The Predictive Ability of MAGGIC Score After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Comparative Study

ABSTRACT

Introduction:

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) are validated scoring systems for short-term risk estimation after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score is originally aimed to estimate mortality in heart failure patients; however, it has showed a similar power to predict mortality after heart valve surgery. In this study, we sought to evaluate whether MAGGIC score may predict short and long-term mortality after CABG and to compare its power with EuroSCORE II and STS scoring systems.

Methods:

Patients who underwent CABG due to chronic coronary syndrome at our institution were included in this retrospective study. Follow-up data were used to define the predictive ability of MAGGIC and to compare it with STS and EuroSCORE-II for early, one-year, and up to 10-year mortality.

Results:

MAGGIC, STS, and EuroSCORE-II scores had good prognostic power, moreover MAGGIC was better for predicting 30-day (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.903; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.871-0.935), one-year (AUC: 0.931; 95% CI: 0.907-0.955), and 10-year (AUC: 0.923; 95% CI: 0.893-0.954) mortality. MAGGIC was found to be an independent predictor to sustain statistically significant association with mortality in follow-up.

Conclusion:

MAGGIC scoring system had a good predictive accuracy for early and long-term mortality in patients undergoing CABG when compared to EuroSCORE-II and STS scores. It requires limited variables for calculation and still yields better prognostic power in determining 30-day, one-year, and up to 10-year mortality.

Keywords:
Coronary Artery Bypass; Area Under Curve; Heart Failure; Prognosis; Risk Assessment; Reproducibility of Results