Tendência temporal dos índices de seca e de aridez no semiárido pernambucano para determinação da susceptibilidade a desertificação

Silva, Fabianny Joanny Bezerra Cabral da; Azevedo, José Roberto Gonçalves de

Fabianny Joanny Bezerra Cabral da Silva

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brasil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8801-0913

José Roberto Gonçalves de Azevedo

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brasil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2662-7341

E-mails: fjoanny@gmail.com (FJBCS), robdosport@hotmail.com (JRGA)

Authors contributions: Fabianny Joanny Bezerra Cabral da Silva: Contributed to the idealization, analysis of the data, development of the study and writing of the manuscript. José Roberto Gonçalves de Azevedo: Contributed intellectually to the writing of the manuscript and interpretation of the data.

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Figure 1
Location of the Brígida river basin.

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Table 1
RAI categories.

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Table 2
SPI categories.

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Table 3
PDSI categories.

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Table 4
MIA categories.

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Table 5
AI categories.

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Table 6
Classification of the

A I_{A S D}

proposed by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (1979)United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization – UNESCO. (1979). Map of the world distribution of arid regions: explanatory note (MAB Technical Notes, No. 7, pp. 1-53). Paris: UNESCO. and adapted by the CONAMA Resolution.

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Table 7
Comparison analysis of the drought and aridity indices.

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Table 8
Climate variables of Cabrobó Station (82886), according normal climatological standard (1961-1990).

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Table 9
Climate variables of Cabrobó Station (82886), according provisional normal (1991-2016).

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Table 10
RAI for the 38 pluviometric stations of the Brígida river basin in the period 1961 to 2016.

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Table 11
RAI climate trend analysis in TREND software for the periods 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2016 for the 38 rainfall stations located in the Brígida river basin.

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Table 12
SPI for the 38 pluviometric stations of the Brígida river basin in the period 1961 to 2016.

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Table 13
SPI climate trend analysis in TREND software in the period 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2016 for the 38 rainfall stations located in the Brígida river basin.

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Table 14
PDSI for the 38 pluviometric stations of the Brígida river basin in the period 1961 to 2016.

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Table 15
PDSI climate trend analysis in TREND software in the period 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2016 for the 38 rainfall stations located in the Brígida river basin.

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Table 16
MIA for the 38 pluviometric stations of the Brígida river basin in the period 1961 to 2016.

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Table 17
MIA climate trend analysis in TREND software in the period 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2016 for the 38 rainfall stations located in the Brígida river basin.

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Table 18
AI for the 38 pluviometric stations of the Brígida river basin in the period 1961 to 2016.

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Table 19
AI climate trend analysis in TREND software in the period 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2016 for the 38 rainfall stations located in the Brígida river basin.

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Table 20
AI_ASD for the 38 pluviometric stations of the Brígida river basin in the period 1961 to 2016.

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Table 21
AI_ASD climate trend analysis in TREND software in the period 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2016 for the 38 rainfall stations located in the Brígida river basin.

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Table 22
Statistical analysis of the Tukey test for the averages of the dry indices.

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Table 23
Statistical analysis of the Tukey test for the averages of the aridity indices.

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Categories	RAI	Description
R0	≥ 4.0	Extremely wet
R1	≥ 2.0 and < 4.0	Very wet
R2	> 0 and < 2.0	Wet
R3	< 0 and > -2.0	Dry
R4	≤ -2.0 and > -4.0	Very dry
R5	≤ -4.0	Extremely dry

Categories	SPI	Description
S0	≥ 2.0	Extremely wet
S1	1.5 to 1.99	Very wet
S2	1.0 to 1.49	Moderately wet
S3	-0.99 to 0.99	Near normal
S4	-1.0 to -1.49	Moderately dry
S5	-1.5 to -1.99	Severely dry
S6	≤ -2.0	Extremely dry

Categories	PDSI	Description
P1	≥ 4.0	Extremely wet
P2	3.0 to 3.99	Very wet
P3	1.0 to 2.99	Moderately wet
P4	1.0 to 1.99	Slightly wet
P5	0.50 to 0.99	Incipient wet spell
P6	0.49 to -0.49	Near normal
P7	-0.50 to -0.99	Incipient drought
P8	-1.0 to -1.99	Mild drought
P9	-2.0 to -2.99	Moderate drought
P10	-3.0 to -3.99	Severe drought
P11	≤ -4.0	Extreme drought

