Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Análise do Impacto das Políticas de (Des)Oneração da Folha de Pagamento na Economia Brasileira* * O desenvolvimento desta pesquisa contou com o apoio do Programa PGPSE/CAPES (Auxílio Nº 0349/2016).

Abstract

In 2012 the Brazilian Federal Government adopted a payroll tax exemption, but in 2015 such policy was reviewed and changed by removing part of the exemption. The goal is to evaluate the economic impacts of these policies using a computable dynamic and multisectoral general equilibrium model developed for the Brazilian economy. The results show that the exemption policy would imply a cumulative growth impact of 0,34% in GDP, while the new policy leads to a cumulative growth impact −0,37%. This result is explained by the sectoral distortions resulting from the changes in the exemption policy which increases the cost of payroll in capital-intensive sectors as well as in their production cost of these goods, leading to reductions in the aggregated investment rate.

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