ESTIMANDO A DEMANDA POR BANDA LARGA NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE POR MEIO DE MODELOS DE ESCOLHA DISCRETA

Leandro, Tainá; Gomes, Victor

Tainá Leandro

Specialist in Public Policy and Governmental Management for the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Brazilian Federal Government. Brasilia, DF, Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4502-3292

Victor Gomes

Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Brasilia. Brasilia, DF, Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6838-7294

Corresponding Author:
Tainá Leandro E-mail address: tainaleandro74@gmail.com

Variable	Obs.	Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
Speed	9,501	22.111	33.786	0.25	300
Price	9,501	116.553	50.970	19.9	799.9
Wi-Fi dummy	7,505	0.751	0.433	0	1
Bundle dummy	9,501	0.749	0.433	0	1
Potential market (So)	9,501	0.811	0.161	0.298	0.996
MHDI Schooling	9,501	0.609	0.098	0.299	0.825
Log of GDP per capita	9,501	9.749	0.738	8.084	12.446
% Urban population	9,501	77,028	21,224	9,350	100,000
% Young population	9,501	41,275	3,143	29,340	69,180
Total population	9,501	187,710.4	756,479.8	836	1.20e+07

Range of speed	Speed	Average price	Offers		Triple Play
			#	%	#	%
0 to 5 Mbps	0.25	31.73	336	3.54%	0	0%
	0.5	42.4	25	0.26%	25	100%
	1	62.73	23	0.24%	21	91.30%
	2	96.42	2,053	21.61%	1,701	82.85%
	3	104.35	4	0.04%	2	50.00%
	4	55.85	472	4.97%	134	28.39%
	5	68.84	21	0.22%	8	38.10%
6 to 20 Mbps	6	59.9	2	0.02%	2	100%
	7	41.56	9	0.09%	1	11.11%
	8	60.87	29	0.31%	0	0%
	10	107.23	1,549	16.30%	1,202	77.60%
	15	131.1	1,590	16.74%	1,549	97.42%
21 to 49 Mbps	20	148.57	24	0.25%	14	58.33%
	25	132.37	1,654	17.41%	1,411	85.31%
	30	113.98	167	1.76%	130	77.84%
	35	151.57	643	6.77%	611	95.02%
	40	107.01	3	0.03%	3	100%
> 50 Mbps	50	113.99	232	2.44%	36	15.52%
	60	154.37	133	1.40%	133	100%
	64	105.62	28	0.29%	0	0%
	100	115.8	142	1.49%	10	7.04%
	120	328.18	128	1.35%	128	100%
	150	234.9	90	0.95%	0	0%
	200	134.38	129	1.36%	0	0%
	300	334.9	15	0.16%	0	0%
Total			9,501	100.00%	7,121	74.95%

	(i)	(ii)
$\ln ({\bar{s}}_{j / g})$	.74233038	.72800485
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Price	-.01879599	-.01666353
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Speed	.00904605	.00592498
	(0.002)	(0.051)
Wi-Fi dummy	-.52138864	-.55958953
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Bundle dummy	.78921698	1.2869006
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Per capta revenue	.0019213	.0018662
	(0.000)	(0.000)
% young population	.0094634	.00436183
	(0.353)	(0.659)
MHDI - Schooling	4.4247239	4.3486739
	(0.000)	(0.000)
% urban population	.0189036	.01855084
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Log of Scale	.00118402	.00111909
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Telefônica	-	.90820531
		(0.000)
Constant	-8.797	-9.341
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Instruments	# of offers by competitors and Average regional prices
CenteredR²	0.6908	0.7007
F Test	26.42	28.28
Sargan (p-value)	0.0109	0.0315

		(i)	(ii)
Price elasticity	Mean	-5.376	-4.582
	S.D.	4.241	3.529
Cross elasticity - group	Mean	4.355	3.590
	S.D.	2.954	2.435
Cross elasticity - nongroup	Mean	0.051	0.045
	S.D.	0.077	0.068

	(i)
Range of speed	0 to 5	6 to 20	21 to 49	> 50
Price elasticity	-2.717	-5.642	-5.597	-13.750
Cross elasticity - group	5.026	3.680	5.027	2.426
Cross elasticity - nongroup	0.091	0.064	0.011	0.011
	(ii)
Range of speed	0 to 5	6 to 20	21 to 49	> 50
Price elasticity	-2.358	-4.794	-4.782	-11.587
Cross elasticity - group	4.145	3.035	4.141	1.999
Cross elasticity - nongroup	0.080	0.056	0.009	0.010