Categories	MIA	Description
M0	> 60	Humidity above normal
M1	> 30 and ≤ 60	Wet
M2	> 20 and ≤ 30	Humidity below normal
M3	> 15 and ≤ 20	Semi-arid
M4	> 5 and ≤ 15	Arid
M5^* * The last Class (M5) was adapted to ≥ 0 and ≤ 5, instead of > 0 and 5. Source: Martonne (1926) adapted by the authors.	≥ 0 and ≤ 5	Extremely Arid

Categories	AI	Description
A0	≥ 0 and ≤ 16.7	Little or no water deficiency
A1	> 16.7 and ≤ 33.3	Moderate Hydric deficiency
A2	> 33.3	Great water deficiency

Categories	AI_ASD	Zone
AI1	≤ 0.05	Hyper-arid
AI2	> 0.05 and ≤ 0.20	Arid
AI3	> 0.20 and ≤ 0.50	Semi-arid
AI4	> 0.50 and ≤ 0.65	Dry Subhumid
AI5	> 0.65	Subhumid Humid

Indices	Input Data	Advantage	Disadvantage
RAI¹ 1 Drought Indices;	Rainfall	- Uses only a single type of input data	It does not take into account other factors that can influence the rainfall regime, such as temperature, evapotranspiration, etc.
RAI¹ 1 Drought Indices;	Rainfall	- It can identify positive and negative anomalies in the rainfall regime
SPI¹	Rainfall	- Uses only a single type of input data.	- It does not take into account other factors that can influence the rainfall regime, such as temperature, evapotranspiration, etc.
SPI¹	Rainfall	- It can identify the beginning and end of the dry season.	- Requires a minimum of 30 years of data series.
PDSI¹	Rainfall, evapotranspiration, moisture of soil, recharge, water balance	- It can identify the beginning and end of the dry season.	Requires a wide variety of input data that is not always available.
PDSI¹		- Uses a variety of data that makes the index more sensitive to hydrological changes.
MIA² 2 Aridity Indices.	Rainfall and temperature	- Uses only two types of input data	-
AI²	Rainfall and evapotranspiration	- Uses only two types of input data	Evapotranspiration data are not always available for the study region.
AI_ASD²	Rainfall and evapotranspiration	- Uses only two types of input data	Evapotranspiration data are not always available for the study region.

Month	Rainfall (mm)	AVG (°C)	MIN (°C)	MAX (°C)	UR (%)
Jan	87.2	27.0	22.4	32.8	57
Feb	85.8	26.5	22.2	32.0	61
Mar	136.1	26.4	22.0	31.9	67
Apr	104.6	25.6	21.7	31.0	67
May	40.4	24.8	20.8	29.9	67
Jun	19.4	24.0	19.8	29.1	66
Jul	13.5	23.7	19.1	29.1	65
Aug	3.8	24.5	19.4	30.2	59
Sep	4.1	26.0	20.7	32.0	53
Oct	10.5	27.9	22.1	34.0	48
Nov	38.8	28.4	22.8	34.1	49
Dec	55.4	27.7	22.7	33.7	54
Annual	599.5	26	21.3	31.7	59.4

Month	Rainfall (mm)	AVG (°C)	MIN (°C)	MAX (°C)	UR (%)
Jan	85.7	28.0	23.2	33.6	56
Feb	77.4	27.7	23.1	33.3	60
Mar	110.7	27.5	23.1	32.9	64
Apr	67.6	27.1	22.8	32.5	64
May	32.4	26.1	22.0	31.4	65
Jun	8.5	25.0	20.9	30.3	65
Jul	11.5	24.3	19.9	29.7	63
Aug	5.3	24.9	19.9	30.6	58
Sep	2.3	26.7	21.0	32.6	51
Oct	10.7	28.3	22.5	34.3	47
Nov	28.3	29.1	23.6	34.8	46
Dec	50.9	28.9	23.8	34.6	50
Annual	491.2	27.0	22.2	32.5	57.6

Classes	1961-1990		1991-2016		Growth Rate (%)
Classes	Nº	(%)	Nº	(%)	Growth Rate (%)
R0	725	5.30	230	1.94	-63.4
R1	1288	9.42	707	5.96	-36.7
R2	3358	24.55	2933	24.74	+0.8
R3	3346	24.46	4490	37.87	+54.8
R4	4952	36.20	3484	29.39	-18.8
R5	10	0.07	12	0.10	+38.5

