Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil

D’Antona, Álvaro de Oliveira; Côrtes, Julia Correa; Alves, José Diego Gobbo; Pelegrina, Guilherme; Duarte, Leonardo Tomazeli

doi:10.20947/S0102-3098a0294

person Álvaro de Oliveira D’Antona

Álvaro de Oliveira D’Antona is a Full Professor at the School of Applied Sciences of the University of Campinas (UNICAMP). He teaches in the Interdisciplinary Master’s Program in Human and Social Sciences and in the PhD Program in Environment and Society (UNICAMP). He is also a collaborator at the Elza Berquó Center for Population Studies (NEPO-UNICAMP) and in the Graduate Program in Demography (UNICAMP). · conceptualization · data curation · acquisition of funding · methodology · supervision · visualization · writing - original draft · writing - review & editing

schoolFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FCA/Unicamp), Campinas-SP, Brazil (alvaro.dantona@fca.unicamp.br).

0000-0003-1710-6277

person Julia Correa Côrtes

Julia Correa Côrtes holds a PhD and a Master’s degree in Demography from the Institute of Philosophy and Human Sciences at the University of Campinas (IFCH/UNICAMP), with a research residency during her PhD at the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida (LATAM/UF). She conducted postdoctoral research (PNPD/CAPES) in the Graduate Program in Environment and Society (IFCH/NEPAM/UNICAMP). She holds a degree in Agronomic Engineering from the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture at the University of São Paulo (ESALQ/USP). · conceptualization · data curation · formal analysis · methodology · writing - original draft

schoolFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FCA/Unicamp), Campinas-SP, Brazil (jucortes@gmail.com).

0000-0003-1981-8200

person José Diego Gobbo Alves

José Diego Gobbo Alves holds a PhD from the Graduate Program in Environment and Society at the University of Campinas (UNICAMP), a Master’s degree in Human and Social Sciences from UNICAMP, and a Bachelor’s and Teaching degree in Geography from São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP, Rio Claro). · data curation · methodology · visualization · writing - original draft

schoolFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FCA/Unicamp), Campinas-SP, Brazil (jdgobboalves@gmail.com).

0000-0002-4185-1579

person Guilherme Pelegrina

Guilherme Dean Pelegrinais an Assistant Professor at Mackenzie Presbyterian University. He completed postdoctoral research at the University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and at Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne (France). Through a co-tutelle agreement, he holds a PhD in Electrical Engineering from the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Campinas and a PhD in Applied Mathematics from Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds a Master’s and a Bachelor›s degree in Production Engineering from the School of Applied Sciences (UNICAMP). · formal analysis · methodology · writing - original draft

schoolUniversidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie - Escola de Engenharia, São Paulo-SP, Brazil (guilherme.pelegrina@mackenzie.br).

0000-0001-7301-6167

person Leonardo Tomazeli Duarte

Leonardo Tomazeli Duarte holds a Livre-Docência from the University of Campinas (UNICAMP). He completed postdoctoral research at Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier (France) and earned his PhD from the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble (Grenoble INP - Université Grenoble Alpes, France) in the field of “Signal, Image, Speech, Telecommunications.” He also holds a Master’s and a Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from UNICAMP (2023). · formal analysis · acquisition of funding · methodology · writing - original draft

schoolFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FCA/Unicamp), Campinas-SP, Brazil (ltduarte@unicamp.br).

0000-0003-0290-0080

personÁlvaro de Oliveira D’AntonaFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas (FCA) - Campus II da UNICAMP Rua Pedro Zaccaria, 1300 13484-350 - Limeira-SP, Brazil

personJulia Corrêa CôrtesFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas (FCA) - Campus II da UNICAMP Rua Pedro Zaccaria, 1300 13484-350 - Limeira-SP, Brazil

personJosé Diego Gobbo AlvesFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas (FCA) - Campus II da UNICAMP Rua Pedro Zaccaria, 1300 13484-350 - Limeira-SP, Brazil

personGuilherme PelegrinaUniversidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie - Escola de Engenharia Rua da Consolação, 930, Bairro Consolação 01302-907 - São Paulo-SP, Brazil

personLeonardo Tomazeli DuarteFaculdade de Ciências Aplicadas (FCA) - Campus II da UNICAMP Rua Pedro Zaccaria, 1300 13484-350 - Limeira-SP, Brazil

Conflicts of interest:

The authors certify that they have no personal, commercial, academic, political or financial interest that represents a conflict of interest in relation to the manuscript.

