Atratividade de Canaviais Paulistas Sob a Ótica da Teoria das Opções Reais

Abstract:

In the sugarcane production in Sao Paulo it was found that between crops 2007/08 and 2011/12 there was economic loss, a fact that leads to the goal of the present study: answer why these producers still remain providing sugarcane. Apart from the traditional viability analysis, the study incorporated the Real Options Theory analysis, which includes managerial flexibility on the investor decision model. Two sugarcane investment projects based on available information of Piracicaba and Sertãozinho regions were analyzed. Considering the discounted cash flow method, we obtained estimates pointing to the economic attractiveness of sugarcane planting in both regions, as shown by the positive response of the Net Present Values ​​calculated. This evidence was corroborated when using the Real Options Theory, which incorporates flexibility on the decision model. Price and quality of sugarcane and agricultural productivity presented the higher impact on the financial viability of projects. Actions focused on agricultural productivity gains are seen as motivating for financial gain, while in terms of public policy we mention the possibility of adjustments in C gasoline pricing systems and in the taxation on sugarcane byproducts.

Key-words:
Economic viability; Real Option Theory; Sugarcane.