system flexibility and integration capabilities. However, the Brazilian case extends this discussion by showing that, even within a predominantly renewable electricity matrix, emissions dynamics remain strongly influenced by hydrological variability and thermoelectric backup requirements. Unlike the fossil-based transition contexts that dominate the international literature, where renewable deployment primarily displaces carbon-intensive generation, the Brazilian experience highlights the continued importance of operational constraints in shaping decarbonization outcomes. In this sense, the results help explain why renewable expansion alone may be insufficient to ensure continuous emissions reductions in hydro-dominated electricity systems.

The decline in emissions intensity observed throughout the study period provides additional evidence of this transition process. Emissions intensity decreased substantially as renewable-capacity additions accelerated, indicating that the electricity sector became progressively more efficient in terms of emissions per unit of renewable expansion. Nevertheless, the persistence of emissions fluctuations demonstrates that decarbonization remains conditioned by operational requirements and infrastructure characteristics that cannot be captured solely through installed-capacity indicators.

From a methodological perspective, the results should be interpreted as evidence of statistical association rather than causal relationships. Although renewable-capacity expansion is associated with lower emissions intensity, the adopted analytical approach does not allow causal inference regarding the direct effect of renewable deployment on emissions behavior. Therefore, the observed relationships should be interpreted as indicators of systemic interactions among technological, operational, climatic, and institutional factors rather than as definitive evidence of cause-and-effect mechanisms.

Overall, the findings provide evidence of a condition of partial decoupling between electricity-generation expansion and greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable-capacity growth has contributed to reducing the relative carbon intensity of the Brazilian electricity sector, but the effectiveness of decarbonization remains strongly influenced by hydrological variability, thermoelectric backup requirements, and broader operational characteristics of the electricity system. This result contributes to the literature by demonstrating that decarbonization trajectories in renewable-intensive electricity systems may follow fundamentally different dynamics from those observed in fossil-based transition contexts.

5.3. Operational reliability and systemic challenges

The results reveal that the ongoing diversification of the Brazilian electricity matrix has increased not only the technological complexity of the system but also the operational challenges associated with maintaining reliability under conditions of growing renewable penetration. Although the expansion of wind and solar generation has strengthened the renewable profile of the electricity sector, it has also increased the importance of system flexibility, infrastructure coordination, and operational balancing mechanisms.

The analysis of generation technologies highlights substantial heterogeneity in generation scale, operational behavior, and contribution to firm energy. While hydropower and nuclear generation exhibit relatively stable relationships between installed capacity and effective energy availability, wind and solar technologies present greater variability due to their dependence on meteorological conditions. As a result, equivalent increases in installed capacity do not necessarily produce proportional gains in firm energy across different technologies.

This finding contrasts with planning approaches that rely primarily on installed-capacity indicators as proxies for electricity-system adequacy. The observed dispersion between installed capacity and firm energy, particularly for variable renewable technologies, demonstrates that nominal capacity expansion alone is insufficient to guarantee operational reliability. Instead, the effective contribution of generation assets depends on their ability to provide electricity under varying climatic and operational conditions.

The results therefore help explain why renewable-intensive electricity systems increasingly depend on complementary infrastructure and coordination mechanisms. As renewable penetration rises, system performance becomes progressively more influenced by transmission capacity, storage availability, balancing resources, and operational flexibility than by generation capacity alone. This result corroborates the arguments of Lund et al. (2015) and Heptonstall & Gross (2021), who emphasize that the challenges of highly renewable electricity systems progressively shift from generation expansion toward flexibility and system coordination. The Brazilian evidence reinforces this perspective by highlighting the combined influence of hydrological dependence and renewable variability on operational reliability.

The Brazilian case illustrates this challenge particularly clearly due to the interaction between renewable expansion and hydrological dependence. Although hydropower provides important operational flexibility, periods of drought reduce its ability to balance system variability, increasing the need for thermoelectric dispatch and other reliability mechanisms. Consequently, the transition toward a more diversified electricity matrix does not eliminate operational vulnerabilities but rather transforms their nature, requiring new approaches to infrastructure planning and system management.

The correlation analysis among operational variables further reinforces this interpretation. The strong relationships observed between granted capacity, installed capacity, and firm energy indicate a high degree of consistency between regulatory planning and infrastructure implementation. However, the weaker associations involving plant age and concession-related variables suggest that operational performance is primarily determined by technological and infrastructural characteristics rather than institutional maturity alone.