Editor:

Bernardo Lanza Queiroz

Theme	Variable (v)		Description
Theme	#	Name
Area and population size	1	Cells	Total number of cells in the Statistical Grid corresponding to the Extractive Reserve.
Area and population size	2	Resident population	Total number of people living in the ER.
Concentration	3	Occupied cells	Number of cells with resident population greater than zero.
	4	Proportion of occupied cells	Ratio between the number of occupied cells (v3) and the total number of cells in the ER (v1). Number between 0 and 1.
	5	Gini index - all cells	Sparsity measure of the spatial distribution of the population, computed based on all cells, including those without population. Number between 0 and 1.
	6	Gini index - occupied cells	Sparsity measure of the spatial distribution of the population, computed only with cells with resident population greater than zero.
	7	Population density	Ratio between Resident Population (v2) and the total number of cells in the Extractive Reserve (v1). Number between 0 and 1.
Dispersion	8	Patches of occupied cells	Number of cells patches with population greater than zero.
Dispersion	9	Median patch size of occupied cells	Median size of the patches of occupied cells.
Occupation shape	10	Mean shape index of occupied cells	Measure of the regularity of the shape of the patches. Number equal to or greater than 1. The higher the MSI, the more irregular the shape of each patch.
	11	Standard deviational ellipse - perimeter	Perimeter of the ellipse that aggregates 63% of the occupied cells, weighted by the resident population in each cell. The larger the perimeter, the greater the occupation (ArcGIS, Standard Deviational Ellipse - SDE).
	12	Standard deviational ellipse - area	Area of the SDE that aggregates 63% of the occupied cells, weighted by the resident population in each cell.
	13	Standard deviational ellipse - eccentricity	Ratio between the two axes of the SDE that aggregates 63% of the occupied cells, weighted by the resident population in each cell.

Theme	Variable (v)		Description
Theme	#	Name
Population	14	Surrounding population	Resident population in the 10km buffer around the ER.
Forest cover	15	Surrounding forest cover	Percentage of the 10km buffer around the ER, with forest cover.
Protected areas	16	Surrounding protected areas	Percentage of the 10km buffer around the ER occupied by some type of protected area.
Urban areas	17	Straight distance to nearest urban patch.	Straight distance from the ER to the nearest urban patch (ArcGIS, Near Dist.).
Urban areas	18	Average distance of the five closest urban patches.	Average distance from the ER to the five closest urban patches.

Theme	Variable (v)		Description
Theme	#	Name
Forest fragmentation	19	Forest patches	Number of forest patches
	20	Density of forest patches	Number of forest fragments per 100 hectares
	21	Forest largest patch	Size of largest forest fragment in relation to the size of the Extractive Reserve
	22	Forest patches mean size	Mean of forest fragment size
Forest cover	23	Forest	Percentage of the Extractive Reserve with forest cover
Forest cover	24	Deforestation	Percentage of the Extractive Reserve deforested

