Preliminary analysis for agroclimatic zoning proposal for peach tree cultivation in Mozambique

ABSTRACT Mozambique is a country located in the southwest of the African continent. The country has great climatic diversity. The tropical monsoon (Am), tropical savanna (Aw), hot semiarid (BSh), and humid subtropical (Cwa and Cfa) and subtropical highland (Cwb) climates stand out. The regions classified a subtropical have climatic potential for the rational exploitation low and medium chill requirement of peach trees. There are already technologies for the cultivation of peach trees in subtropical regions in Brazil. The objective of this study was to identify the zoning of suitable areas and provide bases for the establishment and expansion of peach cultivation in Mozambique. Meteorological data from 108 stations and the geotechnological tool ArcGIS 10.1 were used to spatialize temperature, rainfall, and humidity data and then reclassify them for the generation of maps using the Geostatistical Analyst extension. In parallel, maps of mean annual temperatures and climate classification were used. Regions in the subtropical areas of Mozambique with suitable temperature and rainfall are viable for peach plantations. The results showed the Northwest, Central and South regions is more suitable for the economic exploitation of peaches trees.


INTRODUCTION
The peach tree (Prunus persica L. Bastsch) is a fruit tree belonging to the family Rosaceae of Asian origin.Because it is a temperate fruit tree, it has a dormancy mechanism (Pio et al., 2018).
Temperate fruit trees to regions with defined climatic seasons.In these regions, temperatures are appropriate for growth during spring and summer.In fall and winter, to survive low temperatures, temperate fruit trees have developed an adaptation mechanism that involves the acquisition of chilling resistance and growth control, known as dormancy (Erez, 2000).Dormancy is the mechanism by which temperate fruit trees protect plant tissue, which is sensitive to unfavorable climatic conditions, especially below freezing temperatures (Campoy et al., 2011).In turn, the lack of a sufficiently chilling period or a long winter and, consequently, the nonbreaking of dormancy alter the flowering and leafing of temperate fruit trees.This promotes leafing and erratic flowering, with a reduction in the number of buds sprouted and plant growth, the shortening of internodes, the growth of vertical branches, low fruiting, deformed fruits and, in more severe conditions, plant death.(Campoy et al., 2011).
The main obstacle in the production of temperate fruits in the tropics is to break the dormancy period (Erez, 2000).
However, through genetic improvements, there are culti-Preliminary analysis for agroclimatic zoning proposal for peach tree cultivation in Mozambique vars with fewer chilling requirements that can be grown in subtropical zones (Souza et al., 2019).Some low chilling peach cultivars do not enter into deep endodormancy and are, therefore, able to respond to external cues of growth and development (Citadin et al., 2022).
The exploitation of peach trees in subtropical regions has expanded, especially in Brazil.In this sense, there has been an intensification of studies related to genetic improvements, and dozens of cultivars can be grown in regions with mild or practically nonexistent winter (Scariotto et al., 2013 andCitadin et al., 2014;Tadeu et al., 2019).A series of studies was conducted to adapt culture management techniques for peach cultivation in the tropics (Pio et al., 2018).
The adoption of peach cultivars that require less chilling in mild winter regions makes it possible to harvest fruits in periods with lower supply (Barbosa et al., 2010) because the harvest of early peaches in subtropical regions occurs earlier in the season compared to that in traditional temperate regions (Araújo et al., 2008).
Mozambique is a country located in the better south or southeast, but not southwest of the African continent.The country has great climatic diversity.In subtropical zones, the exploitation of the peach tree, may be possible.
In the tropics, compared to the dry season, in which droughts of variable duration are frequent, the rainy season is characterized by greater rainfall intensity and frequency (Moraes et al., 2005;Uele et al., 2017).In this regard, agricultural zoning, based on the climate and soil potential of a region, and adversities are of high relevance.
The rainy season is characterized by remarkable spatial fluctuation; therefore, the use of different agricultural calendars for each state or region of a country is advised (Moraes et al., 2005).The mapping of climatically homogeneous microregions can establish compatible indicators for the rational exploitation of crops.The use of geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and spatial analysis are useful for developing strategies to select potential species for cultivation.GIS has played a key role in zoning studies and zone identification, adding knowledge and providing information (Sá Júnior et al., 2012).
Zoning for peach cultivation may inform producers regarding appropriate regions for peach production in Moçambique.The main objective of this study is to Preliminary analysis for agroclimatic zoning proposal for peach cultivation in Mozambique.