These findings also contribute to broader discussions on electricity-system resilience. This result is consistent with the resilience-oriented perspective proposed by Panteli & Mancarella (2015) and reinforced by subsequent studies (Gasser et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2024), which argue that highly renewable electricity systems should be evaluated not only according to their emissions performance but also according to their ability to maintain reliable operation under climatic uncertainty and infrastructure stress conditions. In this respect, the Brazilian experience extends conventional transition narratives by demonstrating that reliability, flexibility, and adaptive capacity emerge as critical dimensions of decarbonization, even within an electricity matrix already characterized by a high share of renewable generation.

From a systemic perspective, the coexistence of large hydroelectric complexes, thermoelectric backup generation, and rapidly expanding wind and solar technologies has created a hybrid operational structure. This configuration combines the environmental benefits of renewable diversification with the operational challenges associated with integrating heterogeneous generation technologies. Similar dynamics have been identified in other renewable-intensive systems, although the Brazilian case is distinguished by the simultaneous influence of hydrological variability, territorial concentration of infrastructure, and large-scale interconnected operation.

Overall, the findings indicate that the effectiveness of the Brazilian energy transition depends not only on further renewable-capacity expansion but also on the ability to strengthen operational flexibility, improve infrastructure integration, and enhance system resilience. Consequently, future planning efforts should increasingly incorporate firm-energy metrics, storage solutions, transmission expansion, and balancing mechanisms capable of supporting reliable operation under conditions of growing renewable penetration and climatic uncertainty.

5.4. Implications for energy planning and production engineering

The findings of this study have important implications for energy planning, infrastructure management, and production engineering. More broadly, they suggest that the effectiveness of low-carbon transitions cannot be evaluated solely through the expansion of renewable-generation capacity, but must also consider operational reliability, infrastructure integration, and the systemic conditions that influence electricity-system performance.

To synthesize the practical implications of the empirical results, Table 2 summarizes the main findings of the study and their respective implications for energy planning and production engineering.

Table 2
Main empirical findings and their implications for energy-transition planning.

Empirical Finding	Interpretation	Planning Implication
High spatial concentration of installed capacity in a limited number of municipalities and regions	Infrastructure concentration increases exposure to climatic and operational risks	Promote regional diversification of generation and strengthen transmission infrastructure to increase system resilience
Rapid expansion of wind and solar generation	Diversification does not automatically eliminate operational constraints associated with intermittency and variability	Expand storage systems, grid flexibility, and demand-side management mechanisms
Partial decoupling between renewable expansion and GHG emissions	Renewable growth contributes to reducing carbon intensity but does not fully determine emissions dynamics	Integrate energy planning with climate-policy objectives to ensure effective decarbonization outcomes
Continued dependence on thermoelectric generation during periods of hydrological stress	Hydrological variability remains a key determinant of system performance and emissions behavior	Develop low-carbon dispatchable alternatives and improve hydrological risk management
Discrepancy between installed capacity and firm energy in intermittent renewable sources	Installed capacity is not equivalent to effective energy availability	Incorporate firm-energy metrics and flexibility indicators into long-term planning models
Strong correlation among granted capacity, installed capacity, and firm energy	Regulatory planning and operational implementation remain highly aligned	Maintain regulatory consistency while adapting planning criteria to increasing renewable penetration

• Source: Elaborated by the authors (2025).

Table 2 highlights that the principal challenges associated with the Brazilian energy transition extend beyond renewable-capacity expansion itself. The results indicate that long-term decarbonization depends on the interaction among spatial diversification, operational flexibility, infrastructure integration, and regulatory coordination. Consequently, effective planning requires balancing environmental objectives, supply reliability, and operational resilience simultaneously.

A first implication concerns the limitations of planning approaches based primarily on installed-capacity targets. The results demonstrate that equivalent increases in installed capacity may produce different contributions to system adequacy depending on the technological characteristics of generation sources. In particular, the observed discrepancies between installed capacity and firm energy in wind and solar technologies indicate that nominal expansion alone is insufficient to guarantee long-term supply reliability. This finding helps explain why electricity planning increasingly requires the incorporation of flexibility indicators, storage capacity, transmission constraints, and balancing requirements alongside conventional capacity-expansion metrics.

