Elasticity of population (mis)reporting in Brazilian municipalities: A census tale

Araujo, Jevuks; Mattos, Enlinson

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20210023

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Revista Brasileira de Economia

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Artigos • Rev. Bras. Econ. 75 (04) • Oct-Dec 2021 • https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20210023 copy

Elasticity of population (mis)reporting in Brazilian municipalities: A census tale

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

This paper investigated population misreporting in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. We have firstly documented that there is a discontinuity in the population distribution, but only for census years. Secondly, we estimated the elasticity of population (mis)reporting regarding intergovernmental grant that ranges from 0.3 to 2.5. Lastly, we have found that not only political variables operate to help those municipalities to obtain more federal funds, but also fiscal autonomy and the proximity to local population office bureau.

Keywords
population reporting; census; Brazilian municipalities

Population bracket	Coefficient	Δ%
Up to 10.188	0.6	-
From 10.189 to 13.584	0.8	33%
From 13.585 to 16.980	1.0	25%
From 16.981 to 23.772	1.2	20%
From 23.773 to 30.564	1.4	17%
From 30.565 to 37.356	1.6	14%
From 37.357 to 44.148	1.8	13%
From 44.149 to 50.940	2.0	11%
From 50.941 to 61.128	2.2	10%
From 61.129 to 71.316	2.4	9%
From 71.317 to 81.504	2.6	8%
From 81.505 to 91.692	2.8	8%
From 91.693 to 101.880	3.0	7%
From 101.881 to 115.464	3.2	7%
From 115.465 to 129.048	3.4	6%
From 129.049 to 142.632	3.6	6%
From 142.633 to 156.216	3.8	6%
Over 156.216	4.0	5%

	Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum	Observations
2010 Population	34,253	200,793	805	11,000,000	5,564
MPF	9,544,209	16,900,000	1,280,942	549,000,000	5,487
MPF per capita	705	506	11	5,622	5,487
2000 Population	30,762	182,563	795	10,000,000	5,507
MPF	3,071,330	6,443,012	26	263,000,000	5,298
MPF per capita	252	654	0	45,919	5,298
1991 Population	32,688	187,341	751	9,600,000	4,491
MPF	321,165	707,141	711	41,600,000	4,005
MPF per capita	23	19	0	313	4,005

	Statistic McCrary
	1991	2000	2010	All years
Population thresholds 10,189	0.668	1.025	2.191	1.310
	(0.244)	(0.262)	(0.308)	(0.159)
13,585	0.663	1.508	1.661	1.308
	(0.240)	(0.325)	(0.341)	(0.191)
16,981	1.085	0.707	1.187	1.018
	(0.315)	(0.274)	(0.248)	(0.167)
Placebo threshold 3,000	0.221	0.176	0.219	0.036
	(0.380)	(0.423)	(0.282)	(0.210)
5,000	0.270	0.511	0.275	0.106
15,000	0.153	0.199	0.167	0.192
	(0.289)	(0.216)	(0.271)	(0.146)
25,000	0.030	0.459	0.023	0.163
	(0.242)	(0.378)	(0.220)	(0.156)

a) 2010		Thresholds
a) 2010	First (Notch at 10189)	Second (Notch at 13585)	Third (Notch at 16981)
Polynomial order (q)	3	3	3
Bin size	82	108	136
Range [R_L,R_U]	[8,887; 10,927]	[12,181; 14,125]	[15,893; 17,389]
# Municipalities (B)	111∗∗∗	38∗∗∗	35∗∗∗
s.e. (B)	12.36	10.06	7.21
% of respondents	42%	19.34%	28.40%
Average dr	231	92	241
b) 2000	First	Second	Third
Polynomial order (q)	3	3	3
Bin size	82	108	136
Range [R_L,R_U]	[8,959; 10,599]	[12,181; 13,801]	[16,301; 17,253]
# Municipalities (B)	44∗∗∗	27∗∗∗	17∗∗∗
s.e. (B)	8.91	5.57	5.49
% of respondents	17%	12.40%	23.04%
Average dr	80	81	109
c) 1991	First	Second	Third
Polynomial order (q)	3	3	3
Bin size	82	108	136
Range [R_L,R_U]	[Notch; 1,681]	[12,829; 14,017]	[16,029; 17,253]
# Municipalities (B)	36∗∗∗	20∗∗∗	24∗∗∗
s.e. (B)	8.610	6.94	4.43
% of respondents	-	19.60%	23.90%
Average dr	-	62	74

a) 2010		Thresholds
a) 2010	First (Notch at 10189)	Second (Notch at 13585)	Third (Notch at 16981)
β (Δ MPF per capita)	40	23	27
Elasticity (maximum)	25.74%	27.92%	8.63%
Elasticity (average)	2.5%	1.03%	1.19%
b) 2000	First	Second	Third
β (Δ MPF per capita)	15	-6	5
Elasticity (maximum)	18.21%	36.67%	6.40%
Elasticity (average)	0.77%	1.53%	0.62%
c) 1991	First	Second	Third
β (Δ MPF per capita)	-	1	0.40
Elasticity (maximum)	-	17.81%	5.71%
Elasticity (average)	-	0.80%	0.30%

