Abstract in English:Abstract The war in Ukraine has had a marked economic impact. However, since Russia is a net producer of important commodities, the impact of sanctions on its economy was less than expected. But what would happen if there was a war involving a country that was a net importer of commodities? In the case of a possible China-US conflict over Taiwan, the impact on the world economy would be different, with a deeper recession around the world, but the impact on the Brazilian economy would still be positive on account of the possibility that would remain of agricultural exports to China.
Abstract in English:Abstract This article seeks to analyze how norms and procedures created in International Organizations spread to member states. More specifically, the analysis focuses on how changes in the training architecture for UN peace operations, driven by the Brahimi report, caused institutional and procedural changes on the administrative, political and military spheres in Brazil. Combining official documents and analytical literature, through process tracing, we find that the main causal mechanism observed was emulation, given Brazil’s desire to adapt to use the capacity building as a tool for international action.
Abstract in English:Abstract Although we have a vast understanding of the causes and institutional impacts of impeachments, we know little about their policy outcomes. As such events occur during crises, new incumbents are expected to promote policy reforms. To identify how they influence foreign policy, I applied a most-different-system design to compare the cases of Lugo in Paraguay (2012) and Rousseff in Brazil (2016). Internally, impeachments politicize foreign policy, linking the external agenda to domestic politics. Externally, they may restrict foreign policy alternatives, depending on political actors’ perceptions of process legitimacy, ideological proximity, and state resources. I found that politicization after impeachments does not necessarily bring decision-making decentralization. Instead, actors capture the foreign policy agenda for political purposes.
Abstract in English:Abstract We argue that the war in Ukraine and the instrument of sanctions should be framed into a long trend – from globalization and the international imbalances it generates, to the subsequent “de-globalizing” movement –, which had a paramount role in the preparation for the war. The protagonists of the conflict are more properly identified with the two blocs of states whose economies are anchored either to the United States or China, respectively the major debtor and the major creditor of the world. In this context, the distinction between sanctions and protectionist policies is increasingly blurred, while both are growingly intertwined with defence policy.
Abstract in English:Abstract The effects of climate change over the Arctic region have attracted manifold interests in the last decades from several state and non-state actors. Due to a flawed institutional capacity to promote a multi-stakeholder approach in Arctic affairs, the main governance mechanism over the Arctic – the Arctic Council – is incapable of dealing with related geopolitical tensions. Based on document analysis and specialized literature, we discuss the implications and challenges of Brazil-China cooperation over Arctic affairs. We argue that both countries have multi-domain interests over the region (science, economics, environment, among others) and that such a cooperation can serve those interests. We also highlight that engaging in such an initiative can create strategic synergies for both countries and contribute to their common agenda of geopolitical rebalance of international order. Finally, we argue that such a cooperation is capable of stimulating an institutional reform of the Arctic Council towards a multi-stakeholder approach in the governance, as well as advance community interests of this polar area.
Abstract in English:Abstract The domestic politics of international status unfolds beyond its foreign policy implications. Sometimes actors engage in status politics to pursue their domestic political aims. Looking at the opposition to Pinochet in Chile, I introduce the notion of the democratic status narrative, which emerged as a means of contesting authoritarianism. The narrative first entered the public sphere during the 1978 Beagle Channel crisis in the pages of opposition magazines, rarely consulted by scholars of international affairs. As it grew more prevalent, it became a central element in the formation of the Concertación coalition’s influential foreign policy elite, shaping post-authoritarian foreign policy.