The processes of land use change and land cover arouse great concern in understanding and better planning to avoid impacts such as loss of biodiversity, soil erosion and contamination of water resources. This paper proposes to estimate the sediment yield scenarios in the watershed of the creek Guabirobas, located in the municipality of São Carlos, SP. For this, the spatial simulation model CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small Extent region) was used, with the goal of generating scenarios for the year 2025 of the study area. Subsequently, the sediment yield was estimated for these scenarios with the help of the simulation model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Two scenarios were simulated: expansion of sugarcane and orange. Through the different demands for areas inserting in CLUE-S, it was possible to generate scenarios in the watershed of the creek Guabirobas for the year 2025 and, with the use of SWAT to estimate sediment yield under different land uses and to verify that the crop of sugarcane varieties RB72-454, CTC6 and CTC11 and hybrid of Eucalyptus grandis and Eucalyptus urophylla were more significant.
changing landscape; agriculture; modeling; simulation; soil erosion
