The presidential election of 2002: voting decision in the metro area of São Paulo

This paper analyses the behavior of voters in the metro area Sao Paulo during the presidential election of 2002, based on data from an academic survey. With the use of logistic regression analysis, the influences of demographic, social, economical, and attitudinal variables relative to the voters were tested in a model for each of the candidates. The last variable, expressed here in a different way compared to the one that has been used in the national literature (party preference), seems to be the most relevant in the voting models of Lula and José Serra. Therefore, this paper proposes a debate about the way the influence of "party feelings" of voters in their voting decision must be treated.

Brazilian politics; Presidential elections; Electoral behavior; Governmental performance evaluation; Party preference