	Statistic McCrary
	Estimate Population	Count Population
Population thresholds 10,189	0.086	1.243
	(0.076)	(0.199)
13,585	0.056	1.012
	(0.057)	(0.214)
16,981	0.128	0.838
	(0.077)	(0.202)
False population threshold 5,000	0.021	0.123
	(0.077)	(0.151)
15,000	0.020	0.255
	(0.062)	(0.224)

Stats	Distance (in km)	Autonomy (in per capita tax revenue)	Autonomy (in % of the budget)
Mean	47	71	4.8%
p50	36	43	3.6%
Min	0	5	0.5%
Max	393	1,291	47.5%
p10	18	18	1.8%
p25	25	28	2.5%
p75	55	73	5.6%
p90	88	129	8.4%
Sd	38.44	105.00	0.04
N	839	750	750

a) 2010 Polynomial order (q)	3	4	2	3	4
Bin size	82	82	82	92	52
Range [R_L,R_U]	[8,887; 10,927]	[8,887; 10,927]	[8,887; 10,927]	[8,809; 10,927]	[8,837; 10,969]
# Municipalities (B)	111∗∗∗	96∗∗∗	111∗∗∗	110∗∗∗	94∗∗∗
s.e. (B)	12.36	16.64	12.34	10.8	12.38
% of respondents	42%	33%	40%	39%	36%
Average dr	231	260	248	226	215
Elasticity (max)	25.74%	25.74%	25.74%	28.79%	26.80%
Elasticity (average)	2.5%	2.8%	2.78%	2.5%	2.4%
b) 2000 Polynomial order (q)	3	4	2	3	4
Bin size	82	82	82	92	52
Range [R_L,R_U]	[8,959; 10,599]	[8,959; 10,599]	[8,959; 10,599]	[8,959; 10,599]	[9,305; 10,501]
# Municipalities (B)	44∗∗∗	38∗∗∗	44∗∗∗	36∗∗∗	27∗∗∗
s.e. (B)	8.91	10.13	9.03	9.9	8.45
% of respondents	17%	14%	17.4%	12.5%	15%
Average dr	80	106	90	85	76
Elasticity (max)	18.21%	18.21%	18.21%	23.3%	9%
Elasticity (average)	0.77%	0.99%	0.88%	0.80%	0.42%
1991 Polynomial order (q)	3	4	2	3	4
Bin size	82	82	82	92	52
Range [R_L,R_U]	[Notch; 1,681]	[Notch; 1,681]	[Notch; 1,681]	[Notch; 10,741]	[Notch; 10,501]
# Municipalities (B)	36∗∗∗	33∗∗∗	39∗∗∗	31∗∗∗	33∗∗∗
s.e. (B)	8.610	9.09	9.52	8.85	7.21
% of respondents	-	-	-	-	-
Average dr	-	-	-	-	-
Elasticity (max)	-	-	-	-	-
Elasticity (average)	-	-	-	-	-

Variables	Coefficients - 2010			Coefficients - 2000
Variables	dF/dx	dF/dx	dF/dx	dF/dx
PoliticalVariables Share	0.380^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.	-	0.429	0.189^∗∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.
Governor	-0.119^∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.	-	-0.123	0.082
Mayor	-0.100	-	0.063	0.085
Deputy Dominant	0.045	-	0.069	0.400
InteractionsVariables Governor*Mayor	0.092	-	0.037	-0.096
Governor*Deputy Dominant	-0.002	-	-0.055	-0.283^∗∗∗
Mayor*Deputy Dominant	-0.128	-	-0.168	-0.328^∗∗∗
GovernorMayorDeputy Dominant	0.199	-	0.227	0.446^∗∗∗
Geographic and FiscalVariables Distance	-	-0.218^∗∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.	-0.162^∗∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.	-
Autonomy	-	-0.051^∗∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.	-0.058^∗∗ ∗∗∗,∗∗,∗ significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.	-
Dummy Distance	-	0.031	0.040	-
Dummy Autonomy	-	0.012	0.043	-
Interactions Dummies	-	0.085	0.078	-
ControlVariables Gini Index	0.954	0.705	0.806
Infant Mortality Rate	0.004	0.005	0.005	0.004
Population above 65 years	0.0001			-
Illiteracy Rate		0.007	0.008
Per Capita Income	-	0.003	0.005
Unemployment Rate			0.003	0.009
Urban Population Economically Active Population	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001
Dependency Ratio Fixed Effects for States	No	Yes	No	No
Observations	839	750	750	682

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