Rivas, José Manuel; Bohigues, Asbel

Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Brasil

Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais

Español English

Brasil

Español English

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Sumário

Original Article • Rev. Bras. Ci. Soc. 37 (109) • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/3710904/2022 copiar

Friend or foe? When political elites evaluate foreign leaders

Autoria Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumo:

Os líderes são um ator chave nas relações internacionais; nos últimos anos, Hugo Chávez e o Papa Francisco tiveram um impacto notável além de suas respectivas áreas de influência tradicionais. Por que esses líderes têm esse tipo de popularidade? Mais importante, como as elites políticas os percebem? Este artigo tem como objetivo identificar, com evidências de dezoito parlamentos latino-americanos, o que determina as avaliações das elites políticas sobre uma variedade de líderes notórios na última década. Para determinar quais fatores estão por trás de suas avaliações, contamos com uma abordagem ‘amigo-inimigo’ da política, medida pela distância ideológica entre o próprio legislador e o líder. Os resultados apontam que essa lógica amigo-inimigo é o principal preditor na avaliação das elites pelas elites no cenário internacional.

Palavras-chave:
Elites; Liderança; Distância ideológica; Presidentes; América Latina

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Merkel evaluation	1,108	0.80	0.40	0	1
Chávez evaluation	1,092	0.24	0.43	0	1
Santos evaluation	1,151	0.62	0.49	0	1
Rousseff evaluation	1,036	0.61	0.49	0	1
Obama evaluation	2,087	0.66	0.47	0	1
Pope Francis evaluation	1,191	0.88	0.32	0	1
Morales evaluation	1,936	0.43	0.50	0	1
CFK evaluation	1,012	0.50	0.50	0	1
Merkel distance	1,066	2.89	2.42	0	9
Chávez distance	1,062	3.22	2.14	0	9
Santos distance	1,142	3.05	2.54	0	9
Rousseff distance	1,017	2.12	1.92	0	9
Obama distance	2,076	2.69	2.48	0	9
Pope Francis distance	1,134	1.93	1.85	0	9
Morales distance	1,922	2.78	2.24	0	9
CFK distance	999	2.19	1.84	0	9
Ideology	2,316	4.73	2.31	1	10
State-Market	2,357	5.42	2.58	1	10
FTA US	2,301	5.87	2.84	1	10
ALBA	2,238	4.82	2.89	1	10
Woman	2,358	0.26	0.44	0	1
Age	2,292	48.07	10.80	21	86
Studies	2,336	5.07	0.95	1	6
Study abroad	2,307	0.23	0.42	0	1
Income	2,253	2.25	1.11	1	4
Opposition	2,208	0.49	0.50	0	1
Religiosity	2,229	2.67	1.49	0	5

