Notes on estimation of net migration of Brazilians in Brazil from demographic census

Abstract

This paper adapts the residual method for estimating the contribution of net migration to the total variation in the stock of Brazilians on national territory. To this end, data from the 2000 and 2010 demographic censuses were used to capture the direct effect of Brazilian migration and the indirect effect on the generation of native Brazilians, both from Brazilian and foreign mothers. The results show that international migration had little impact on the variation in the stock of Brazilians during the studied period, consistent with the findings of other studies. At the same time, it points to the application of the method to the period between 2010 and 2022, when data from the 2022 Demographic Census on place of birth will be available, thus allowing for a more precise analysis of the migration balance of Brazilians and the impact of migration on the Brazilian population.

Keywords:
Residual estimation; Indirect techniques; Migration of Brazilians; International migration