	(i)		(ii)
	1	2 or more	1	2 or more
Price elasticity	4.348	-8.241	-4.577	-6.950
Cross elasticity - group	5.214	1.958	3.760	1.616
Cross elasticity - nongroup	0.051	0.053	0.046	0.047

Number of groups that provide broadband services in the municipality
Proxy for firm size	1	2	3	4	5
National	1,580	160	141	89	27
Regional	54	8	4	10	1
Local	0	18	23	27	13

Variable	(iii)	(iv)
$\ln ({\bar{s}}_{j / h g})$	.91198804	.9194391
	(0.000)	(0.000)
$\ln ({\bar{s}}_{h / g})$	.67506251	.82861742
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Price	-.01101813	-.00736717
	(0.000)	(0.004)
Speed	.01070664	.00733026
	(0.0012)	(0.0204)
Wi-Fi dummy	.04008373	-.19931427
	(0.8931)	(0.4654)
Bundle dummy	1.0201742	.8854934
	(0.0011)	(0.0063)
Per capta revenue	.00099757	.00095122
	(0.000)	(0.000)
% young population	.01826012	.01403275
	(0.4395)	(0.4929)
MHDI Schooling	2.289.971	2.3061636
	(0.0192)	(0.0156)
% urban population	.00853557	.00874052
	(0.0494)	(0.0255)
Log of Area	.00797505	-.00224646
	(0.8642)	(0.9580)
Log of Scale	.00174188	.00136469
	(0.000)	(0.001)
Constant	-5.6567152	-4.9203451
	(0.000)	(0.000)
Instruments	Average regional prices; # offers by competitors; Average speed on group and subgroup	Average regional prices; # offers by competitors; Average speed on subgroup
Centered R²	0.8355	0.8385
Underidentification test	26.119	25.014
Sargan	(0.0699)	(0.1975)

		(iii)	(iv)
Price elasticity	Mean	-10.232	-8.989
	S.D.	7.707	6.695
Cross elasticity - group	Mean	2.516	2.100
	S.D.	2.837	2.360
Cross elasticity - subgroup	Mean	0.381	0.365
	S.D.	0.604	0.581
Cross elasticity - nongroup	Mean	0.020	0.017
	S.D.	0.031	0.027

	(iii)			(iv)
# National groups	National	Regional	Local	National	Regional	Local
Price elasticity	-10.581	-8.759	-7.031	-9.292	-7.767	-6.185
Cross elasticity - subgroup	2.274	3.965	4.509	1.891	3.301	3.853
Cross elasticity - group	0.298	0.534	1.247	0.285	0.514	1.203
Cross elasticity-nongroup	0.021	0.017	0.011	0.018	0.015	0.009

	(iii)
# Total Groups	2		3
# National groups	0	1	2	3
Price elasticity	-3.069	-8.248	-9.321	-13.304
Cross elasticity - subgroup	3.065	5.036	2.543	2.209
Cross elasticity - group	0.610	0.973	0.449	0.297
Cross elasticity -nongroup	0.033	0.026	0.018	0.026
	(iv)
# Total Groups	2		3
# National groups	0	1	2	3
Price elasticity	-2.756	-7.318	-8.188	-11.657
Cross elasticity - subgroup	2.579	4.237	2.132	1.837
Cross elasticity - group	0.585	0.937	0.431	0.284
Cross elasticity -nongroup	0.028	0.022	0.015	0.022

	OLS	IV-1	IV-2	(i)	(ii)
$\ln ({\bar{s}}_{j / g})$	.75196518	.6968422	.74465457	.74233038	.72800485
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Price	-.00640203	-.07816025	-.01581186	-.01879599	-.01666353
	(0.000)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Speed	-.00335801	.06850762	.00605993	.00904605	.00592498
	0.0438	(0.028)	(0.044)	(0.002)	(0.051)
Wi-Fi dummy	-.31129912	-15116058	-.47087562	-.52138864	-.55958953
	0.0083	(0.032)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Bundle dummy	.22102907	35068263	.65240719	.78921698	12869006
	0.1287	(0.029)	(0.002)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Per capta revenue	.00207489	.00118705	.00195828	.0019213	.0018662
	0.0000	(0.022)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
% young population	.01413159	-.01326479	.01058527	.0094634	.00436183
	0.1686	(0.425)	(0.304)	(0.353)	(0.659)
MHDI - Schooling	4501507	40453439	44431489	44.247.239	43486739
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
% urban population	.02013414	.01298463	.01919972	.0189036	.01855084
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Log of Scale	.00112104	.00149023	.00116889	.00118402	.00111909
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Telefônica	-	-	-	-	.90820531
					(0.000)
Constant	-10678405	.22001024	-92501164	-8.797.403	-93414778
	(0.000)	(0.964)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Instruments	-	# of offers by competitors	Average regional prices	# of offers by competitors and Average regional prices
R²	0.7056	0.2109	0.6970	0.6908	0.7007
F Test	-	12.78	37.90	-	-
Sargan (p-value)	-	-	-	0.0109	0.0315