	Merkel		Chávez		Santos		Rousseff		Obama		Pope		Morales		CFK
Distance	-0.24	(0.05)***	-0.24	(0.08)***	-0.22	(0.03)***	-0.23	(0.06)***	-0.27	(0.04)***	-0.27	(0.07)***	-0.22	(0.07)***	-0.25	(0.07)***
Ideology	-0.07	(0.07)	-0.16	(0.11)	0.01	(0.04)	-0.03	(0.07)	0.01	(0.05)	-0.02	(0.11)	-0.08	(0.06)	-0.04	(0.07)
State/Market	0.09	(0.06)	-0.07	(0.10)	0.00	(0.04)	-0.08	(0.04)**	0.05	(0.03)	0.10	(0.06)*	-0.09	(0.03)***	-0.05	(0.04)
FTA US	0.10	(0.05)**	-0.17	(0.06)***	0.11	(0.04)***	-0.05	(0.06)	0.12	(0.03)***	0.09	(0.08)	-0.15	(0.04)***	-0.06	(0.05)
ALBA	0.03	(0.05)	0.49	(0.07)***	0.11	(0.04)***	0.29	(0.06)***	0.03	(0.03)	-0.01	(0.05)	0.30	(0.06)***	0.26	(0.04)***
Woman	-0.36	(0.22)	0.03	(0.23)	-0.20	(0.18)	-0.41	(0.15)***	0.20	(0.15)	0.21	(0.29)	0.31	(0.21)	0.23	(0.23)
Age	-0.02	(0.01)*	-0.01	(0.01)	-0.01	(0.01)*	-0.01	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	0.01	(0.01)	-0.01	(0.01)*
Studies	-0.24	(0.09)^* *** p ≤ 0.01; p ≤ 0.05; * p ≤ 0.1.	-0.19	(0.15)	0.00	(0.09)	0.07	(0.11)	0.02	(0.07)	0.00	(0.14)	-0.13	(0.11)	-0.27	(0.14)**
Study abroad	0.26	(0.28)	-0.14	(0.31)	-0.22	(0.17)	-0.12	(0.23)	-0.06	(0.18)	0.41	(0.34)	0.09	(0.17)	0.42	(0.18)**
Income	0.21	(0.16)	-0.36	(0.14)	0.03	(0.10)	-0.08	(0.14)	-0.02	(0.09)	-0.01	(0.13)	-0.19	(0.10)**	-0.20	(0.11)*
Opposition	0.11	(0.18)	-0.70	(0.31)	-0.07	(0.18)	-0.26	(0.36)	0.22	(0.12)*	-0.33	(0.26)	-0.52	(0.17)***	-0.73	(0.18)***
Religiosity	0.12	(0.07)*	-0.05	(0.11)	0.06	(0.06)	0.01	(0.07)	-0.04	(0.05)	0.23	(0.07)***	-0.05	(0.06)	0.04	(0.05)
Constant	4.34	(1.30)***	1.36	(1.31)	0.73	(0.76)	3.76	(1.17)***	1.09	(0.66)*	1.26	(1.18)	2.17	(0.81)***	3.96	(0.89)***
Adjusted clusters	34		26		34		30		54		34		52		28
Pseudo R2	0.22		0.54		0.14		0.33		0.18		0.18		0.43		0.27
N	822		825		897		772		1595		891		1508		745

