Age structure, window of opportunity, and formal employment in the Northern Semiarid: an alternative regional analysis

Abstract

This article aims to analyze changes in age structure, the evolution, and the utilization of the demographic window, using the Formal Employment Index (IEF) as a proxy. The study compares the Northern Semiarid region with the Southern Semiarid and the rest of the country over the period from 1970 to 2022. To achieve this, data from the Demographic Census and the Annual Report on Social Information (RAIS) were employed. The findings indicate that, despite historically distinct patterns, the age structure of the three regions has converged. The demographic window in the Northern Semiarid region emerged around 2005, approximately fifteen years after it had been established outside the semiarid zones. The evolution of the IEF reveals: i) the demographic “bonus” was moderately realized until 2014, after which it ceased to be effectively leveraged; ii) the persistence of interregional disparities: in 2000, the IEF outside the semiarid regions was three times higher than that of the Northern Semiarid (26.46% vs. 8.79%). By 2021, although the gap had narrowed, it remained significant (37.81% vs. 17.11%). Therefore, the results do not refute the hypothesis that changes in age structure - particularly the increase in the working-age population - interact with and amplify the effects of economic and social policies

Keywords:
Economic demography; Demographic transition; Demographic dividends; Regional inequalities; Semiarid areas