Impact of climate change on the flow of the Doce River basin

Impacto das mudanças climáticas na vazão na bacia do Rio Doce

ABSTRACT

This study verified the impacts of climate change on river flow in the Doce River basin, using the MGB and RCM Eta projections. Despite the differences between the trends, the basin will certainly be affected by the reduction of precipitation and the increase in temperature between 2025 and 2099. Results show considerable reductions in the trends of the average flow of the basin. In 2025 - 2049, these reduction trends are greater than 64% in 50% of river reaches, according to Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5. In 2050 - 2074, the flows simulated with Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 achieve reductions greater than 84% and 77%, respectively, in 50% of the simulated reaches. In 2075 - 2099 the reduction trends of Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 are greater than 91% and 79%, respectively, in 50% of the drainage reaches.

Keywords:
Climate change; RCM Eta; Hydrological modeling; Doce River basin