INVESTOR SENTIMENT AND EARNINGS MANAGEMENT: DOES ANALYSTS’ MONITORING MATTER?

MIRANDA, KLÉBER F.; MACHADO, MÁRCIO A. V.; MACEDO, LUCIANA A. F.

doi:10.1590/1678-6971/eRAMF180104

KLÉBER F. MIRANDA Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to Kléber F. Miranda, Avenida Francisco Mota, 572, Costa e Silva, Mossoró, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, CEP 59.625-900. E-mail: mirandakf@ufersa.edu.br

Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido (Ufersa), Mossoró, RN, Brazil.

Kléber F. Miranda, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC); Márcio A. V. Machado, Universi- dade de Brasília (UnB); Luciana A. F. Macedo, Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Kléber F. Miranda is now Professor at Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido (Ufersa). Márcio A. V. Machado is now Professor at Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Luciana A. F. Macedo is now Professor at União de Ensino Superior de Campina Grande (Unesc).

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9164-6709

MÁRCIO A. V. MACHADO

Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB), João Pessoa, PB, Brazil.

Kléber F. Miranda, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC); Márcio A. V. Machado, Universi- dade de Brasília (UnB); Luciana A. F. Macedo, Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Kléber F. Miranda is now Professor at Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido (Ufersa). Márcio A. V. Machado is now Professor at Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Luciana A. F. Macedo is now Professor at União de Ensino Superior de Campina Grande (Unesc).

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2635-5240

LUCIANA A. F. MACEDO

União de Ensino Superior de Campina Grande (Unesc), Campina Grande, PB, Brazil.

Kléber F. Miranda, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC); Márcio A. V. Machado, Universi- dade de Brasília (UnB); Luciana A. F. Macedo, Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Kléber F. Miranda is now Professor at Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido (Ufersa). Márcio A. V. Machado is now Professor at Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Luciana A. F. Macedo is now Professor at União de Ensino Superior de Campina Grande (Unesc).

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9861-9642

Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to Kléber F. Miranda, Avenida Francisco Mota, 572, Costa e Silva, Mossoró, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, CEP 59.625-900. E-mail: mirandakf@ufersa.edu.br

Kléber F. Miranda, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC); Márcio A. V. Machado, Universi- dade de Brasília (UnB); Luciana A. F. Macedo, Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB).

Kléber F. Miranda is now Professor at Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido (Ufersa). Márcio A. V. Machado is now Professor at Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB). Luciana A. F. Macedo is now Professor at União de Ensino Superior de Campina Grande (Unesc).

Variable	Description
Leverage	The firm's gross debt divided by lagged total assets
ROA	Firm's operating profit divided by lagged total assets
Size	Firm's total assets logarithm
CFO	Firm's operating cash flow divided by lagged total assets
MB	Firms' market equity divided by book equity
Monit	Number of analysts

Variable	Expected Sign	Source
Sent_t-1	+	(Ali & Gurun, 2009Ali, A., & Gurun, U. G. (2009). Investor sentiment, accruals anomaly, and accruals management. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 24(3), 415- 431. doi:10.1177/0148558X0902400305 https://doi.org/10.1177/0148558X09024003... ; Simpson, 2013Simpson, A. (2013). Does investor sentiment affect earnings management? Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 40(7-8), 869-900. doi:10.1111/jbfa.12038 https://doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12038... )
Leverage_i,t-1	+	(Dechow, Sloan, & Sweeney, 1996Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by the SEC. Contemporary Accounting Research, 13(1), 1-36. doi:10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996.tb00489.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996... )
ROA _i,t-1	-	(Gu, Lee, & Rosett, 2005Gu, Z., Lee, C.-W. J., & Rosett, J. G. (2005). What determines the variability of accounting accruals? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 24(3), 313-334. doi:10.1007/s11156-005-6869-1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-005-6869-... )
Size _i,t-1	-	(Dechow, Ge, & Schrand, 2010Dechow, P. M., Ge, W., & Schrand, C. (2010). Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50(2-3), 344-401. doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.09.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.0... )
CFO _i,t-1	+	(Dechow et al., 1996Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by the SEC. Contemporary Accounting Research, 13(1), 1-36. doi:10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996.tb00489.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996... ; Gu et al., 2005Gu, Z., Lee, C.-W. J., & Rosett, J. G. (2005). What determines the variability of accounting accruals? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 24(3), 313-334. doi:10.1007/s11156-005-6869-1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-005-6869-... )
MB _i,t-1	+	(Almeida et al., 2011Almeida, J. E. F. de, Lopes, A. B., & Corrar, L. J. (2011). Gerenciamento de resultados para sustentar a expectativa do mercado de capitais: Impactos no índice market-to-book. Advances in Scientific and Applied Accounting, 4(1), 44-62. Retrieved from http://www.spell.org.br/documentos/download/14508 http://www.spell.org.br/documentos/downl... )
Monit _i,t	-	(Buchner et al., 2017Buchner, A., Mohamed, A., & Saadouni, B. (2017). The association between earnings forecast in IPOs prospectuses and earnings management: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 51, 92-105. doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2017.08.008 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.08... ; Martinez, 2011Martinez, A. L. (2011). The role of analysts as gatekeepers: enhancing transparency and curbing earnings management in Brazil. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 15(4), 712-730. doi:10.1590/S1415-65552011000400009 https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-6555201100... )