Characterization of the área
The study region is located on the eastern coast of

Spatialization of meteorological data
The agroecological zoning for peach tree cultivation in Mozambique consisted of following the cultivation standards in terms of the number of hours of chill required for plant development, related to plant budbreak (Lang et al., 1987), in addition to the mean, maximum, and minimum annual rainfall, humidity, and temperatures.
Rainfall frequency at the existing stations was determined based on statistical calculations of the data observed between 01/1989 and 12/2019, accounting for 30 years of monthly data obtained using a conventional rain gauge.
The historical series of frequencies over the years during the study period was analyzed, totaling 108 record points, and rainfall, air temperature, and humidity were analyzed were collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) website, climwat 2.0 for cropwat 8.0 (FAO, 2021).
The total rainfall of each year from 01/1989 to 12/2019 was compared to the rainfall index for the period, which was obtained from the mean annual rainfall in the study.
Minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures were also used for the meteorological data.A multiple linear regression was calculated in which the mean temperature was adopted as the dependent variable and longitude and altitude were adopted as the independent variables.Latitude was not considered because it has collinearity with longitude.
Map algebra was used after acquiring the multiple linear regression coefficients (Table 1), based on equation 1, and a matrix image of the mean temperatures of the states of Mozambique was obtained (Gasparini et al., 2015).Sum of chilling the hours of below 7.2 °C were calculated for the period between May and September using a model adjusted for Mozambique based on the model reported by Damario et al. (1999), who estimate the hours of chilling from minimum air temperature data.The

Köppen climate classification for Mozambique was used
to aid in the determination of regions for peach cultivation (Köppen, 1931).
The mean rainfall, mean temperature and mean humidity for the previous 30 years were input, and spatial interpolation using the ordinary kriging method was applied through the ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst   Preliminary analysis for agroclimatic zoning proposal for peach tree cultivation in Mozambique

RESULTS
The Figure 2A showed that the coastal region of Mozambique has the highest rainfall.This is believed to be due to the boundary zone between the ocean and mountains.In the west, annual rainfall exceeds 500 mm, with fluctuations depending on latitude.In the western region, chilling fronts enter the country, normally providing hot and humid summers and lower mean temperatures and rainfall in winter (Figure 2B).
Regarding rainfall, the country does not have areas with rainfall scarcity, and the highest indices occur in the Center, North, and Southern Coastal regions (Figure 2A).
Based on the distribution of mean annual rainfall and temperature, the areas that are potentially suitable for peach tree cultivation are located in the Northwest regions of the provinces of Niassa, the central regions of the provinces of Tete and Manica, the South regions of the provinces of Maputo already produce peach and are the provinces where the exploitation is most significant, as they are at higher altitudes.In these areas, the climate is characterized by mild temperatures with a mean annual temperature of not more than 24 °C (Figure 2B) and rainfall ranging between 800 and 1000 mm (Figure 2A).
In some regions, the mean annual rainfall in the areas at lower altitudes, such as the provinces of Zambezia, Nampula and Cabo Delgado, varies between 200 and 1,000 mm.The southern zone comprises the entire coastal strip of Gaza and approximately the entire province of Inhambane to the Save River.In this zone, the rainfall varies from 600 to 800 mm, and rainfall irregularity can cause periods of drought during traditional rainy seasons (Figure 2A).
Based on high air humidity displayed in Figure 2C, the regions of Niassa, with humidity ranging from 78 to 84% (green color), Nampula and Zambezia, with humidity ranging from 84 to 90% (light blue color), and the regions of Zambezia and Gaza, with humidity ranging from 90 to 96% (dark blue color), are zones in which fungal diseases are more likely to occur.
The temperatures shown in Figure 3 are those that occur, on average, every year in several regions, meaning that in some regions, the temperatures are high and may hinder the minimum amount of chill necessary for the development of peach cultivars recommended for subtropical and tropical regions.Notably, in recent years, the cultivation of temperate fruit tree species has crossed the agricultural frontier as a result of genetic improvements, such as the development of peach tree cultivars that require less cumulative chill hours.

