The unidirectional relationship between consumer confidence and PSI-20 returns - The influence of the economic cycle

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to determine the relationship between market sentiment and rates of return on the main Portuguese benchmark and verify whether this relationship is influenced by different economic cycles. Given the subjectivity inherent to the use of variables capturing investor sentiment, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was used as a benchmark. To achieve the proposed objective, an analysis of time series stationarity, Pearson correlation, and Granger causality using the autoregressive vectors model was carried out, followed by the Least Squares Method with macroeconomic variables. The results obtained suggest a one-way relationship between stock market returns and the sentiment variable. In fact, in times of recession, investor pessimism induces linear behavior and the sentiment-return relationship is more evident. This article will thus be of interest both to the academic community, in providing a basis for future investigations, and to managers and investors, with regards to the perception that the predictability of returns will be easier in periods of recession.

Keywords
financial markets; behavioral finance; Consumer Confidence Index; PSI-20; economic cycle