Tests	NS	α = 0.1	α = 0.05	α = 0.01
Mann-kendall	87%	3%	11%	0%
Spearman's Rho	87%	0%	11%	3%
Linear regression	71%	11%	13%	5%
Cumulative deviation	71%	13%	13%	3%
Worsley likelihood	79%	8%	8%	5%
Rank Sum	76%	11%	8%	5%
Student’s¹ 1 All pluviometric stations with a significant difference obtained an average of 1961-1990 greater than 1991-2016, the only exception being station 739031. NS = Not Significant for α = 0.05 and 0.01.	71%	11%	13%	5%

Classes	1961-1990		1991-2016		Growth Rate (%)
Classes	Nº	(%)	Nº	(%)	Growth Rate (%)
S0	303	2.55	0	0.00	-100.0
S1	835	7.02	26	0.22	-96.9
S2	1853	15.58	125	1.05	-93.2
S3	8148	68.51	8746	73.77	+7.7
S4	456	3.83	900	7.59	+98.0
S5	217	1.82	1025	8.65	+373.9
S6	82	0.69	1034	8.72	+1165.0

Tests	NS	α = 0.1	α = 0.05	α = 0.01
Mann-kendall	21%	8%	13%	58%
Spearman's Rho	21%	11%	16%	53%
Linear regression	16%	3%	13%	68%
Cumulative deviation	8%	13%	16%	63%
Worsley likelihood	0%	0%	0%	100%
Rank Sum	16%	5%	26%	53%
Student’s¹ 1 All pluviometric stations with a significant difference obtained an average of 1961-1990 greater than 1991-2016. NS = Not Significant for α = 0.05 and 0.01.	5%	18%	18%	58%

Classes	1961-1990		1991-2016		Growth Rate (%)
Classes	Nº	(%)	Nº	(%)	Growth Rate (%)
P1	6475	47.33	3315	27.96	-40.9
P2	27	0.20	17	0.14	-27.4
P3	28	0.20	26	0.22	+7.1
P4	20	0.15	23	0.19	+32.7
P5	9	0.07	18	0.15	+130.8
P6	246	1.80	251	2.12	+17.7
P7	22	0.16	22	0.19	+15.4
P8	42	0.31	62	0.52	+70.3
P9	64	0.47	56	0.47	+1.0
P10	68	0.50	71	0.60	+20.5
P11	6679	48.82	7995	67.43	+38.1

Tests	NS	α = 0.1	α = 0.05	α = 0.01
Mann-kendall	18%	13%	39%	29%
Spearman's Rho	21%	11%	42%	26%
Linear regression	13%	5%	34%	47%
Cumulative deviation	24%	8%	37%	32%
Worsley likelihood	3%	5%	24%	68%
Rank Sum	13%	21%	29%	37%
Student’s¹ 1 All pluviometric stations with a significant difference obtained an average of 1961-1990 greater than 1991-2016. NS = Not Significant for α = 0.05 and 0.01.	3%	8%	34%	55%

Classes	1961-1990		1991-2016		Growth Rate (%)
Classes	Nº	(%)	Nº	(%)	Growth Rate (%)
M0	916	6.70	354	2.99	-55.4
M1	1918	14.02	1588	13.39	-4.5
M2	1292	9.44	1081	9.12	-3.5
M3	795	5.81	706	5.95	+2.5
M4	2859	20.90	2478	20.90	+0.01
M5	5900	43.13	5649	47.65	+10.5

Tests	NS	α = 0.1	α = 0.05	α = 0.01
Mann-kendall	42%	24%	21%	13%
Spearman's Rho	39%	29%	24%	8%
Linear regression	32%	21%	34%	13%
Cumulative deviation	55%	16%	21%	8%
Worsley likelihood	34%	47%	11%	8%
Rank Sum	53%	29%	13%	5%
Student’s¹ 1 All pluviometric stations with a significant difference obtained an average in 1961-1990 greater than 1991-2016. NS = Not Significant for α = 0.05 and 0.01.	26%	26%	39%	8%