DISCUSSION
In Mozambique, annual rainfall is abundant and occurs in the summer months (December to February), varying from 850 to 1000 mm annually on the coast and to approximately 550 mm annually in the west (Schouwenaars, 1988).Rainfall is well distributed, with no separation between rainy and dry seasons (Reason, 2007).
According to Uele et al. (2017), the displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone favors a longer rainy Even with favorable climatic conditions, because agroclimatic zoning was performed considering the macroscale, the existence of local variations in soil suitability was not evaluated, and this complementary evaluation is recommended (Caramori et al., 2008).
Rainfall and temperature are important factors that directly affect peach cultivation and favorable yields, as Agriculture in Brazil, enabling production in subtropical and tropical regions with mild winters and summers with high temperatures (Souza et al., 2013;Scariotto et al., 2013;Citadin et al., 2014;Raseira et al., 2014;Tadeu et al., 2019).
The ideal technologies should stem from an understanding of the bioclimate-altitude interaction because research objectives and crop development processes are affected by these factors.By accounting for these factors, the best balance can be achieved between the climate and agricultural technologies or techniques related to temperate fruit trees regarding the amount of chill hours.Importantly, higher altitude directly affects temperature.To improve production methods for temperate fruit trees in specific states, it is essential to observe the relationship between a cultivar and climatic and edaphic factors, including the altitude of each region (Souza et al., 2013).
Currently, there is abundant new information on the introduction of new cultivars or species adapted to the conditions of particular regions as well as data on the growth and quality of fruit trees in commercial plantations.This has increased knowledge regarding the characterization of soils and climate, allowing a more precise indication of the genetic material to be used for cultivation in each region.
The intent is to improve the quality of agronomic and meteorological information and to characterize the microregions suitable and unfit for agricultural exploitation.
extension, with statistical adjustment of the exponential semivariogram according to Cecílio et al. (2012) to generate the matrix image of the mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, and mean annual humidity, which were obtained from the 108 weather stations; the stations were located based on altitude and coordinates of the parallels, latitude, longitude to generate maps in ArcGIS version 10.1.Adjacent data for the creation of maps were collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) website, climwat 2.0 for cropwat 8.0 (FAO, 2021).The maps were generated at the Department of Water Resources of the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), Lavras, MG, Brazil.

Figure 1 :
Figure 1: Map showing Mozambique with its administrative divisions and spatial distribution of weather stations -Africa.Source: https://www.worldatlas.com/maps/mozambique.

Figure 2 :
Figure 2: Climatic zoning to determine areas suitable and unfit for peach cultivation, based on rainfall (A), temperature (B), and humidity (C) in Mozambique averages recorded from 1989 to 2019.Data extracted from the FAO website (FAO, 2021).

Figure 3 :
Figure 3: Climatic zoning of areas suitable and unfit for peach cultivation, based on the minimum temperature (A) and maximum temperature (B) in Mozambique (1989 to 2019).Data extracted from the FAO website (FAO, 2021).

Figure 4 :
Figure 4: Köppen climate classification of Mozambique.Source: Köppen (1931).Note: in printed version of paper, please do not use color printing.Data extracted from the FAO website (FAO, 2021).

Figure 5 :
Figure 5: Meteorological factors that influence peach cultivation: temperature (°C).Source: Statiscal yearbook, 2019.Note: in printed version of paper, please do not use color printing.

Figure 6 :
Figure 6: Meteorological factors that influence peach cultivation: accumulated rainfall (mm).Source: Statiscal yearbook, 2019.Note: in printed version of paper, please do not use color printing.

Table 1 :
Multiple linear regression statistics were used to estimate the mean temperatures of Mozambican states and to produce maps *significant p-value (p < 0.05).