Poor voter, poor place, “red” voter? Analysis of the PT’s electoral base from Porto Alegre

Abstract:

Does a strong vote in a wealthy state, municipality, or neighborhood imply greater support among wealthy voters? We assess this question by analyzing the electoral performance of the Workers’ Party (PT) in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil. Using an original database containing results from more than 20 years of electoral contests for the Executive (municipal, state, and national) and socioeconomic variables at the polling station level, located in Human Development Units (UDHs) - territorial groupings within the city based on the similarity of social characteristics - we evaluate some general hypotheses from the literature on Brazil regarding the relationship between social class and voting behavior, as well as other specific hypotheses derived from the electoral realignment thesis. First, we demonstrate that the PT vote has been associated with the poorest polling stations in the capital of Rio Grande do Sul since 1996. The poorer the polling station, the higher the vote for the PT, even before the party took office at the federal or state level. Second, using multilevel models, we demonstrate that context matters: lower income is more significant in wealthier areas of the city. However, these relationships have shifted in more recent municipal elections. In addition to contributing to the debate on realignment, the study innovates methodologically by analyzing the interaction of geographic factors in the electoral performance of Brazilian parties.

Keywords:
Social classes and voting; multilevel models, Porto Alegre, Workers’ Party