Population mobility based on data from the Cadastro Único: potential and timeliness for demographic studies

Abstract

One of the main challenges in studying population movements is the lack of timely data with adequate population coverage. The demographic census, although a key reference, is conducted infrequently, making it more suitable for historical analyses than for studies that can provide quicker inferences for public policies. As an alternative, the use of administrative databases has emerged to address these challenges, as has survey research, despite its higher cost. The objective of this article is to present the Cadastro Único (CadÚnico) for Social Programs of the Federal Government as a source for studies on population movements, particularly among the low-income population, highlighting its timeliness, the diversity of personal, family, and household information, and its longitudinal dimension, which allows for the observation of changes over time. Another strength of the database is its wide geographic coverage, which is essential for studies on immigration, internal migration, and intra-urban movements. The article presents a typology of population movements based on CadÚnico, as well as the methodology developed for data processing. Applied to the population registered in Minas Gerais between 2012 and 2022, the preliminary results indicate the predominance of one-step migration and reveal some reversals in the trend of urban-to-rural flows during certain periods, contrary to the historical pattern. This approach provides new perspectives for demographic analysis and public policy.

Keywords:
Migration; Population mobility typology; Cadastro Único