Higher mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in socially vulnerable areas in Belo Horizonte: implications for vaccine prioritization

ABSTRACT:

Objective:

To assess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic according to social vulnerability by areas of Belo Horizonte (BH), aiming at strategies for vaccination.

Methods:

Ecological study with mortality analysis according to census tracts classified by the Health Vulnerability Index, a composite indicator that includes socioeconomic and sanitation variables. Deaths by natural causes and by COVID-19 were obtained from the “Mortality Information System”, between the 10^th and 43^rd epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2020. Excess mortality was calculated in a time series model, considering observed and expected deaths per EW, between 2015 and 2019, per census tracts. Mortality rates (MR) were calculated and age-standardized using population estimates from the 2010 census, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Results:

Excess mortality in BH was 16.1% (n = 1,524): 11, 18.8 and 17.3% in low, intermediate and high vulnerability areas, respectively. The differences between observed and expected age-standardized MR by natural causes were equal to 59/100,000 inhabitants in BH, increasing from 31 to 77 and 95/100,000 inhabitants in the areas of low, intermediate and high vulnerability, respectively. There was an aging gradient in MR by COVID-19, ranging from 4 to 611/100,000 inhabitants among individuals aged 20-39 years and 75+ years. The COVID-19 MR per 100,000 older adults (60+ years) was 292 in BH, increasing from 179 to 354 and 476, in low, intermediate and high vulnerability areas, respectively.

Conclusion:

Inequalities in mortality, particularly among older adults, combined with the limited supply of doses, demonstrate the importance of prioritizing socially vulnerable areas during vaccination against COVID-19.

Keywords:
Mortality; Aged; Coronavirus infections; Social inequity; Vaccines