Este trabalho baseia-se em alguns dados para identificar o século XIX como o período em que a economia do Brasil mais ficou atrasada em relação a países como os EUA, Canadá, Nova Zelândia, Austrália e alguns países da periferia da Europa. Para identificar a razão desse atraso, usamos um exercício com dados da imigração para fazer a decomposição das fontes de crescimento da proporção entre o PIB americano e o brasileiro. Os resultados indicam que o capital humano importado foi responsável por 59% a 88% deste crescimento total entre 1820 e 1900.

Atraso brasileiro; crescimento brasileiro; imigração; desenvolvimento comparativo

Autoria

ALEXANDRE RANDS BARROS

Presidente da Datamétrica Consultoria, Pesquisa e Telemarketing Ltda, e-mail: alexandre.rands@datametrica.com.br.Datamétrica Consultoria, Pesquisa e Telemarketing LtdaBrazilBrazilPresidente da Datamétrica Consultoria, Pesquisa e Telemarketing Ltda, e-mail: alexandre.rands@datametrica.com.br.

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Figuras | Tabelas | Fórmulas

Figuras (7)
Tabelas (6)
Fórmulas (6)

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Figure 1
1500^th proportion of per capita GDP in selected countries or groups to the Brazilian one (%)

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Figure 2
2008 proportion of per capita GDP in selected countries or groups to the Brazilian one (%)

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Figure 3
Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Western Offshoots to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

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Figure 4
Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Northern European Periphery to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

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Figure 5
Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Iberian Peninsula to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

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Figure 6
Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Southern Europe Periphery to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

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Figure 7
Proportion of Brazilian to benchmarking countries per capita GDP: Actual in 2008 and simulated with 19th century Brazilian growth rate equal to the one of the other country. Source: Author's calculation with data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

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Table 1
Proportion of per capita GDP to the Brazilian one if the proportion was 100 in 1500 and decennial per capita GDP growth rate of benchmarking countries

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Table 2
Decomposition of each period role (%) on Brazilian relative backwardness when compared to the USA.

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Table 3
Actual and surrogated per capita GDP in Brazil and the United States 1820 and 1900

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Table 4
Sources of inequalities in per capita GDP between the United States and Brazil in 1900

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Table 5
Definitions of variables and weights appearing in equation (5)

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Table 6
Decomposition of the role of each component on the total growth of difference on per capita GDP between the US and Brazil within 1820 and 1900

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Figure 1 1500^th proportion of per capita GDP in selected countries or groups to the Brazilian one (%)

Figure 2 2008 proportion of per capita GDP in selected countries or groups to the Brazilian one (%)

Figure 3 Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Western Offshoots to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Figure 4 Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Northern European Periphery to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Figure 5 Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Iberian Peninsula to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Figure 6 Index of proportions of per capita GDP, Southern Europe Periphery to Brazilian. 1500 = 100. Authors calculation. Original data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Figure 7 Proportion of Brazilian to benchmarking countries per capita GDP: Actual in 2008 and simulated with 19th century Brazilian growth rate equal to the one of the other country. Source: Author's calculation with data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Table 1 Proportion of per capita GDP to the Brazilian one if the proportion was 100 in 1500 and decennial per capita GDP growth rate of benchmarking countries

	USA		Australia		New Zealand		Canada		Western Offshoots		Finland		Norway		Sweden
Year	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth
1500	100		100		100		100		100		100		100		100
1600	94	-0.66	94	-0.66	94	-0.66	94	-0.66	94	-0.66	11	1.04	102	0.20	101	0.06
1700	115	2.06	87	-0.71	87	-0.71	94	0.01	104	1.03	122	1.00	103	0.11	100	-0.03
1820	195	4.50	80	-0.69	62	-2.81	140	3.41	186	4.99	107	-1.15	81	-1.96	78	-2.09
1900	603	15.19	592	28.38	634	33.74	429	15.03	592	15.56	217	9.28	181	10.55	200	12.52
2008	485	-2.00	394	-3.70	290	-6.98	393	-0.81	469	-2.13	334	4.08	291	4.46	233	1.43

	Switzerland		Northern Europe Periphery		Greece		Portugal		Spain		Iberian Peninsula		Southern Europe Periphery
Year	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth	Proportion	Growth
1500	100		100		100		100		100		100		100
1600	11	1.05	107	6.64	104	0.44	114	1.34	121	1.90	120	1.85	118	1.63
1700	123	1.00	113	0.56	107	0.21	118	0.30	112	-0.71	113	-0.63	112	-0.49
1820	107	-1.15	91	-1.76	92	-1.25	94	-1.83	94	-1.45	94	-1.53	93	-1.53
1900	357	16.31	239	12.79	184	9.10	127	3.76	159	6.76	151	6.16	152	6.34
2008	247	-3.36	261	0.81	235	2.30	148	1.46	185	1.42	177	1.47	180	1.59

Source: Calculated from data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Table 2 Decomposition of each period role (%) on Brazilian relative backwardness when compared to the USA.