	MERKEL		CHÁVEZ		SANTOS		DILMA		OBAMA		POPE		EVO		CFK
Distance	-0.24	(0.05)***	-0.24	(0.08)***	-0.22	(0.03)***	-0.23	(0.06)***	-0.27	(0.04)***	-0.27	(0.07)***	-0.22	(0.07)***	-0.25	(0.07)***
Ideology	-0.07	(0.07)	-0.16	(0.11)	0.01	(0.04)	-0.03	(0.07)	0.01	(0.05)	-0.02	(0.11)	-0.08	(0.06)	-0.04	(0.07)
State/Market	0.09	(0.06)	-0.07	(0.10)	0.00	(0.04)	-0.08	(0.04)**	0.05	(0.03)	0.10	(0.06)*	-0.09	(0.03)***	-0.05	(0.04)
FTA US	0.10	(0.05)**	-0.17	(0.06)***	0.11	(0.04)***	-0.05	(0.06)	0.12	(0.03)***	0.09	(0.08)	-0.15	(0.04)***	-0.06	(0.05)
ALBA	0.03	(0.05)	0.49	(0.07)***	0.11	(0.04)***	0.29	(0.06)***	0.03	(0.03)	-0.01	(0.05)	0.30	(0.06)***	0.26	(0.04)***
Woman	-0.36	(0.22)	0.03	(0.23)	-0.20	(0.18)	-0.41	(0.15)***	0.20	(0.15)	0.21	(0.29)	0.31	(0.21)	0.23	(0.23)
Age	-0.02	(0.01)*	-0.01	(0.01)	-0.01	(0.01)*	-0.01	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	0.01	(0.01)	-0.01	(0.01)*
Studies	-0.24	(0.09)***	-0.19	(0.15)	0.00	(0.09)	0.07	(0.11)	0.02	(0.07)	0.00	(0.14)	-0.13	(0.11)	-0.27	(0.14)**
Study abroad	0.26	(0.28)	-0.14	(0.31)	-0.22	(0.17)	-0.12	(0.23)	-0.06	(0.18)	0.41	(0.34)	0.09	(0.17)	0.42	(0.18)**
Income	0.21	(0.16)	-0.36	(0.14)	0.03	(0.10)	-0.08	(0.14)	-0.02	(0.09)	-0.01	(0.13)	-0.19	(0.10)**	-0.20	(0.11)*
Opposition	0.11	(0.18)	-0.70	(0.31)	-0.07	(0.18)	-0.26	(0.36)	0.22	(0.12)*	-0.33	(0.26)	-0.52	(0.17)***	-0.73	(0.18)***
Religiosity	0.12	(0.07)*	-0.05	(0.11)	0.06	(0.06)	0.01	(0.07)	-0.04	(0.05)	0.23	(0.07)***	-0.05	(0.06)	0.04	(0.05)
Country-year
Ecuador 09			0.63	(0.81)					0.32	(0.24)			-0.60	(0.68)
Argentina 07			0.07	(0.64)					-0.58	(0.25)**			-0.23	(0.49)
Honduras 10			-3.06	(0.85)***					0.08	(0.31)			-3.23	(0.43)***
Brazil 14			-0.30	(0.49)					0.09	(0.18)			-1.66	(0.38)***
Uruguay 10			-0.73	(0.70)					-1.67	(0.22)***			-1.64	(0.49)***
Chile 10			-1.31	(0.48)***					-1.71	(0.23)***			-1.50	(0.38)***
Costa Rica 10			-0.85	(0.69)					1.22	(0.51)**			-1.08	(0.46)**	-0.78	(0.28)***
Mexico 09			ref	ref					-0.81	(0.21)***			-0.58	(0.35)*	-0.63	(0.15)***
Peru 10			-0.66	(0.48)					-0.79	(0.16)***			-1.27	(0.53)**
Bolivia 10			0.05	(0.95)					-0.76	(0.21)***					-2.19	(0.34)***
