Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

The effects on Brazilian agribusiness from possible trade agreements with China, the United States and the European Union using a computable general equilibrium model

Abstract

This study aims to analyze trade opportunities by simulating a possible trade integration between Brazil and China, US and the EU. The goal is to identify the sectors most benefited by the eventual agreement, classified according to their degree of technological intensity, with emphasis on Brazilian agribusiness. We classified products by level of technological intensity according to the criteria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We used the computable general equilibrium model and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, version 9, to simulate the impacts on international trade and the welfare effects of a possible trade integration of Brazil with selected partners. Finally, the results show that welfare gains for Brazil, in all agreements, are mainly related to the better allocation of its productive resources, which would concentrate in the primary sectors, and of low technological intensity, which would add the agribusiness.

Keywords:
trade integration; agribusiness; general equilibrium model

Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural Av. W/3 Norte, Quadra 702 Ed. Brasília Rádio Center Salas 1049-1050, 70719 900 Brasília DF Brasil, - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: sober@sober.org.br