Impacts of agribusiness expansion on revenue, expenditure, and education indicators in the Matopiba region, 2007-2019

Abstract  This article analyzes the impacts of agribusiness expansion on revenue, expenditure, and education indicators in the municipalities of the Matopiba region between 2007 and 2019. The research uses data from reliable sources such as the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM), Index Mundi, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), Finanças do Brasil (Finbra), the School Census, and the Basic Education Assessment System (Saeb). The adopted methodology is based on the Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model with continuous treatment. To measure local exposure to agribusiness, the study considers the interaction between the percentage of soybean-planted area in the region and the structural break in international soybean prices in 2012. The results indicate positive impacts on revenue (R$ 3.82 per capita) and expenditure (R$ 2.49 per capita) indicators, but not on education indicators. It is concluded that the expansion of agribusiness did not generate significant educational benefits, highlighting the need for more effective public policies to convert fiscal revenues into educational improvements.

Keywords:
agricultural commodities; Matopiba; municipal indicators; TWFE