This study analyzes the decisions of members of the House on whether to seek higher office (governor or senator) during the period 1954-1974. It differs from previous ambition analyses in that it offers a more concrete theoretical base for the study of progressive ambition and it attempts to predict which members will seek higher office rather than just analyze the careers of members who did run. Hypotheses are offered which deal with the probability of winning a higher office, the value of the higher office, the value of the present office, and the impact of whether or not members are "risk-takers." These hypotheses are then tested. Finally, a number of other hypotheses which follow from the theory are discussed.
political career; risk-bearing; progressive ambition
