Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Free Trade Zone of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method* * I am grateful to FAPESP, that provided financial aid through grant number 2014/23,731-3. I also thank useful suggestions by Ricardo Paes de Barros, Sammara Cavalcanti, Bruno Ferman, Robert John Finlay, Sergio Firpo, João Garcia, Ana Paula Melo, Luis Meloni, Renan Pieri, Cristine Pinto and Felipe Yamada. All errors are my own.

I apply the synthetic control method to Brazilian city-level data during the twentieth century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Trade Zone of Manaus (FTZM). I find that this enterprise zone had significantly positive effects on real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had significantly negative effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. My results suggest that this subsidy policy achieved its goal of promoting regional economic growth at the cost of creating mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors. They also reject the view that an industrialization policy will benefit all economic sectors due to positive spill-overs from the manufacturing sector that are strong enough to compensate for the negative effect of the mis-allocation of resources.

Keywords:
Free Trade Zone of Manaus; Enterprise Zones; Synthetic Control Method


Fundação Getúlio Vargas Praia de Botafogo, 190 11º andar, 22253-900 Rio de Janeiro RJ Brazil, Tel.: +55 21 3799-5831 , Fax: +55 21 2553-8821 - Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil
E-mail: rbe@fgv.br