Low COVID-19 vaccination coverage and high COVID-19 mortality rates in Brazilian elderly

Baixa cobertura da vacina contra COVID-19 e altas taxas de mortalidade por COVID-19 em idosos no Brasil

ABSTRACT

Objective:

To investigate the relation between COVID-19 vaccine coverage and COVID-19-related mortality by age groups in Brazil in 2021.

Methods:

Secondary data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination coverage were retrieved to investigate COVID-19 mortality rate (MR) evolution as the vaccination against COVID-19 advanced in Brazil in 2021. Poisson regression with adjustment for age and Brazilian states was used to calculate the MR.

Results:

By mid-April 2021, MR increased 2 – 3 times compared with the already high level in January for people aged 60 years or older, reaching the highest epidemic level of 5 – 15 per 100,000 inhabitants in this age group. Despite the following decline trend, by the end of May, the MR level was still about 50% and 80% higher for the age groups of 40 – 79 years and 80 years or older. The coverage concerning the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine reached 80% for people aged 60 – 69 years and exceeded 95% for those aged 70 years or older, but the second dose was only given to 26, 76 and 64% of the age groups of 60 – 69, 70 – 79, and 80 years or older, respectively. The age-standardized average MR over the study period was the highest in northern Brazilian states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Acre, and Roraima (range 6-8.4 per 100,000 inhabitants).

Conclusions:

COVID-19 vaccination coverage was below the level necessary to protect Brazilians from rising MR between January and May 2021. Urgent measures are necessary to increase the vaccine supply and the adherence to non-pharmacological protective measures.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Mortality; Vaccination coverage; Statistics; Brazil