Variable	Average	Deviation	Minimum	Q.25	Median	Q.75	Maximum
EM_i,t	0.011	0.014	0.000	0.003	0.007	0.014	0.131
Sent_t-1	0.517	0.747	-0.637	-0.172	0.194	1.338	1.791
Leverage_i,t-1	0.326	0.166	0.000	0.210	0.322	0.428	1.081
ROA_i,t-1	0.021	0.030	-0.164	0.009	0.018	0.032	0.902
Size_i,t-1	15.475	1.321	11.792	14.581	15.362	16.388	18.981
CFO_i,t-1	0.018	0.037	-0.570	0.001	0.018	0.036	0.314
MB_i,t-1	1.895	1.986	-45.252	0.765	1.372	2.410	12.477
Monit_i,t	7.068	5.049	0.000	2.000	7.000	11.000	18.000

$\begin{matrix} {EM}_{i, t} = α_{0} + β_{1} {Sent}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {Leverage}_{i, t - 1} + β_{3} {ROA}_{i, t - 1} + β_{4} {Size}_{i, t - 1} + β_{5} {CFO}_{i, t - 1} + β_{6} {MB}_{i, t - 1} + \\ β_{7} {Monit}_{i, t} + \sum λ_{i} + \sum δ_{t} + ε_{i, t} \end{matrix}$
Variables	All sample	Monitored	Unmonitored
Constant	0.020 (3.365)	0.033 (5.236)	0.025 (2.114)
Sent_t-1	-0.001 (-2.853)	-0.001 (-3.821)	0.002 (1.677)
Leverage_i,t-1	-0.002 (-0.735)	-0.003 (-1.403)	0.002 (0.306)
ROA_i,t-1	-0.032 (-2.171)	-0.029 (-2.037)	-0.089 (-2.176)
Size_i,t-1	<0.000 (-0.706)	-0.001 (-2.874)	-0.001 (-0.819)
CFO_i,t-1	-0.018 (-2.061)	-0.018 (-2.086)	-0.015 (-0.625)
MB_i,t-1	<0.001 (1.235)	<0.001 (0.549)	<0.000 (-0.189)
Monit_i,t	<0.000 (-4.790)
Industry Dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes
Quarter Dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes
R² (Adjusted R²)	0.081 (0.074)	0.069 (0.062)	0.087 (0.049)
Number of observations	2.584	2.212	372