Variables		Pearson correlation coefficient (P-value)
		19	20	21	22	23	24
		Number of forest patches	Density of forest patches	Forest largest patch	Forest patch area mean	Forest (%)	Deforestation (%)
1	Cells	0.485 (0.006**)	-0.334 (0.066*)	0.229 (0.216)	0.318 (0.082*)	0.323 (0.077*)	-0.190 (0.307)
2	Resident population	0.769 (0.000**)	0.098 (0.600)	-0.079 (0.671)	-0.252 (0.171)	-0.055 (0.768)	0.108 (0.565)
3	Occupied cells	0.653 (0.000**)	-0.053 (0.778)	-0.076 (0.684)	-0.210 (0.256)	-0.119 (0.524)	0.157 (0.400)
4	Proportion of occupied cells	-0.027 (0.886)	0.886 (0.000**)	-0.544 (0.002**)	-0.262 (0.155)	-0.705 (0.000**)	0.396 (0.027**)
5	Gini index - all cells	0.028 (0.881)	-0.641 (0.000**)	0.477 (0.007**)	0.267 (0.147)	0.617 (0.000**)	-0.539 (0.002**)
6	Gini index - occupied cells	0.124 (0.507)	0.349 (0.054*)	-0.191 (0.305)	-0.118 (0.526)	-0.150 (0.421)	-0.111 (0.552)
7	Population density	-0.125 (0.504)	0.895 (0.000**)	-0.173 (0.353)	-0.149 (0.425)	-0.467 (0.008**)	-0.025 (0.893)
8	Patches of occupied cells	0.525 (0.002**)	-0.097 (0.603)	0.022 (0.909)	-0.129 (0.488)	0.156 (0.403)	-0.016 (0.932)
9	Median patch size of occupied cells	0.532 (0.002**)	0.477 (0.007**)	-0.391 (0.030**)	-0.259 (0.159)	-0.430 (0.016**)	0.142 (0.447)
10	Mean shape index of occupied cells	0.324 (0.075*)	0.351 (0.053*)	-0.369 (0.041**)	-0.356 (0.050**)	-0.364 (0.044**)	0.602 (0.000**)
11	SDE - perimeter	0.254 (0.169)	-0.345 (0.058*)	0.205 (0.270)	0.142 (0.446)	0.349 (0.055*)	-0.160 (0.392)
12	SDE - area	0.501 (0.004**)	-0.234 (0.205)	0.135 (0.468)	-0.021 (0.911)	0.176 (0.345)	-0.123 (0.510)
13	SDE - eccentricity	0,561 (0.001**)	0,080 (0,669)	-0,106 (0,572)	-0,353 (0,051*)	-0,223 (0,227)	0,235 (0,202)
14	Surrounding population	0.302 (0.099*)	0.436 (0.014**)	-0.084 (0.655)	-0.213 (0.251)	-0.347 (0.056*)	-0.009 (0.960)
15	Surrounding forest cover	-0.430 (0.016**)	-0.595 (0.000**)	0.407 (0.023**)	0.300 (0.102)	0.742 (0.000**)	-0.131 (0.482)
16	Surrounding protected areas	-0.301 (0.100)	-0.270 (0.142)	0.247 (0.181)	0.814 (0.000**)	0.324 (0.075*)	-0.235 (0.203)
17	Distance to nearest urban patch	-0.386 (0.032**)	-0.351 (0.053*)	0.280 (0.127)	0.506 (0.004**)	0.362 (0.045**)	-0.209 (0.258)
18	Distance of the five closest urban patches	-0.228 (0.217)	-0.354 (0.051*)	0.287 (0.118)	0.197 (0.289)	0.484 (0.006**)	-0.139 (0.456)

Model ( $R_{v 23}^{2}$ )	Measures	Predictor variables
		v2	v5	v8	v9	v10	v15
		Resident population	Gini index - all cells	Patches of occupied cells	Median patch size of occupied cells	Mean shape index of occupied cells	Surrounding forest cover
M1 (0.600)	Φ	-	0.340	0.022	0.155	0.083	-
M1 (0.600)	P-value	-	0.000**	0.196	0.002**	0.016**	-
M2 (0.747)	Φ	-	0.227	0.038	0.082	0.056	0.344
M2 (0.747)	P-value	-	0.002**	0.035**	0.174	0.077*	0.001**
M3 (0.268)	Φ	0.023	-	0.015	0.151	0.079	-
M3 (0.268)	P-value	0.266	-	0.967	0.048**	0.269	-
M4 (0.681)	Φ	0.040	-	0.022	0.086	0.059	0.474
M4 (0.681)	P-value	0.182	-	0.912	0.051*	0.522	0.198

Model ( $R_{v 19}^{2}$ )	Measures	Predictor variables
		v2	v5	v8	v9	v10	v15
		Resident population	Gini index - all cells	Patches of occupied cells	Median Patch Siz4e of occupied cells	Mean shape index of occupied cells	Surrounding forest cover
M1 (0.660)	Φ	-	0.051	0.293	0.210	0.106	-
M1 (0.660)	P-value	-	0.020**	0.000**	0.009**	0.021**	-
M2 (0.724)	Φ	-	0.080	0.268	0.156	0.110	0.110
M2 (0.724)	P-value	-	0.002**	0.000**	0.265	0.003**	0.023**
M3 (0.672)	Φ	0.322	-	0.170	0.139	0.041	-
M3 (0.672)	P-value	0.012**	-	0.034**	0.111	0.623	-
M4 (0.676)	Φ	0.301	-	0.163	0.117	0.035	0.060
M4 (0.676)	P-value	0.806	-	0.557	0.877	0.912	0.995

[TFN1] Source: Variables defined and calculated by the authors.

Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil

Distribuição espacial da população e cobertura florestal em reservas extrativistas no bioma amazônico, Brasil

Distribución espacial de la población y cobertura forestal en reservas extractivas en el bioma amazónico, Brasil

Abstract