Variable	OLS	IV-1	IV-2	IV-3	(iii)	(iv)
$\ln ({\bar{s}}_{j / h g})$	.92317075	.92096751	.88786967	.91678846	.91198804	.9194391
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
$\ln ({\bar{s}}_{h / g})$	.89256121	.85402398	.30850405	.78696603	.67506251	.82861742
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.4644)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Price	-.00283702	-.00558684	-.04372195	-.01022885	-.01101813	-.00736717
	(0.000)	(0.0137)	(0.1496)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.004)
Speed	.00240728	.00539462	.0468635	.01044478	.01070664	.00733026
	(0.0847)	(0.0936)	(0.1667)	(0.0017)	(0.0012)	(0.0204)
Wi-Fi dummy	-.30092761	-.24049991	.64692203	-.12956021	.04008373	-.19931427
	(0.2229)	(0.3746)	(0.4257)	(0.6298)	(0.8931)	(0.4654)
Bundle dummy	.69624546	.81144579	23.956.895	10.034.981	10.201.742	.8854934
	(0.0069)	(0.0100)	(0.0967)	(0.0018)	(0.0011)	(0.0063)
Per capta revenue	.0009407	.00094638	.00105436	.00096125	.00099757	.00095122
	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.0023)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)
% young population	.01230007	.01349905	.0240298	.01442076	.01826012	.01403275
	(0.5539)	(0.5103)	(0.3834)	(0.4803)	(0.4395)	(0.4929)
MHDI - Schooling	23.782.773	23.370.078	16.591.769	22.482.668	2.289.971	23.061.636
	(0.0198)	(0.0152)	(0.4470)	(0.0191)	(0.0192)	(0.0156)
% urban population	.00913629	.0089265	.00474085	.00834161	.00853557	.00874052
	(0.0209)	(0.0220)	(0.5288)	(0.0349)	(0.0494)	(0.0255)
Log of Area	-.00456989	-.00325578	.0189915	-.00031009	.00797505	-.00224646
	(0.9122)	(0.9385)	(0.7849)	(0.9943)	(0.8642)	(0.9580)
Log of Scale	.00142951	.00138788	.00090588	.00133484	.00174188	.00136469
	(0.0003)	(0.001)	(0.0957)	(0.002)	(0.000)	(0.001)
Constant	-49.868.696	-49.537.414	-41.879.264	-48.424.239	-56.567.152	-49.203.451
	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.1546)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Instruments	-	Average regional prices	# offers by competitors	Average speed on group and subgroup	All	All but average speed on group
Underidentification test	-	19.652	3.451	19.320	26.119	24.875
Sargan	-	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.0102)	(0.0699)	(0.1975)

		OLS	IV-1	IV-2	IV-3	(iii)	(iv)
Priceelasticity	Mean	-3.864	-7.079	-35.298	-11.832	-10.232	-8.989
	S.D.	2.705	5.168	29.136	9.029	7.707	6.695
Cross elasticity - group	Mean	0.614	1.493	11.986	3.074	2.516	2.100
	S.D.	0.699	1.671	13.993	3.482	2.837	2.360
Cross elasticity - subgroup	Mean	0.237	0.333	0.292	0.393	0.381	0.365
	S.D.	0.380	0.531	0.427	0.622	0.604	0.581
Cross elasticity - nongroup	Mean	0.007	0.013	0.101	0.024	0.020	0.017
	S.D.	0.010	0.012	0.160	0.037	0.031	0.027

[1] Corresponding Author:
Tainá Leandro E-mail address: tainaleandro74@gmail.com

	(iii)				(iv)
Range of speed	0 to 5	6 to 20	21 to 49	> 50	0 to 5	6 to 20	21 to 49	> 50
Price elasticity	-4.739	-8.004	-10.143	-16.265	-4.163	-6.993	-8.890	-14.196
Cross elasticity - subgroup	2.701	2.803	2.266	2.102	2.277	2.360	1.849	1.700
Cross elasticity - group	0.667	0.690	0.175	0.061	0.641	0.660	0.168	0.058
Cross elasticity -nongroup	0.020	0.044	0.013	0.005	0.017	0.038	0.011	0.004

Brasil

Brasil

ESTIMANDO A DEMANDA POR BANDA LARGA NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE POR MEIO DE MODELOS DE ESCOLHA DISCRETA

RESUMO