Spatial Modeling of Intense Rainfall in the State of Paraíba

Abstract

Brazilian Northeast (NEB) presents, as a striking feature, the irregularity in rainfall accumulations, which is due to several factors, such as environmental characteristics and atmospheric systems. Adequate statistical analyzes are necessary to have knowledge of the return levels of precipitation in a region and are very important to assist actions to prevent natural disasters caused by maximum rainfall. The objective of this research was to present the levels of return of maximum daily rainfall in the entire state of Paraíba, which is located in the NEB. The dataset consisted of 238 rainfall stations, covering the period from 1994 to 2020. In the statistical modeling, the Gumbel distribution was adjusted using the maximum likelihood method. The results indicated that Sertão Paraibano presented the highest estimated PMD in the months from January to March, with volumes greater than 75 mm. Mata Paraibana presented the highest PMD estimates in the months from April to June, with values greater than 125 mm in the month of June in coastal regions. The information obtained on the levels of return of maximum daily rainfall is relevant and can be of great help in the implementation of public policies, aimed at reducing the impacts caused by intense rains.

Keywords
floods; Gumbel Distribution; Northeast of Brazil