$\begin{matrix} {EM}_{i, t} = α_{0} + β_{1} {Sent}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {Leverage}_{i, t - 1} + β_{3} {ROA}_{i, t - 1} + β_{4} {Size}_{i, t - 1} + β_{5} {CFO}_{i, t - 1} + β_{6} {MB}_{i, t - 1} + \\ β_{7} {Monit}_{i, t} + \sum λ_{i} + \sum δ_{t} + ε_{i, t} \end{matrix}$
Variables	EM = Dechow et al. (2012)Dechow, P. M., Hutton, A. P., Kim, J. H., & Sloan, R. G. (2012). Detecting earnings management: A new approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 50(2), 275-334. doi:10.1111/j.1475-679X.2012.00449.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2012...			Sent = ICC			Quartiles
Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)	<0.25	>0.75
Constant	0.046 (5.142)	0.066 (6.057)	0.036 (2.014)	0.021 (3.402)	0.035 (5.101)	0.015 (1.174)	0.013 (1.425)	0.045 (3.552)
Sent_t-1	-0.001 (-1.582)	-0.001 (-1.675)	-0.001 (-0.338)	<0.000 (-1.347)	<0.000 (-2.003)	<0.001 (2.645)	<0.000 (-0.297)	-0.002 (-3.151)
Leverage_i,t-1	0.007 (1.997)	0.004 (0.996)	0.018 (1.857)	-0.002 (-0.753)	-0.004 (-1.428)	0.002 (0.311)	0.002 (0.333)	0.000 (0.065)
ROA_i,t-1	-0.016 (-0.920)	-0.023 (-1.187)	-0.020 (-0.322)	-0.032 (-2.167)	-0.029 (-2.008)	-0.092 (-2.261)	-0.043 (-1.067)	-0.004 (-0.168)
Size_i,t-1	-0.002 (-3.007)	-0.003 (-4.532)	-0.002 (-1.295)	<0.000 (-0.654)	-0.001 (-2.807)	-0.001 (-0.627)	<0.001 (0.248)	-0.002 (-2.262)
CFO_i,t-1	-0.005 (-0.242)	-0.006 (-0.271)	0.004 (0.118)	-0.017 (-2.013)	-0.018 (-2.093)	-0.019 (-0.802)	-0.026 (-1.632)	0.012 (1.030)
MB_i,t-1	0.001 (2.738)	<0.001 (0.909)	0.001 (1.015)	<0.001 (1.204)	<0.001 (0.511)	<0.000 (-0.431)	<0.000 (-0.393)	<0.001 (0.090)
Monit_i,t	<0.000 (-2.566)			<0.000 (-4.823)			0.001 (0.966)	-0.001 (-2.217)
Industry Dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Quarter Dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R²	0.054	0.056	0.097	0.079	0.066	0.092	0.047	0.109
Adjusted R²	0.048	0.049	0.059	0.072	0.059	0.054	0.021	0.084
Number of observations	2.584	2.212	372	2.584	2.212	372	664	627

\frac{{TA}_{t}}{A_{t - 1}} = α_{0} \frac{1}{A_{t - 1}} + α_{1} \frac{Δ {REV}_{t}}{A_{t - 1}} + α_{2} \frac{{PPE}_{t}}{A_{t - 1}} + λ_{0} \frac{{CF}_{t}}{A_{t - 1}} + λ_{1} \frac{{CF}_{t - 1}}{A_{t - 2}} + λ_{2} \frac{{TA}_{t - 1}}{A_{t - 2}} + ε_{t}

\begin{matrix} {EM}_{i, t} = α_{0} + β_{1} {Sent}_{t - 1} + β_{2} {Leverage}_{i, t - 1} β_{3} {ROA}_{i, t - 1} + β_{4} {Size}_{i, t - 1} + β_{5} {CFO}_{i, t - 1} + \\ β_{6} {MB}_{i, t - 1} + β_{7} {Monit}_{i, t} + Σ λ_{i} + Σ δ_{t} + ε_{i, t} \end{matrix}

[1] Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to Kléber F. Miranda, Avenida Francisco Mota, 572, Costa e Silva, Mossoró, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, CEP 59.625-900. E-mail: mirandakf@ufersa.edu.br

Brasil

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INVESTOR SENTIMENT AND EARNINGS MANAGEMENT: DOES ANALYSTS’ MONITORING MATTER?

SENTIMENTO DO INVESTIDOR E GERENCIAMENTO DE RESULTADOS: O MONITORAMENTO DOS ANALISTAS IMPORTA?

ABSTRACT

Purpose:

Originality/value:

Design/methodology/approach:

Findings: