A model of NAIRU for Brazil

PORTUGAL, MARCELO S.; MADALOZZO, REGINA C.

doi:10.1590/0101-31572000-1534

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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 20 (4) • Oct-Dec 2000 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572000-1534 copy

A model of NAIRU for Brazil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

In this article we present some estimates for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) using Brazilian Data. Two different models, Nishizaki (1997NISHIZAKI, F. The NAIRU in Japan: Measurement and its implications. OCDE, Paris, 1997.) and Debelle and Laxton (1997DEBELLE, G. e LAXTON, O. Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. IMF Staff Papers, vol. 44, Junho 1997.), are used. The NAIRU is estimated using both the IBGE and DIEESE data. The results show a linear Phillips curve for Brazil and allow a good estimate of the NAIRU. For the IBGE data we obtain a time varying NAIRU while for the DIEESE data best estimate generates a fixed NAIRU. Our results are in line with the acceleration of inflation during the eighties and the price stability that follow the Real Plan.

KEYWORDS:
Nairu; inflation; unemployment; Phillips curve

País	NAIRU (para o último período da amostra. 1995.2)	Desemprego efetivo para o segundo trimestre de 1995	α
Estados Unidos	6.1%	5.6%	0.33
Canadá	8.8%	9.5%	0.86
Grã-Bretanha	8.1%	8.3%	0.57

	ADF	Valor tabelado (5% de Significancia)
$π_{t} - π_{t}^{e}$ (Diferença entre a inflação e a inflação esperada	- 7.085	- 3.494
Desemprego IBGE	- 3.616	- 3.486
Desemprego DIEESE	- 4.432	- 3.511

Período	Desemprego	NAIRU Função Transf. IBGE	NAIRU Mod. Estrutural IBGE.	Desemprego DIEESE	NAIRU Função Transf. DIEESE	NAIRU Mod. Estrutural DIEESE
1984-1	7,69	n.d.	7.44	n d.	n.d.	n.d.
1984-2	7,85	6.45	7.49	n.d.	n.d.	n.d.
1984-3	7.13	6,54	7,09	n.d.	n.d.	n.d .
1984-4	5,79	5,54	6.45	n.d.	n.d.	n d.
1985-1	6,30	4,78	6,05	8,00	10,30	8,26
1985-2	5,88	5,09	5,52	9,03	10,30	8,14
1985-3	5,05	4,71	5,02	7,77	10,30	7,66
1985-4	3,78	5,34	4,43	6.40	10,30	7,14
1986-1	4,32	4,56	4,07	6.47	10, 30	6,73
1986-2	4,00	3,22	3,64	7,10	10,30	6,21
1986-3	3.44	3,05	3.41	5,90	10,30	5,79
1986-4	2,59	4,59	3,25	4,97	10,30	5,71
1987-1	3,28	4,31	3,03	4,97	10,30	5.23
1987-2	3,93	7,28	3,57	6,50	10,30	5,61
1987-3	4,24	6,84	4,21	6,67	10,30	6,56
1987-4	3.48	6,64	4,14	6,23	10,30	6,97
1988-1	4,14	6.45	3,89	6,93	10,30	7.19
1988-2	4,01	6,37	3,64	7,60	10,30	6.71
1988-3	3,95	5,52	3,91	7,03	10,30	6,93
1988-4	3,30	5,89	3,95	6,53	10,30	7,27
1989-1	4,01	5,77	3,76	7,23	10,30	7,49
1989-2	3,56	5,74	3,20	7,60	10,30	6,71
1989-3	3,20	5,70	3,17	6,30	10,30	6,19
1989-4	2,64	9,21	3,29	5,23	10,30	5,97
1990-1	3,59	7.42	3,33	5,93	10,30	6,19
1990-2	4,98	6,53	4,62	8,30	10,30	7.41
1990-3	4.43	5,63	4,39	7,83	10,30	7.73
1990-4	4,13	7,90	4,79	6,77	10,30	7,51
1991-1	5,51	7,83	5,25	7.43	10,30	7,69
1991-2	5.44	5,85	5,08	9,13	10,30	8,24
1991-3	4,07	6,18	4,03	8,20	10,30	8,09
1991-4	4,29	6,51	4,94	6,90	10,30	7,64
1992-1	5,81	7,06	5,55	8,30	10,30	8,56
1992-2	6,20	6,01	5,84	10,13	10,30	9,24
1992-3	5,95	6,08	5,92	9,60	10,30	9.49
1992-4	5,36	6,26	6,02	8,50	10.30	9,24
1993-1	5,88	5,94	5,62	8,87	10,30	9,13
1993-2	5.49	6,36	5,12	9,77	10,30	8,87
1993-3	5,20	6,24	5,17	8,33	10,30	8,23
1993-4	4,67	6,72	5,33	7,77	10,30	8,51
1994-1	5,60	6,00	5,35	8,83	10,30	9,09
1994-2	5,32	7,66	4,96	9,80	10,30	8,91
1994-3	5,33	6,64	5,30	8,87	10,30	8,76
1994-4	3,98	5,63	4,64	8,20	10,30	8,94
1995-1	4,36	5,73	4,11	8,67	10,30	8,93
1995-2	4.48	5,44	4,11	9,23	10,30	8,34
1995-3	4,97	5,22	4,94	8,97	10,30	8,86
1995-4	4,75	4,91	5.41	8,93	10,30	9,67
1996-1	5.78	4,94	5,52	9,23	10,30	9.49
1996-2	5,95	5,20	5,59	10,83	10,30	9,94
1996-3	5.46	5,83	5.42	10,17	10,30	10,06
1996-4	4,51	4,60	5,16	9,50	10,30	10,24
1997-1	5,55	4,06	5,30	9,30	10,30	9,56
1997-2	5,95	5,04	5,58	10,63	10,30	9,74
1997-3	5,85	5,66	5,82	10,30	10,30	10,19

Centro de Economia Política Rua Araripina, 106, CEP 05603-030 São Paulo - SP, Tel. (55 11) 3816-6053 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

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[TFN1] Fonte: Debelle e Laxton (1997DEBELLE, G. e LAXTON, O. Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. IMF Staff Papers, vol. 44, Junho 1997.)