Development of reservoir operation rules using seasonal climate forecasts

Morais, Andressa Adna Cavalcante; Maia, Adelena Gonçalves

doi:10.1590/2318-0331.262120210012

Andressa Adna Cavalcante Morais

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brasil

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7268-6070

Adelena Gonçalves Maia

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brasil

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7078-1725

E-mails: andressa_adna@hotmail.com (AACM), adelenam@gmail.com (AGM)

Authors contributionsAndressa Adna Cavalcante Morais: Conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, software, validation, visualization, writing – original draft, writing – review & editingAdelena Gonçalves Maia: Conceptualization, methodology, project administration, supervision, writing – original draft, writing – review & editing.

Editor in-Chief: Adilson Pinheiro Associated Editor: Fernando Mainardi Fan

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Figure 1
Cruzeta reservoir location.

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Figure 2
Monthly averages of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow in the reservoir.

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Figure 3
Cruzeta reservoir storage.

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Figure 4
Schematic illustration of the operation rule curves with two-stage rationing (modified from Chiamsathit et al., 2014Chiamsathit, C., Adeloye, A. J., & Soudharajan, B. (2014). Genetic algorithms optimization of hedging rules for operation of the multi-purpose Ubonratana Reservoir in Thailand. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 364, 507-512. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-364-507-2014.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-364-507-20... ).

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Figure 5
Volumetric evolution of the base scenarios.

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Figure 6
Monthly volumetric efficiency of the application scenarios.

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Figure 7
Volumetric evolution of the application scenarios.

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Figure 8
Ratios of lost water volume in the application scenarios.

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Figure 9
Average monthly storage levels of the application scenarios.

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Table 1
Demands from the Cruzeta reservoir (Agência Nacional de Águas, 2016aAgência Nacional de Águas – ANA, & Ministério do Meio Ambiente. (2016a). Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Piancó-Piranhas-Açu - Resumo Executivo (160 p.). Brasília: ANA. Retrieved in 2021, January 15, from http://piranhasacu.ana.gov.br/produtos/PRH_PiancoPiranhasAcu_ResumoExecutivo_30062016.pdf
http://piranhasacu.ana.gov.br/produtos/P... ).

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Table 2
Accumulated rainfall in the period (mm) – Cruzeta Station (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, 2019aInstituto Nacional de Meteorologia – INMET. (2019a). Faixa Normal da Precipitação Trimestral. Retrieved in 2021, January 15, from http://www.inmet.gov.br/portal/index.php?r=clima/faixaNormalPrecipitacaoTrimestral2
http://www.inmet.gov.br/portal/index.php... ).

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Table 3
Summary of base scenarios.

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Table 4
Summary of application scenarios.

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Table 5
Limits of the quarterly normal-range affluent flow (m³/s).

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Table 6
Performance indicators for the base scenarios.

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Table 7
Performance indicators for the application scenarios.

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Table 8
Meeting the demands (%) in the application scenarios.

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Table 9
Forecast Accuracy.

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Priority demands (m³/s)		Non-priority demands (m³/s)		Total demand (m³/s)
Human supply	Livestock	Irrigation	Industrial	Total demand (m³/s)
0.028	0.026	0.874	0.010	0.938

QUARTER	JAN FEB MAR	FEB MAR APR	MAR APR MAY	APR MAY JUNE	MAY JUNE JULY	JUNE JULY AUG	JULY AUG SEP	AUG SEP OCT	SEP OCT NOV	OCT NOV DEC	NOV DEC JAN	DEC JAN FEB
Lower limit	233.2	281.7	239.8	145.4	67.3	33.3	10.8	2.8	2.4	8.9	60.4	123.9
Average	310.8	371.6	340.0	233.9	114.6	59.2	29.1	16.1	13.5	34.7	106.8	195.0
Upper limit	353.7	422.1	389.9	269.6	132.0	68.1	31.9	15.1	12.8	35.6	122.8	224.8

Scenarios	Variables	Period
SOP1	-	1964–2012 (588 months)
D1	CR1, CR2, α₁, α₂	1964–2012 (588 months)
D2	α_1R, α_1N, α_1D, α_2R, α_2N, α_2D	1964–2012 (585 months)

Scenarios	Operation rule applied	Period
SOP₂	Standard operating rule	2004–2012 (100 months)
C	Current operating rule for the reservoir
R	Rationing rule with the variables derived from D₁
RF	Rationing rule with precipitation forecast, rationing levels (CR₁ and CR₂) of D₁, and the coefficients of D₂
RPF	Rationing rule with perfect precipitation forecast, rationing levels (CR₁ and CR₂) of D₁, and the coefficients of D₂

QUARTER	JAN FEB MAR	FEB MAR APR	MAR APR MAY	APR MAY JUN	MAY JUN JUL	JUN JUL AUG	JUL AUG SEP	AUG SEP OCT	SEP OCT NOV	OCT NOV DEC	NOV DEC JAN	DEC JAN FEB
Lower limit	0.45	1.72	3.13	3.60	2.78	1.48	0.60	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04
Upper limit	1.40	3.86	6.22	6.99	5.49	3.33	1.57	0.56	0.12	0.00	0.04	0.28

Performance indicators	Base scenarios
Performance indicators	SOP₁	D₁	D₂
Y_total	0.67	0.49	0.53
Y_pri	0.68	1.00	1.00

Performance indicators	Application scenarios
Performance indicators	SOP₂	C	R	RF	RPF
Y_total	0.83	0.52	0.59	0.61	0.62
Y_pri	0.84	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Y_failure	0.123	0.079	0.256	0.321	0.323
r	0.21	0.15	0.14	0.12	0.12

Demand service	Application scenarios
Demand service	SOP₂	C	R	RF	RPF
Integral	81	48	44	43	43
Partial	3	52	56	57	57
No service	16	-	-	-	-

INMET’s Forecast		Rainfall occurred
Number of quarters	Humidity of the quarter	Number of quarters	Humidity of the quarter
9	Dry	6	Normal
9	Dry	3	Rainy
46	Normal	27	Dry
46	Normal	19	Rainy
1	Rainy	1	Normal

S p_{t} \{\begin{matrix} = 0 \to I f S_{t f} < S_{m a x} \\ = S_{t f} - S_{m a x} \to I f S_{t f} > S_{m a x} \end{matrix}

[1] E-mails: andressa_adna@hotmail.com (AACM), adelenam@gmail.com (AGM)

Brasil

Brasil

Development of reservoir operation rules using seasonal climate forecasts

Definição de regra de operação de reservatórios com uso de previsões climáticas sazonais

ABSTRACT