Period	USA	Australia	New Zealand	Canada	Western Offshoots	Finland	Norway	Sweden	Switzerland	Northern Europe Periphery
0/1500	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.4	28.3	36.5	33.6	30.1
1600/1500	-4.2	-4.9	-6.2	-4.9	-4.3	7.8	1.3	0.5	7.6	4.7
1700/1600	12.9	-5.2	-6.7	0.1	6.6	7.4	0.7	-0.2	7.3	4.1
1820/1700	33.4	-6.1	-32.1	29.4	37.8	-10.4	-16.0	-19.0	-10.2	-15.5
1900/1820	71.6	145.9	218.3	81.8	74.9	53.3	53.9	70.7	88.7	70.3
1950/1900	-3.3	-21.1	-21.1	1.2	-4.2	2.6	10.8	16.3	-3.0	6.3
2008/1950	-10.4	-.8.7	-52.2	-7.6	-10.8	29.9	20.9	-4.8	-24.1	0.1
total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
	Greece	Portugal	Spain	Iberian Peninsula	Southern Europe Periphery
0/1500	8.5	51.4	44.8	46.3	43.4
1600/1500	4.7	16.5	16.8	17.3	15.6
1700/1600	2.2	3.7	-6.4	-6.0	-4.8
1820/1700	-16.2	-27.4	-15.6	-17.4	-17.8
1900/1820	74.6	36.5	46.7	45.0	47.2
1950/1900	-59.2	-53.2	-56.4	-60.8	-60.7
2008/1950	85.5	12.6	75.9	75.7	77.1

Source: Calculated from data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..

Table 3 Actual and surrogated per capita GDP in Brazil and the United States 1820 and 1900

		Brazil	USA	Proportion USA/Brazil
	Actual	646.11	1,257.25	1.95
1820	Surrogated	587.65	1,301.73	2.22
	Proportion	1.10	0.97
	Actual	678.44	4,090.79	6.03
1900	Surrogated	808.28	3,171.11	3.92
	Proportion	0.84	1.29

Source: Actual are from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011.. Surrogated are own estimation by method described in the appendix and the text.

Table 4 Sources of inequalities in per capita GDP between the United States and Brazil in 1900

	No bias on migration			Bias on migration for English average (US) and Minho's guessed average (Brazil)
Variable	Absolute value	Calculation formula	Percentage with respect to the actual difference	Absolute value	Calculation formula	Percentage with respect to the actual difference
Actual difference of per capita GDP between the United States and Brazil	3,412.35	(4,090.79- 678.44)	100.0%	3.412.35	(4,090.79- 678.44)	100.0%
Predicted difference of per capita GDP between the United States and Brazil, given the embodied human capital of immigrants	2,362.83	(3,171.11- 808.28)	69.2%	3,225.76	(4,008.57- 782.81)	94.5%
Deviation of predicted difference of per capita GDP between the United States and Brazil generated by the US deviation from its predicted value	919,68	(4,090.79- 3,171.11)	27.8%	82.22	(4,090.79- 4,008.57)	2.4%
Deviation of predicted difference of per capita GDP between the United States and Brazil generated by the Brazilian deviation from its predicted value	129.84	(808.28- 678.44)	3.8%	104.37	(782.81- 678.44)	3.1%

Source: Own estimations based on data by Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011., IBGEIBGE, Censo demográfico de 1872 no Brasil, Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 1872. and Dilligan (1911)Dillingham, W., Statiscal Review of Immigration 1820-1910, Washington: Government Printing Office, 1911..

Table 5 Definitions of variables and weights appearing in equation (5)

Source: Built by the autor

Table 6 Decomposition of the role of each component on the total growth of difference on per capita GDP between the US and Brazil within 1820 and 1900

	Unbiased migration			Biased migration for English (US) and Minho's (BR)
Decomposition	Value	Weight	Share	Value	Weight	Share
Growth of actual difference	4.58			4.58
Growth of US predicted component	1.44	2.13	0.67	1.97	2.21	0.95
Growth of Brazilian predicted component	0.38	0.96	0.08	0.33	0.96	0.07
Growth of US unpredicted component US	-21.68	-0.07	0.34	-1.89	-0.15	0.06
Growth of Brazilian unpredicted component	-3.22	0.10	-0.07	-2.79	0.10	-0.06
Aggregated components
Growth of predicted values			0.59			0.88
Growth of unpredicted components			0.41			0.12

Source: Own estimations based on data by Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011., IBGEIBGE, Censo demográfico de 1872 no Brasil, Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 1872. and Dilligan (1911)Dillingham, W., Statiscal Review of Immigration 1820-1910, Washington: Government Printing Office, 1911..

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[TFN1] Source: Calculated from data from Maddison (2011)Maddison, A., Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Maddison Project, 2011..