DR 10			1.08	(0.52)**					0.31	(0.22)			-0.48	(0.40)	-0.44	(0.47)
Colombia 10			-0.15	(0.60)					-2.07	(0.20)***			-2.21	(0.66)***	-2.29	(0.30)***
Peru 11			0.15	(0.54)	0.11	(0.57)	-1.10	(0.53)**	-0.60	(0.63)			-0.81	(0.41)**	-0.05	(0.24)
Mexico 12	ref	ref			ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref
Ecuador 13	-2.00	(0.39)***			-0.02	(0.28)	-2.72	(0.85)***	-0.26	(0.18)	0.23	(0.51)	-0.38	(0.57)	-0.94	(0.54)*
Paraguay 13	-2.92	(0.49)***			-0.88	(0.33)***	-2.98	(0.64)***	-0.35	(0.14)**	-0.77	(0.55)	-0.63	(0.54)	-1.64	(0.59)***
Honduras 14	-0.80	(0.36)**			0.23	(0.38)	-1.32	(0.31)***	-0.38	(0.31)	-0.54	(0.46)	0.93	(0.51)*	-1.23	(0.23)***
Costa Rica 14	-1.25	(0.59)**			-0.15	(0.22)	-1.40	(0.43)***	-0.60	(0.11)***	0.18	(0.45)	-0.31	(0.36)	-0.81	(0.43)*
Panama 14	0.03	(0.43)			0.79	(0.26)***	-0.69	(1.08)	-1.43	(0.14)***	0.16	(0.50)	1.71	(0.63)***	-1.80	(0.20)***
Colombia 14	-1.42	(0.36)***					-2.63	(0.46)***	-0.50	(0.26)*	0.19	(0.45)	0.04	(0.51)	-2.28	(0.20)***
Chile 14	-0.71	(0.58)			0.02	(0.23)	-2.88	(0.53)***	-1.02	(0.14)***	-0.87	(0.56)	-1.01	(0.44)**	-1.13	(0.19)***
Uruguay 15	-2.20	(0.53)***			0.02	(0.46)	-5.04	(0.79)***	-2.41	(0.20)***	-1.45	(0.49)***	0.83	(0.45)*
Bolivia 15	-1.99	(0.65)***			-1.15	(0.29)***	-4.16	(0.77)***	-1.14	(0.61)*	0.65	(0.58)
Mexico 16	-1.51	(0.43)***			-0.39	(0.40)	-3.99	(0.75)***	-0.38	(0.45)	0.05	(0.48)
Guatemala 16	-1.74	(0.38)***			-0.24	(0.18)	-3.24	(0.35)***	-0.36	(0.26)	0.08	(0.74)
Venezuela 16	-2.71	(0.47)***			-1.35	(0.25)***	-4.91	(1.02)***	-0.59	(0.65)	0.24	(0.64)	-1.60	(0.66)**
Dominican R. 17	-2.29	(0.35)***			0.30	(0.37)					1.98	(0.66)***	0.72	(0.40)*
Ecuador 17	-1.10	(0.43)**			0.38	(0.37)					0.41	(1.24)	1.08	(0.37)***
Nicaragua 17	-2.13	(0.59)***			-1.16	(0.28)***					-0.15	(1.00)	0.21	(0.69)
El Salvador 15	-1.07	(1.17)			1.12	(0.66)*	-0.50	(0.38)	-0.87	(0.21)***	0.52	(0.83)	3.01	(0.45)***
Constant	4.34	(1.30)^* *** p ≤ 0.01; p ≤ 0.05; * p ≤ 0.1.	1.36	(1.31)	0.73	(0.76)	3.76	(1.17)***	1.09	(0.66)*	1.26	(1.18)	2.17	(0.81)***	3.96	(0.89)***
Adjusted clusters	34		26		34		30		54		34		52		28
Pseudo R2	0.22		0.54		0.14		0.33		0.18		0.18		0.43		0.27
N	822		825		897		772		1595		891		1508		745

