Política de Crédito do BNDES e Sustentabilidade de Crescimento do Setor Primário ²

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effectiveness of credit supply by the National Bank for Social and Economic Development (BNDES) on the growth sustainability of the primary sector, based on convergence criteria with the application of an autoregressive model with endogenous threshold, as proposed in Caner e Hansen (2001). The empirics were conducted in the period from January/2000 to September/2014 with quarterly data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the Gross Domestics Product (GDP) of the primary sector and from the BNDES for disbursements to that sector. The estimates allow us to infer that the growth dynamics of the proposed indicator, disbursement/GDP, is linear and globally explosive. These findings suggest that BNDES disbursements policy for the primary sector is not consistent with maintaining a trajectory of sustainable economic growth in the long run, which leads to inefficiency in its allocation of credit granting.

Key-words:
Growth sustainability; primary sector; BNDES credit granting; endogenous threshold.