Model migration schedules: boundaries and applications

Abstract

Migration is a highly selective demographic event by age as well as across age groups. The need to estimate migration patterns as input for demographic projections motivated Andrei Rogers and his collaborators to develop what became known as the Rogers-Castro model, or migration model functions. This paper aims to critically discuss the model as well as its limits and potential application in demographic studies. Despite describing migratory patterns by age reasonably well, the difficulty of estimation and the instability of the parameters become obstacles to the application of the model. Despite its limitations, it’s analytical and projection advantages have not yet been surpassed, thus remaining a good predictor of the migration function pattern in situations of scarce or unreliable data. Finally, the Rogers-Castro model performs well for describing domestic migration on a national scale from the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. Other studies, on smaller territorial units or over time, with alternative sources, are discussed as potential applications of the model in demographic studies.

Key words
Rogers-Castro model; Age profile of migration; Brazil