Does fertility in Brazil and Argentina converge? A focus on inequalities

Abstract

The idea of trend in fertility levels towards convergence in Latin America and the Caribbean is widely accepted, both in academic studies and in the underlying assumptions of the population projections in the region. However, little is known about the demographic convergence processes when fertility is decomposed according to variables of social differentiation. The aim of this article is to compare the convergence hypothesis in Argentina and Brazil from 1970 to 2010 through the analysis of the evolution of the Total Fertility Rate by statistical regions, educational levels and socio-occupational categories. Data come from national population censuses and variables were harmonized to allow comparisons between both countries. A variation of the Brass P/F ratio method and the Gompertz relational model was used to estimate fertility levels and measures of convergence was calculated to assess the hypothesis of convergence according to the categories of analysis. The results show evidence of convergence in fertility during the period of study, especially in Brazil, although some cycles of divergence and marked differences between the two countries were observed, particularly those arising from the position in the occupational structure.

Keywords
Fertility; Demographic convergence; Social structure; Argentine; Brazil