A second implication relates to the spatial organization of electricity infrastructure. The persistence of strong territorial concentration, despite increasing technological diversification, suggests that generation expansion alone may not be sufficient to reduce systemic vulnerabilities. The concentration of generation assets in a limited number of regions increases exposure to climatic disturbances and operational disruptions, reinforcing the strategic importance of transmission expansion, distributed-generation initiatives, and regional diversification policies. In this respect, the Brazilian case highlights the need to integrate spatial and operational dimensions into long-term electricity planning.

The results also have implications for decarbonization strategies. Evidence of partial decoupling between electricity expansion and greenhouse gas emissions indicates that renewable deployment should not be interpreted as an automatic proxy for emissions reduction. This finding differs from assumptions frequently adopted in fossil-based transition contexts, where renewable expansion is often expected to produce direct environmental benefits through fuel substitution. In renewable-intensive systems such as Brazil, emissions outcomes remain strongly influenced by hydrological conditions, thermoelectric dispatch requirements, and broader operational characteristics. Consequently, climate and energy policies should be developed in a coordinated manner to ensure that renewable expansion translates into effective long-term emissions mitigation.

From a production engineering perspective, the findings reinforce the importance of adopting systemic approaches to infrastructure planning and operational management. The interaction among generation expansion, emissions dynamics, operational reliability, and spatial concentration demonstrates that energy-transition challenges increasingly resemble complex coordination problems involving multiple stakeholders, interconnected infrastructures, and competing performance objectives. In this sense, the results support the socio-technical transition perspective proposed by Geels (2002) and Meadowcroft (2009), which emphasizes that sustainability transitions emerge from interactions among technologies, institutions, infrastructure, and governance arrangements rather than from technological change alone. The Brazilian electricity transition provides empirical evidence of this multidimensional process. The results further support organizational and network-based perspectives emphasizing the role of coordination, information exchange, and system integration in the management of complex infrastructures (Gomes et al., 2025). As renewable penetration increases, effective decision-making depends not only on generation technologies but also on the ability to coordinate transmission systems, storage resources, regulatory frameworks, and operational planning processes. Therefore, the transition toward low-carbon electricity systems should be understood as both a technological and an organizational challenge.

This interpretation is consistent with Velho et al. (2024), who identified government actions, infrastructure planning, technological development, and innovation policies as fundamental drivers of low-carbon transitions in the Brazilian context. The Brazilian electricity transition similarly demonstrates that technological expansion alone is insufficient to ensure long-term sustainability outcomes, requiring coordinated governance structures capable of integrating infrastructure planning, regulatory instruments, and operational flexibility. In this context, instruments such as the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), combined with investments in storage technologies and grid modernization, may strengthen the long-term resilience and sustainability of the electricity sector.

Consistent with previous studies emphasizing the importance of operational flexibility in renewable-intensive systems (Hirth, 2013; Jenkins et al., 2018), the Brazilian evidence demonstrates that decarbonization outcomes cannot be explained solely by the expansion of renewable capacity. Unlike the fossil-based transition pathways described by Wood (2019) and Zou et al. (2023), where renewable deployment primarily replaces carbon-intensive generation, the Brazilian case reveals that operational and climatic factors continue to play a central role even within a predominantly renewable electricity matrix. This finding extends the international literature by highlighting important differences between renewable-intensive and fossil-dependent transition pathways and underscores the need for greater attention to system flexibility, operational resilience, and infrastructure integration in future transition research.

Nevertheless, some limitations should be acknowledged. The analyses identify statistical associations between infrastructure expansion and emissions dynamics but do not establish causal relationships. Other factors, including hydrological variability, economic activity, electricity demand, and operational dispatch decisions, may also influence the observed patterns. Future studies could employ econometric, causal-inference, or scenario-based approaches to further investigate these relationships and evaluate alternative transition pathways under different climatic and operational conditions.

Overall, the study suggests that future progress toward carbon neutrality in Brazil will depend not only on continuing renewable-capacity expansion but also on strengthening infrastructure flexibility, improving system coordination, reducing territorial vulnerabilities, and integrating environmental objectives into long-term planning processes. These challenges place production engineering in a strategic position to support the design of more resilient, efficient, and sustainable electricity systems.