	MERKEL		CHÁVEZ		SANTOS		DILMA		OBAMA		POPE		EVO		CFK
Distance	-0.24	(0.04)***	-0.15	(0.04)***	-0.20	(0.03)***	-0.12	(0.04)***	-0.29	(0.04)***	-0.21	(0.05)***	-0.21	(0.05)***	-0.24	(0.05)***
Ideology	-0.02	(0.05)	-0.09	(0.06)	-0.01	(0.04)	-0.02	(0.04)	-0.01	(0.04)	-0.01	(0.06)	-0.07	(0.05)	0.00	(0.04)
State/Market	0.05	(0.04)	-0.09	(0.04)***	-0.03	(0.03)	-0.07	(0.02)***	0.05	(0.02)**	0.06	(0.03)**	-0.08	(0.02)***	-0.09	(0.03)***
FTA US	0.13	(0.04)***	-0.15	(0.03)***	0.11	(0.03)***	-0.07	(0.04)	0.14	(0.03)***	0.11	(0.04)***	-0.15	(0.03)***	-0.07	(0.04)*
ALBA	-0.01	(0.03)	0.39	(0.03)***	0.07	(0.03)**	0.22	(0.05)***	0.00	(0.03)	0.00	(0.03)	0.33	(0.04)***	0.26	(0.03)***
Woman	-0.06	(0.18)	-0.19	(0.12)	-0.17	(0.13)	-0.14	(0.12)	0.26	(0.12)**	0.12	(0.14)	0.10	(0.11)	0.06	(0.17)
Age	0.00	(0.00)	0.00	(0.00)	-0.01	(0.00)*	0.00	(0.00)	0.00	(0.00)	0.00	(0.01)	0.00	(0.00)	-0.01	(0.01)
Studies	-0.09	(0.08)	-0.16	(0.07)**	0.01	(0.06)	-0.07	(0.06)	0.04	(0.05)	0.03	(0.08)	-0.11	(0.06)*	-0.13	(0.08)
Study abroad	0.12	(0.15)	0.01	(0.13)	-0.26	(0.13)**	0.05	(0.14)	-0.07	(0.09)	0.23	(0.19)	-0.15	(0.12)	0.09	(0.15)
Income	0.10	(0.09)	-0.21	(0.07)***	0.02	(0.07)	-0.01	(0.10)	-0.04	(0.06)	-0.11	(0.09)	-0.16	(0.06)***	-0.16	(0.09)*
Opposition	-0.09	(0.09)	-0.69	(0.17)***	-0.13	(0.14)	-0.48	(0.24)*	0.15	(0.13)	-0.39	(0.14)***	-0.46	(0.13)***	-0.68	(0.13)***
Religiosity	0.06	(0.04)	-0.06	(0.05)	0.09	(0.04)**	-0.01	(0.04)	-0.01	(0.03)	0.22	(0.05)***	-0.05	(0.03)	0.04	(0.03)
Country-year
Ecuador 09			0.41	(0.50)					0.32	(0.46)			-0.89	(0.48)*
Argentina 07			-0.59	(0.40)					-0.30	(0.29)			-0.24	(0.43)
Honduras 10			-1.48	(0.26)***					-0.02	(0.23)			-2.58	(0.36)***
Brazil 14			-0.72	(0.26)***					0.09	(0.32)			-1.77	(0.34)***
Uruguay 10			-0.84	(0.30)***					-1.09	(0.36)***			-1.59	(0.37)***
Chile 10			-0.42	(0.25)					-1.15	(0.31)***			-1.14	(0.40)***
Costa Rica 10			-0.65	(0.40)					0.30	(0.24)			-1.33	(0.50)***	-0.40	(0.32)
Mexico 09			ref	Ref					-0.66	(0.21)***			-0.69	(0.34)**	-0.23	(0.07)***
Peru 10			-0.15	(0.29)					-0.60	(0.21)***			-1.09	(0.51)**
Bolivia 10			0.22	(0.78)					-0.45	(0.25)*					-0.92	(0.30)***