Classes	1961-1990		1991-2016		Growth Rate (%)
Classes	Nº	(%)	Nº	(%)	Growth Rate (%)
A0	7295	53.33	6880	58.03	+8.8
A1	2042	14.93	1882	15.87	+6.3
A2	4343	31.75	3094	26.10	-17.8

Tests	NS	α = 0.1	α = 0.05	α = 0.01
Mann-kendall	47%	29%	21%	3%
Spearman's Rho	47%	29%	18%	5%
Linear regression	39%	29%	26%	5%
Cumulative deviation	58%	18%	16%	8%
Worsley likelihood	61%	32%	5%	3%
Rank Sum	50%	24%	21%	5%
Student’s¹ 1 All pluviometric stations with a significant difference obtained an average of 1961-1990 greater than 1991-2016. NS = Not Significant for α = 0.05 and 0.01.	16%	34%	45%	5%

Classes	1961-1990		1991-2016		Growth Rate (%)
Classes	Nº	(%)	Nº	(%)	Growth Rate (%)
AI1	4841	35.39	4534	38.24	+8.1
AI2	3028	22.13	2876	24.26	+9.6
AI3	2818	20.60	2301	19.41	-5.8
AI4	775	5.67	718	6.06	+6.9
AI5	2218	16.21	1427	12.04	-25.8

Tests	NS	α = 0.1	α = 0.05	α = 0.01
Mann-kendall	47%	32%	18%	3%
Spearman's Rho	50%	26%	18%	5%
Linear regression	39%	26%	29%	5%
Cumulative deviation	58%	18%	16%	8%
Worsley likelihood	61%	32%	5%	3%
Rank Sum	47%	21%	26%	5%
Student’s¹ 1 All pluviometric stations with a significant difference showed an average of 1961-1990 greater than 1991-2016. NS = Not Significant for α = 0.05 and 0.01.	21%	11%	37%	32%

Treatments	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
1	-0.4501 b	-0.19862 b	-0.20114 b	-0.47483 b	-0.5753 b	-0.63402 b	-0.59994 b	-0.91836 a	-1.21691 a	-1.01375 a	-0.5303 b	-0.46562 b
2	-0.00222 b	-0.00039 b	0.00053 b	0.00012 b	0.00002 b	-0.00024 b	0.00086 b	0.00089 c	-0.01911 c	-0.04862 c	-0.03489 b	-0.00764 b
3	0.00007 b	0.00096 b	-0.00026 b	0.00017 b	0.00017 b	0.00001 b	-0.00012 b	-0.00019 c	-0.00018 c	-0.00001 c	0.00028 b	-0.00011 b
4	0.00015 b	0.00027 b	0.00004 b	0.00018 b	0.00036 b	0.00024 b	0.00009 b	0.00009 c	0.0001 c	0.0002 c	0.00016 b	-0.0002 b
5	0.00043 b	0.00047 b	0.00034 b	0.00042 b	0.00047 b	0.00043 b	0.0004 b	0.00041 c	0.00041 c	0.00046 c	0.00036 b	0.00034 b
6	0.00043 b	0.00059 b	0.0004 b	0.00047 b	0.00052 b	0.00049 b	0.00045 b	0.00046 c	0.00046 c	0.00051 c	0.00047 b	0.00052 b
7	-5.81513 a	-3.92524 a	-1.33564 a	-4.96505 a	-5.87731 a	-6.86455 a	-7.45598 a	-8.58406 b	-8.37621 b	-6.75809 b	-7.00738 a	-6.72485 a

Treatments	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
8	29.68374 b	32.55997 b	44.48714 b	27.30692 b	10.52385 b	4.58909 b	3.537108 b	1.240406 b	1.485797 b	3.928926 b	10.00747 b	20.30583 b
9	48.62154 a	61.64272 a	81.10747 a	60.76616 a	24.39913 a	11.63824 a	7.897361 a	2.336029 a	2.570431 a	6.180961 a	15.92445 a	31.10277 a
10	0.48616 c	0.6164 c	0.81103 c	0.60758 c	0.24391 c	0.11641 c	0.079084 c	0.023379 c	0.02563 c	0.061748 c	0.15933 c	0.31099 c

[1] E-mails: fjoanny@gmail.com (FJBCS), robdosport@hotmail.com (JRGA)

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Tendência temporal dos índices de seca e de aridez no semiárido pernambucano para determinação da susceptibilidade a desertificação

RESUMO