Wandering decarbonization: the BRIC countries as conservative climate powers

Viola, Eduardo; Basso, Larissa

doi:10.1590/0034-7329201600101

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Articles • Rev. bras. polít. int. 59 (01) • 2016 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329201600101 linkcopy

Wandering decarbonization: the BRIC countries as conservative climate powers

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

This article discusses the role of China, Russia, India and Brazil in the climate regime. It describes the trajectory of their emissions, of their domestic policies and of their international commitments, and argues that, despite their responsibility in causing the problem, they have been conservative forces in the climate regime.

Keywords:
BRIC countries; decabornization; climate change; international politics; international system.

	1990 including LULUCF	1990 excluding LULUCF	1990 % of world emissions with LULUCF	2012 including LULUCF	2012 excluding LULUCF	2012 % of world emissions with LULUCF	δ 1990-2012 including LULUCF	δ 1990-2012 excluding LULUCF
China	3,218.45	3,320.97	9.48%	10,684.29	10,975.50	22.44%	231.97%	230.49%
Russia	2,776.78	2,776.78	8.18%	2,254.47	2,322.22	4.73%	-18.81%	-16.37%
India	1,212.02	1,239.06	3.57%	2,887.08	3,013.77	6.06%	140.18%	143.23%
Brazil	1,606.59	565.09	4.73%	1,823.15	1,012.55	3.83%	13.48%	79.18%
World	33,937.21	30,423.75		47,598.55	44,815.54		40.25%	47.30%

	1990	2000	2010	2012	Variation 1990-2012 (%)
China no LULUCF	3,320.97	4,701.65	9,764.68	10,975.50	230.49%
China with LULUCF	3,218.45	4,371.05	9,473.05	10,684.29	231.97%
Russia no LULUCF	2,776.78	2,060.02	2,230.03	2,322.22	-16.37%
Russia with LULUCF	2,776.78	2,263.53	2,090.23	2,254.47	-18.81%
India no LULUCF	1,239.06	1,767.28	2,772.48	3,013.77	143.23%
India with LULUCF	1,212.02	1,720.19	2,647.93	2,887.08	138.20%
Brazil no LULUCF	565.09	733.48	950.31	1,012.55	79.18%
Brazil with LULUCF	1,606.59	1,778.98	1,773.77	1,823.15	13.48%

	COP 15 - Copenhagen	COP 21 - Paris
China	By 2020 (baseline = 2005): (i) to reduce the carbon intensity of its GDP by 40-45%; (ii) to raise the level of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15%; (iii) to increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares, raising forest stock by 1.3 billion cubic meters.	By 2030 (baseline = 2005): (i) to peak emissions; (ii) to reduce carbon intensity of its GDP by 60-65%; (iii) to increase the share of non fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20%; (iv) to increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters.
Russia	By 2020 (baseline = 1990): to reduce 15-25% of its emissions, the range depending on (i) "appropriate accounting of the potential of Russia's forestry in frame of contribution in meeting the obligations of the anthropogenic emissions reduction" and (ii) "undertaking by all major emitters the legally binding obligations to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions".	Between 2020 and 2030 (baseline = 1990): to reduce 25-30% of its emissions, "subject to the maximum possible account of absorbing capacity of forests".
India	By 2020 (baseline = 2005): to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP between 20-25%. In order to achieve the target: (i) increase fossil fuel standards by 2011; (ii) adopt building energy codes by 2012; (iii) increase forest cover to sequester an amount equivalent to 10% of its annual carbon emissions; and (iv) increase electricity from wind, solar and small hydropower from 8 to 20%.	By 2030 (baseline = 2005): (i) to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35%; (ii) to achieve about 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources, "with the help of transfer of technology and low cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF)"; and (iii) to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent through additional forest and tree cover.
Brazil	By 2020: (i) to reduce its emissions growth by 36-39%, baseline = business as usual scenarios; and (ii) to cut 80% of deforestation, baseline = 2005.	By 2025-2030 (baseline = 2005): to reduce emissions by 37-43% (respectively); (i) increasing the share of sustainable biofuels to approximately 18%; (ii) achieving 45% of renewables in the energy mix; expanding wind, solar and biomass to 28-33% of the matrix and 23% of the electricity production; increasing energy efficiency in electricity by 10%; (iii) zero illegal deforestation; (iv) restoring 15 million hectares of pastureland and enhancing 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems; (v) promoting new standards of clean technology and further enhance energy efficiency measures and low carbon infrastructure in the industrial sector; (vi) promoting efficiency measures in the transportation sector, and improving infrastructure for transport and public transportation in urban areas.

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Centro de Estudos Globais da Universidade de Brasília Centro de Estudos Globais, Instituto de Relações Internacionais, Universidade de Brasília, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, Brasília - DF - 70910-900 - Brazil, Tel.: + 55 61 31073651 - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: rbpi@unb.br

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[TFN1] Source: Authors' own elaboration, based on data from World Resources Institute, CAIT - Climate Data Explorer (database). <http://cait.wri.org/>. Accessed December 15, 2015.