6. Conclusion

This study investigated the relationship between electricity-generation expansion and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil by integrating infrastructure, operational, and environmental data over the period 1995–2024. The results demonstrate that renewable-capacity expansion contributed to limiting emissions growth and reducing the relative carbon intensity of the electricity sector, although without producing a proportional decline in emissions. Therefore, the findings indicate a condition of partial decoupling between electricity-generation expansion and greenhouse gas emissions.

This result directly addresses the research objective and contributes to the literature by demonstrating that renewable-capacity expansion and emissions reduction do not necessarily evolve proportionally in renewable-intensive electricity systems. This finding differs from transition dynamics commonly reported in fossil-fuel-dominated electricity systems, where renewable deployment frequently produces more direct emissions reductions through fuel substitution. In contrast, the Brazilian case demonstrates that operational and climatic factors remain important determinants of environmental performance even in a predominantly renewable electricity matrix. Consequently, decarbonization in renewable-based electricity systems depends not only on technological expansion but also on infrastructure integration, operational flexibility, and system coordination.

From a scientific perspective, the study advances existing knowledge by integrating electricity infrastructure expansion and sectoral emissions dynamics within a unified empirical framework. The combination of ANEEL infrastructure data and SEEG emissions records enabled a systemic assessment encompassing spatial, temporal, operational, and environmental dimensions. This approach extends previous studies that typically examined electricity expansion and emissions separately, providing a broader understanding of decarbonization dynamics in renewable-intensive electricity systems.

The findings also generate important practical implications for energy planning and production engineering. The persistence of spatial concentration in generation infrastructure, the discrepancy between installed capacity and firm energy, and the continuing operational relevance of thermoelectric generation indicate that renewable expansion alone is insufficient to guarantee long-term decarbonization and supply reliability. These results highlight the importance of transmission expansion, storage technologies, distributed generation, demand-side management, and planning approaches capable of incorporating flexibility and resilience requirements into future electricity-system development.

From a production engineering perspective, the results reinforce the need for systemic approaches to infrastructure planning and management. The interaction among generation expansion, emissions dynamics, operational reliability, and spatial concentration demonstrates that energy-transition processes increasingly involve complex coordination challenges requiring the integration of technical, environmental, and organizational dimensions. In this sense, the study contributes to the understanding of how infrastructure planning, operational decision-making, and sustainability objectives can be jointly addressed in large-scale energy systems.

Despite the relevance of the findings, some limitations should be acknowledged. The analyses identify statistical associations between infrastructure expansion and emissions dynamics but do not establish causal relationships. In addition, the use of annual aggregated data limits the assessment of short-term operational fluctuations, seasonal variability, electricity-market dynamics, and detailed dispatch decisions. Therefore, the results should be interpreted as evidence of systemic interactions rather than direct cause-and-effect relationships.

Future research may expand this agenda through spatiotemporal analyses incorporating hydrological variability, hourly operational data, storage systems, transmission constraints, and plant-repowering strategies. The application of optimization, simulation, and scenario-based approaches may also contribute to evaluating alternative pathways for renewable integration and long-term decarbonization under different climatic and operational conditions.

Overall, the study demonstrates that the Brazilian energy transition should be understood not merely as a process of renewable-capacity expansion, but as a broader transformation involving infrastructure adaptation, operational coordination, and long-term planning. The Brazilian case highlights that achieving carbon-neutrality objectives in renewable-intensive electricity systems requires balancing emissions reduction, system reliability, and operational resilience simultaneously.

Data availability

Research data is available in the body of the article.

• How to cite this article:
  Gomes, H. C., Garcia, M. V., Lima, G. S., Dória, R. C. M., & Silva, W. N. (2026). Production engineering and energy transition: comparison of installed capacity and GHG emissions in the Brazilian power sector. Production, 36, e20250092. https://doi.org/10.14488/1980-5411.20250092
• Financial support
  This research did not receive external funding or support.
• Ethical statement
  This study is a literature-based investigation and did not involve experiments, surveys, interviews, or any direct interaction with human participants or animals. Since the research relied exclusively on previously published studies, approval by a Research Ethics Committee and informed consent were not required.

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Edited by

• Editor(s):
  Antonio Cezar Bornia
  Madalena Araújo
  Paulo Afonso

Publication Dates

• Publication in this collection
  14 Aug 2026
• Date of issue
  2026

History

• Received
  09 Oct 2025
• Accepted
  03 July 2026