DR 10			0.05	(0.20)					-0.12	(0.25)			-0.68	(0.36)*	0.11	(0.43)
Colombia 10			-0.45	(0.35)					-1.46	(0.25)***			-1.58	(0.43)***	-1.01	(0.13)***
Peru 11			-0.18	(0.23)	0.31	(0.51)	0.06	(0.38)	-0.37	(0.58)			-1.18	(0.40)***	0.28	(0.10)***
Mexico 12	ref	ref			ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref
Ecuador 13	-0.97	(0.14)***			0.01	(0.28)	-1.31	(0.50)**	-0.10	(0.27)	0.01	(0.47)	-0.43	(0.40)	-0.40	(0.22)*
Paraguay 13	-1.80	(0.13)***			-0.53	(0.33)	-1.69	(0.50)***	0.05	(0.23)	-0.73	(0.45)	-0.85	(0.48)*	-0.71	(0.40)*
Honduras 14	-0.34	(0.10)***			0.16	(0.38)	-0.12	(0.15)	-0.02	(0.34)	-0.09	(0.45)	0.77	(0.41)*	-0.17	(0.11)
Costa Rica 14	-0.71	(0.28)**			-0.32	(0.39)	-0.75	(0.10)***	-0.54	(0.23)**	0.41	(0.44)	0.24	(0.37)	-0.06	(0.18)
Panama 14	-0.75	(0.16)***			0.16	(0.25)	-0.50	(0.34)	-0.82	(0.22)***	0.49	(0.46)	1.13	(0.48)**	-0.79	(0.14)***
Colombia 14	-0.72	(0.12)***					-1.35	(0.25)***	-0.35	(0.33)	-0.15	(0.44)	-0.32	(0.48)	-1.34	(0.23)***
Chile 14	-1.15	(0.14)***			0.12	(0.33)	-1.47	(0.22)***	-0.84	(0.23)***	-1.09	(0.49)**	-0.75	(0.34)**	-0.68	(0.14)***
Uruguay 15	-1.36	(0.22)***			-0.21	(0.36)	-3.05	(0.44)***	-1.48	(0.30)***	-1.16	(0.57)**	0.27	(0.48)
Bolivia 15	-0.73	(0.28)**			-1.02	(0.29)***	-2.32	(0.34)***	-1.15	(0.90)	0.49	(0.52)
Mexico 16	-0.60	(0.14)***			-0.32	(0.32)	-2.40	(0.49)***	-0.12	(0.38)	-0.49	(0.44)
Guatemala 16	-0.57	(0.10)***			-0.19	(0.30)	-1.78	(0.17)***	0.00	(0.23)	-0.05	(0.45)
Venezuela 16	-1.80	(0.47)***			-1.23	(0.38)***	-2.78	(1.04)**	-0.65	(0.95)	0.47	(0.56)	-1.40	(0.79)*
Dominican R. 17	-1.10	(0.13)***			0.30	(0.30)					0.44	(0.48)	0.42	(0.45)
Ecuador 17	-0.33	(0.22)			0.57	(0.35)					0.44	(0.66)	0.86	(0.36)**
Nicaragua 17	-1.03	(0.43)**			-0.94	(0.30)***					0.22	(0.75)	0.45	(0.69)
El Salvador 15	-0.61	(0.20)^* *** p ≤ 0.01; p ≤ 0.05; * p ≤ 0.1.			0.95	(0.28)***	-0.21	(0.41)	-0.51	(0.28)*	0.64	(0.55)	2.45	(0.55)***
Constant	7.84	(0.74)***	6.21	(0.78)***	6.18	(0.58)***	8.21	(0.72)***	6.15	(0.56)***	7.36	(0.77)***	7.60	(0.60)***	7.62	(0.66)***
Adjusted clusters	34		26		34		30		54		34		52		28
Pseudo R2	0.29		0.67		0.26		0.45		0.34		0.24		0.65		0.43
N	822		825		897		772		1595		891		1508		745

	MERKEL		CHÁVEZ		SANTOS		DILMA		OBAMA		POPE		EVO		CFK
Distance	-0.22	(0.05)***	-0.27	(0.07)^* *** p ≤ 0.01; p ≤ 0.05; * p ≤ 0.1.	-0.25	(0.04)***	-0.15	(0.05)***	-0.32	(0.04)***	-0.19	(0.05)***	-0.25	(0.06)***	-0.28	(0.05)***
Ideology	0.01	(0.06)	-0.05	(0.07)	-0.01	(0.05)	-0.02	(0.06)	-0.01	(0.05)	-0.04	(0.06)	-0.07	(0.06)	-0.01	(0.05)
State/Market	0.05	(0.04)	-0.10	(0.05)**	-0.03	(0.04)	-0.08	(0.03)**	0.05	(0.02)**	0.09	(0.04)**	-0.09	(0.02)***	-0.11	(0.03)***
FTA US	0.14	(0.04)***	-0.18	(0.03)***	0.13	(0.04)***	-0.06	(0.05)	0.16	(0.03)***	0.14	(0.04)***	-0.16	(0.03)***	-0.06	(0.04)*
ALBA	0.00	(0.03)	0.46	(0.04)***	0.09	(0.04)***	0.27	(0.06)***	0.01	(0.03)	0.01	(0.03)	0.37	(0.04)***	0.28	(0.04)***
Woman	-0.01	(0.18)	-0.48	(0.16)***	-0.20	(0.15)	-0.09	(0.13)	0.24	(0.13)*	0.19	(0.18)	0.09	(0.12)	0.07	(0.19)
Age	0.00	(0.01)	0.01	(0.01)	-0.01	(0.01)*	0.00	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	0.00	(0.01)	-0.01	(0.01)
Studies	-0.07	(0.09)	-0.12	(0.07)*	0.01	(0.07)	-0.08	(0.07)	0.05	(0.06)	-0.03	(0.09)	-0.09	(0.06)	-0.12	(0.07)
Study abroad	0.13	(0.17)	0.01	(0.16)	-0.26	(0.13)*	0.04	(0.16)	-0.05	(0.11)	0.27	(0.21)	-0.22	(0.13)*	0.04	(0.16)
Income	0.11	(0.09)	-0.28	(0.11)***	0.02	(0.09)	-0.03	(0.12)	-0.08	(0.08)	-0.13	(0.12)	-0.16	(0.06)**	-0.16	(0.09)*
Opposition	-0.10	(0.10)	-0.80	(0.19)***	-0.15	(0.16)	-0.50	(0.27)*	0.13	(0.14)	-0.28	(0.14)**	-0.50	(0.15)***	-0.76	(0.15)***
Religiosity	0.02	(0.05)	-0.04	(0.06)	0.09	(0.04)**	-0.03	(0.05)	-0.01	(0.04)	0.22	(0.05)***	-0.05	(0.04)	0.03	(0.04)
Country-year
Ecuador 09			-0.14	(0.55)					0.25	(0.57)			-1.09	(0.48)**
Argentina 07			-1.00	(0.35)***					-0.46	(0.34)			-0.45	(0.38)
Honduras 10			-2.72	(0.23)***					-0.07	(0.30)			-3.20	(0.35)***
Brazil 14			-1.10	(0.26)***					0.07	(0.38)			-1.87	(0.33)***
Uruguay 10			-1.44	(0.34)***					-1.36	(0.42)***			-1.81	(0.37)***
Chile 10			-0.61	(0.27)**					-1.36	(0.39)***			-1.22	(0.35)***
Costa Rica 10			-1.06	(0.40)***					0.31	(0.30)			-1.43	(0.53)***	-0.32	(0.30)
Mexico 09			ref	Ref					-0.72	(0.29)**			-0.78	(0.31)**	-0.17	(0.10)*
Peru 10			-0.56	(0.22)***					-0.75	(0.29)***			-1.19	(0.49)**
Bolivia 10			-0.36	(0.96)					-0.51	(0.34)					-1.00	(0.33)***
DR 10			-0.28	(0.15)*					-0.11	(0.30)			-0.80	(0.36)**	0.09	(0.49)
Colombia 10			-0.83	(0.32)**					-1.89	(0.33)***			-1.67	(0.42)***	-0.99	(0.19)***
Peru 11			-0.71	(0.22)***	0.19	(0.66)	-0.02	(0.33)	-0.30	(0.68)			-1.37	(0.40)***	0.28	(0.15)*
Mexico 12	ref	ref			ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref	ref
Ecuador 13	-1.21	(0.14)***			-0.13	(0.38)	-1.47	(0.59)**	-0.10	(0.34)	0.22	(0.53)	-0.63	(0.39)	-0.46	(0.24)*
Paraguay 13	-2.11	(0.20)***			-0.82	(0.42)**	-1.77	(0.57)***	0.05	(0.29)	-0.66	(0.47)	-1.01	(0.42)**	-0.78	(0.44)*
Honduras 14	-0.52	(0.15)***			0.15	(0.49)	-0.10	(0.17)	-0.01	(0.42)	0.17	(0.49)	0.76	(0.41)*	-0.01	(0.15)
Costa Rica 14	-0.98	(0.28)***			-0.54	(0.47)	-1.00	(0.14)***	-0.69	(0.32)**	0.40	(0.51)	0.11	(0.33)	-0.07	(0.17)
Panama 14	-1.17	(0.21)***			-0.03	(0.35)	-0.61	(0.33)*	-1.23	(0.31)***	0.71	(0.52)	1.11	(0.46)**	-0.72	(0.16)***
Colombia 14	-1.01	(0.17)***					-1.62	(0.25)***	-0.42	(0.38)	0.01	(0.46)	-0.53	(0.42)	-1.46	(0.27)***
Chile 14	-1.52	(0.11)***			0.16	(0.48)	-1.58	(0.28)***	-0.97	(0.30)***	-1.04	(0.49)**	-0.92	(0.32)***	-0.84	(0.20)***
Uruguay 15	-1.55	(0.22)***			-0.38	(0.48)	-3.57	(0.50)***	-1.80	(0.39)***	-1.10	(0.60)*	0.24	(0.57)
Bolivia 15	-0.72	(0.32)**			-1.31	(0.42)***	-2.63	(0.38)***	-1.28	(1.08)	0.96	(0.61)
Mexico 16	-0.82	(0.16)***			-0.58	(0.39)	-2.78	(0.57)***	-0.13	(0.47)	-0.50	(0.50)
Guatemala 16	-0.85	(0.11)***			-0.42	(0.39)	-2.02	(0.27)***	-0.06	(0.31)	-0.04	(0.49)
Venezuela 16	-1.99	(0.45)***			-1.52	(0.48)***	-3.26	(1.43)**	-0.68	(1.13)	0.79	(0.70)	-1.38	(1.00)
Dominican R. 17	-1.34	(0.13)***			0.32	(0.39)					0.45	(0.54)	0.14	(0.52)
Ecuador 17	-0.46	(0.17)***			0.61	(0.42)					0.78	(0.70)	0.78	(0.34)**
Nicaragua 17	-1.15	(0.54)**			-1.27	(0.39)***					0.60	(0.91)	0.51	(0.78)
El Salvador 15	-0.97	(0.25)***			1.04	(0.38)***	-0.21	(0.38)	-0.65	(0.33)**	0.93	(0.57)	2.66	(0.60)***
/cut1	-5.13	(0.87)	-4.86	(0.80)	-4.89	(0.79)	-7.36	(0.90)	-4.05	(0.74)	-4.18	(1.12)	-6.27	(0.69)	-6.51	(0.73)
/cut2	-4.18	(0.81)	-3.59	(0.84)	-3.83	(0.77)	-6.22	(0.88)	-3.61	(0.71)	-3.75	(1.10)	-4.89	(0.67)	-5.23	(0.69)
/cut3	-3.67	(0.83)	-2.59	(0.84)	-3.09	(0.78)	-4.97	(0.84)	-3.02	(0.71)	-3.45	(1.06)	-3.94	(0.67)	-4.25	(0.70)
/cut4	-3.12	(0.83)	-1.70	(0.84)	-2.27	(0.77)	-3.99	(0.87)	-2.28	(0.68)	-2.75	(1.00)	-3.07	(0.65)	-3.22	(0.68)
/cut5	-2.24	(0.82)	-0.81	(0.84)	-0.89	(0.77)	-2.97	(0.81)	-0.72	(0.65)	-1.24	(0.95)	-2.18	(0.66)	-2.29	(0.66)
/cut6	-1.41	(0.82)	-0.07	(0.84)	0.20	(0.79)	-1.99	(0.81)	0.23	(0.63)	-0.74	(0.96)	-1.46	(0.67)	-1.31	(0.67)
/cut7	-0.42	(0.81)	1.15	(0.87)	1.43	(0.78)	-0.72	(0.82)	1.40	(0.62)	0.03	(0.94)	-0.51	(0.68)	-0.43	(0.72)
/cut8	1.19	(0.84)	2.31	(0.89)	2.99	(0.79)	0.70	(0.83)	2.66	(0.62)	0.95	(0.95)	0.83	(0.66)	0.98	(0.73)
/cut9	2.40	(0.87)	3.29	(1.02)	4.42	(0.76)	1.66	(0.82)	3.74	(0.63)	1.80	(0.96)	2.04	(0.66)	2.02	(0.75)
Adjusted clusters	34		26		34		30		54		34		52		28
Pseudo R2	0.07		0.25		0.07		0.14		0.09		0.08		0.23		0.13
N	822		825		897		772		1595		891		1508		745

Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Ciências Sociais - ANPOCS Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 315 - sala 116, 05508-900 São Paulo SP Brazil, Tel.: +55 11 3091-4664, Fax: +55 11 3091-5043 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: anpocs@anpocs.org.br

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[1] E-mail: josema.rivaso@utadeo.edu.co